When most voters go to cast their ballots for the Hall of Fame, two major questions usually enter their mind beyond “Should I vote for this guy?” One is obviously “Do I think steroids made this guy a HoF player?” The other is “Will I vote for a DH?” A lot of voters believe that if you didn’t play a position then you don’t deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. A fair statement. I don’t agree with it for two reasons. One is that if MLB is going to add a position, you’re going to have greats at that profession and ignoring them isn’t fair for Hall of Fame consideration if you’re great at it. The other reason I have is that I’d rather have a guy that’s awesome with the stick and not hurt me in the field than a guy who is awesome with the stick and hurt me in the field, a la Derek Jeter. The hall of fame has no player inducted as a DH for their primary position. Not a one. So, how am I going to get around this? I’m going to average the other offensive positions and take it a little bit lower than that for my baseline. The average for the offensive positions was 4.3 WAR/yr. I’m going to take it down to 4 WAR/yr because DH’s do tend to play longer than a few of the positions just due to the nature of the position. What I’m going to do is look at the prominent DH’s of today and yesterday and see who would make my cut for inductions. And, I suppose that we should start with the first player any kid from the 90s thinks of when he hears “DH”:
1) Edgar Martinez. WAR+ of 109, which is a B tier in my rankings. Why he isn’t in the Hall of Fame when guys like Dawson and Rice got in is a giant sin in terms of baseball history.
Well, who else out there is a DH that could be worthy? Let's see....
2) Frank Thomas. WAR+ of 100. Probably should be looked at as the standard for great DH’s. Hey, he even has the milestone of 500 HR that writers get all excited about.
3) Jim Thome. WAR+ of 90. Please retire Jim. You’ve been done for the last few years. I know you love the game, but you’re done.
4) David Ortiz. WAR+ of 75. Not yet there and I don’t know if he’ll ever get there. I don’t know if the writers will take sympathy for him playing for the Sawx, but it’s possible.
That’s everyone on offense. Next up is the top starter tiers (S and A). Some big big names are up there, and some are left off. It’ll be interesting to most people I’m sure.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
What Field Rules?
Right Field Rules! This was a common cheer at old Hall of Fame Games. And, in the context of baseball players, it does make sense. Right field has seen some of the greatest offensive and defensive players of all time, in fact I dare say the greatest player is most known as a right fielder. In RF, typically you’re a high offense player and play good defense, but not good enough for CF. And of course, one of the most common themes of a RF is a strong and accurate arm to make some of the longest throws in a game. It’s a tough position, but not as tough as center field or SS.
As I stated earlier, baseball history is loaded with great right fielders, including the 2 previous all time HR leaders in Ruth and Aaron. In order to be in a class with them, you better be a legendary player in your own right. The baseline for RF is 4.3 WAR/yr. The average RF had a 16.9 year career and a career WAR of 75.3.
Thoughts:
Tommy McCarthy got the absolute lowest score of anyone in the HoF. Lower than Dawson, Mazeroski, and everyone else!
Other than that little tidbit, I don’t think there’s anyone that is too hard to deal with on this list. Except for Winfield. He’s just another guy that hung on way past his prime to get to 3000 hits. He had some very good seasons, but only one of those seasons were above 6 WAR, the rest of his career was very good though, so maybe he belongs? Tough call on him. I think he’s Jim Rice with a longer career though, just by a quick look at his numbers (355 regular OBP, 364 wOBA, 129 wRC+) so, maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Larry Walker is the only one worth talking about. He was always a favorite of mine. And he has a WAR+ of 106. He should be in, definitely a top player of his time. He may be hurt by the Coors effect, but he played quite a few years for Montreal at a high level. I don’t know what’s keeping him out. Is he caught in the steroid winds?
2013:
Sammy Sosa comes up. Yes I know he won’t get in due to steroids. His WAR+ is 83 in any case.
2014: None worth talking about.
2015: Sheffield, an interesting case, comes eligible. Again, steriods. His WAR+ is 74 so he shouldn’t be in for any reason.
2016: None again.
Well, that’s it for most of the offensive players. I do need to talk about DH’s, which I’ll save for the next post. Soon pitchers will come up, and that will be a big BIG post. Will have to break it up somehow.
As I stated earlier, baseball history is loaded with great right fielders, including the 2 previous all time HR leaders in Ruth and Aaron. In order to be in a class with them, you better be a legendary player in your own right. The baseline for RF is 4.3 WAR/yr. The average RF had a 16.9 year career and a career WAR of 75.3.
| Name | WAR+ | Tier |
| Ruth | 216 | S |
| Aaron | 151 | S |
| Ott | 141 | A |
| Robinson, F | 134 | A |
| Clemente | 117 | B |
| Flick | 114 | B |
| Heilmann | 112 | B |
| Kaline | 112 | B |
| Crawford | 103 | C |
| Keeler | 98 | C |
| Youngs | 97 | C |
| Waner, P | 96 | C |
| Jackson | 94 | C |
| Gwynn | 92 | C |
| Cuyler | 86 | D |
| Hooper | 84 | D |
| Winfield | 82 | D |
| Thompson | 79 | F |
| Klein | 77 | F |
| Dawson | 76 | F |
| Rice, S | 71 | F |
| Slaughter | 70 | F |
| Kelly | 69 | F |
| McCarthy | 30 | F- |
Thoughts:
Tommy McCarthy got the absolute lowest score of anyone in the HoF. Lower than Dawson, Mazeroski, and everyone else!
Other than that little tidbit, I don’t think there’s anyone that is too hard to deal with on this list. Except for Winfield. He’s just another guy that hung on way past his prime to get to 3000 hits. He had some very good seasons, but only one of those seasons were above 6 WAR, the rest of his career was very good though, so maybe he belongs? Tough call on him. I think he’s Jim Rice with a longer career though, just by a quick look at his numbers (355 regular OBP, 364 wOBA, 129 wRC+) so, maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Larry Walker is the only one worth talking about. He was always a favorite of mine. And he has a WAR+ of 106. He should be in, definitely a top player of his time. He may be hurt by the Coors effect, but he played quite a few years for Montreal at a high level. I don’t know what’s keeping him out. Is he caught in the steroid winds?
2013:
Sammy Sosa comes up. Yes I know he won’t get in due to steroids. His WAR+ is 83 in any case.
2014: None worth talking about.
2015: Sheffield, an interesting case, comes eligible. Again, steriods. His WAR+ is 74 so he shouldn’t be in for any reason.
2016: None again.
Well, that’s it for most of the offensive players. I do need to talk about DH’s, which I’ll save for the next post. Soon pitchers will come up, and that will be a big BIG post. Will have to break it up somehow.
Saturday, August 4, 2012
Put 'Em In Coach, They're Ready to Play
Yeah, I know you could have seen the title from a mile away, but still one of the greatest baseball songs of all time so I had to do it.
Center field is probably the most glamorous position in all of baseball. And, as you’ll see below, has the highest grade of excellence in all of the hall of fame. Why is that? Well, unlike the other positions that are considered “up the middle” (C, 2B, SS), this one has always had impact offensive players at it, beginning with baseball’s birth. Center field tends to have some of the best atheltes on a team, and they tend to show it on both offense and defense. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at these guys and figure out who belongs where.
Like I said, CF has the highest grade of excellence for the Hall. They tend to have shorter careers (15.5 years), but have high impacts on their team and league (78.9 WAR for a career, 4.9 per year) in that amount of time. Imagine playing for 15 years and being worth 5 wins a year! That’s insane!
Here’s our tier rankings:
Thoughts:
Can I emphasize enough on how Lloyd Waner doesn’t deserve induction? He has the second lowest WAR+ of any player, and the lowest we’ll get to in the right fielder’s list. Probably got in because of his brother Paul Waner who does deserve election.
Really not much to say about this one. Mays, Speaker and Cobb are definitely the greatest CF of all time, and probably end up skewing the average a little higher than it should be. What hurts a guy like Kirby Puckett is that his career got cut short due to his injury, and he was definitely on track for a Mid Tier career I think, so I’m OK with him being inducted. Other than that, not a lot to mention with this list. Everyone falls in nicely, and pretty much where you would expect them to.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013: Dale Murphy and Bernie Williams are both on the ballot. They get scores of 61 (Bernie) and 69 (Murph) repectively. Can’t say that I endorse either of them very much, and no one else really should, right?
2013: Kenny Lofton becomes eligible. He’s a borderline candidate (86 WAR+), and tough to say. I’d probably go “No” for him because that’s just a little too low for me. But, when it comes to guys in the 80s I tend to be firmly against, just because I think too many of them water down the hall of fame too much. If they are just about 90 I probably would be OK with it (that’s within 10% of average HoFer don’t forget), and 86 is just a little too far south for me to feel strongly about him.
2014 and 2015: Blah
2016: Here we have a pair of CF who are considered strongly to be candidates for the Hall of Fame. That’s right, I’m talking about the immortal Gary Mathews and even more immortal Randy Winn.
....
OK, of course I mean Griffey and Edmonds. Griffey, considered the most automatic no doubt of the two, has a WAR+ of 103 IF you don’t look at his last few years, and 83 if you do. He hung on way too long, but if there’s that big of difference, I think you would have to recognize him as a HoFer. And for Jimmy, he has a WAR+ of either 97 or 86 if you treat him like Griffey. It’s a tricky thing to think about. I’d honestly would have no trouble voting for either of them because for a long time they were the best CF in the game, and for a long time too.
I think with the “D” ranks you have to get subjective. That’s where you either say “He had a span of greatness and then just hung around for a while, and that span of greatness was phenomenal baseball, so I vote for him.” OR you say “He played a long time, but he was merely a good player for that time and might have accrued good career numbers, but not really a great player.” For me, that means looking at a career and saying “Did they have a stretch of 6+ WAR seasons for more than 6 or 7 years?” And, with Griffey and Edmonds definitely did. So again, I’m putting them in my personal Hall of Fame, and the writers definitely will put Griffey in, and maybe Jimmy (though they definitely should). And to revisit Lofton from earlier, he did not do such a thing. When I’m all done with this, I’ll probably go back over my D tier and see if I find any like that and reassess my rankings. Maybe call it a “C-” tier or something.
Among active players, there aren’t many that have the playing time to be looked at. The only one I want to look at is Andruw Jones, who completed the “Holy Trinity” of CF of the mid 90s to mid 2000s, along with Griff and Edmonds. Jones was definitely the best defender of the bunch, and was no slouch with the bat. He gets a 93 WAR+, so definitely worthy of induction, especially if Griffey AND Edmonds get in. They were the best CF for 10 or so years, so I do have some hope.
Up next is the second to last position player tier with the Right Fielders. And yes, Babe Ruth got the highest WAR+ value of all time, as he rightfully should being the greatest damn ballplayer ever. After the RF we will take a pause to look at a more contemporary and derided position of designated hitters. Yes, I think they should be in the Hall of Fame and yes I will discuss it more then. After them comes the pitchers, who are the largest class of inductees.
Center field is probably the most glamorous position in all of baseball. And, as you’ll see below, has the highest grade of excellence in all of the hall of fame. Why is that? Well, unlike the other positions that are considered “up the middle” (C, 2B, SS), this one has always had impact offensive players at it, beginning with baseball’s birth. Center field tends to have some of the best atheltes on a team, and they tend to show it on both offense and defense. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at these guys and figure out who belongs where.
Like I said, CF has the highest grade of excellence for the Hall. They tend to have shorter careers (15.5 years), but have high impacts on their team and league (78.9 WAR for a career, 4.9 per year) in that amount of time. Imagine playing for 15 years and being worth 5 wins a year! That’s insane!
Here’s our tier rankings:
| Name | WAR+ | Tier |
| Mays | 151 | S |
| Speaker | 145 | S |
| Cobb | 145 | S |
| DiMaggio | 144 | A |
| Mantle | 139 | A |
| Hamilton | 108 | B |
| Doby | 96 | C |
| Averill | 93 | C |
| Ashburn | 92 | C |
| Snider | 86 | D |
| Combs | 86 | D |
| Wilson | 85 | D |
| Puckett | 84 | D |
| Carey | 75 | F |
| Duffy | 68 | F |
| Roush | 66 | F |
| Waner | 36 | F- |
Thoughts:
Can I emphasize enough on how Lloyd Waner doesn’t deserve induction? He has the second lowest WAR+ of any player, and the lowest we’ll get to in the right fielder’s list. Probably got in because of his brother Paul Waner who does deserve election.
Really not much to say about this one. Mays, Speaker and Cobb are definitely the greatest CF of all time, and probably end up skewing the average a little higher than it should be. What hurts a guy like Kirby Puckett is that his career got cut short due to his injury, and he was definitely on track for a Mid Tier career I think, so I’m OK with him being inducted. Other than that, not a lot to mention with this list. Everyone falls in nicely, and pretty much where you would expect them to.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013: Dale Murphy and Bernie Williams are both on the ballot. They get scores of 61 (Bernie) and 69 (Murph) repectively. Can’t say that I endorse either of them very much, and no one else really should, right?
2013: Kenny Lofton becomes eligible. He’s a borderline candidate (86 WAR+), and tough to say. I’d probably go “No” for him because that’s just a little too low for me. But, when it comes to guys in the 80s I tend to be firmly against, just because I think too many of them water down the hall of fame too much. If they are just about 90 I probably would be OK with it (that’s within 10% of average HoFer don’t forget), and 86 is just a little too far south for me to feel strongly about him.
2014 and 2015: Blah
2016: Here we have a pair of CF who are considered strongly to be candidates for the Hall of Fame. That’s right, I’m talking about the immortal Gary Mathews and even more immortal Randy Winn.
....
OK, of course I mean Griffey and Edmonds. Griffey, considered the most automatic no doubt of the two, has a WAR+ of 103 IF you don’t look at his last few years, and 83 if you do. He hung on way too long, but if there’s that big of difference, I think you would have to recognize him as a HoFer. And for Jimmy, he has a WAR+ of either 97 or 86 if you treat him like Griffey. It’s a tricky thing to think about. I’d honestly would have no trouble voting for either of them because for a long time they were the best CF in the game, and for a long time too.
I think with the “D” ranks you have to get subjective. That’s where you either say “He had a span of greatness and then just hung around for a while, and that span of greatness was phenomenal baseball, so I vote for him.” OR you say “He played a long time, but he was merely a good player for that time and might have accrued good career numbers, but not really a great player.” For me, that means looking at a career and saying “Did they have a stretch of 6+ WAR seasons for more than 6 or 7 years?” And, with Griffey and Edmonds definitely did. So again, I’m putting them in my personal Hall of Fame, and the writers definitely will put Griffey in, and maybe Jimmy (though they definitely should). And to revisit Lofton from earlier, he did not do such a thing. When I’m all done with this, I’ll probably go back over my D tier and see if I find any like that and reassess my rankings. Maybe call it a “C-” tier or something.
Among active players, there aren’t many that have the playing time to be looked at. The only one I want to look at is Andruw Jones, who completed the “Holy Trinity” of CF of the mid 90s to mid 2000s, along with Griff and Edmonds. Jones was definitely the best defender of the bunch, and was no slouch with the bat. He gets a 93 WAR+, so definitely worthy of induction, especially if Griffey AND Edmonds get in. They were the best CF for 10 or so years, so I do have some hope.
Up next is the second to last position player tier with the Right Fielders. And yes, Babe Ruth got the highest WAR+ value of all time, as he rightfully should being the greatest damn ballplayer ever. After the RF we will take a pause to look at a more contemporary and derided position of designated hitters. Yes, I think they should be in the Hall of Fame and yes I will discuss it more then. After them comes the pitchers, who are the largest class of inductees.
Friday, August 3, 2012
I Know I'm Going To Catch Fire in This One...
...But here we go anyways. Left field is another position like first base. It’s usually used for poor defenders but dangerous offensive players. For proof of this, I submit Manny Ramirez for your judgement, who I think is the definition of a player you put in left field. If you look back in history, baseball is littered with great players in left field, like Ralph Kiner and Ted Williams and Jim Rice, but also some lighter hitting guys like Lou Brock. Do they all deserve enshrinement? A lot of people would say “Yes” to at least 3/4 of those guys. But, I’m not most people. And, I’m trying to do this as objectively as I can. Remember, I’m a Cardinals fan, so I do my best to not let my bias show in these articles. But, being objective, does Lou Brock really compare well with the rest of these guys? I don’t know. If I’m trying to ignore the milestones like I said earlier, it’s tough to say. Only one way to find out.
The average left fielder in the Hall of Fame had a career of 17 years and 71.8 WAR, giving me a baseline of 4.19 WAR/yr. Remember, guys that get “C”s belong in the hall of fame because they are average hall of famers, not average players. Guys that get “D”s are borderline that got in either due to the veteran’s committee or due to getting one of those round milestones, or just because of a weak hall of fame class (which is why I think guys like Dawson and Rice got in). Here are the tiers for them:
Thoughts:
I cheated a little bit with Brock. If you take out his last couple of years, he made the cut. Otherwise, he was an F rank. But now, thinking back, maybe he does deserve the F rank. Let's look quickly at his career. First, his defense was poor at a poor defensive position, which makes it really bad. Even the staunchest of Brock supporters will agree with me. For his career, he had a score of -50.0 runs for fielding. Offensively he had an OPS+ of 109, which is bad for a left fielder. He also had a weighted OBA of 346 (which is OK) and a weighted RC+ of 115. Guys, these numbers aren’t that great. Especially for a left fielder. For kicks, let's look at Jim Rice. Rice had a weighted OBA of 375 (pretty good) and a weighted RC+ of 128 (which is decent, but for a power guy you’d think it would be higher). OK, that’s only part of offense, what about his baserunning, because that’s what Brock was famous for right? Well he did steal a lot of bases (which by the way, steals and caught stealings are worked into wOBA and wRC+), but was also caught a large number of times. He stole 938 and was caught 307 times, giving him 631 net steals made. Rickey, who holds the record for both caught stealing and stolen bases, stole 1406 bases, and was caught 335 times, giving him a net of 1071 steals made. As another example, Rock Raines had a net gain of 662 bases. So, while Brock’s base running was good, it wasn’t great. Brock was good in the post season, but it’s 21 more games. That’s barely a blip on the radar of a guy who played more than 2600 games. So no, those shouldn’t count for anything in this discussion. He had 2 very good seasons of 6+ WAR, but outside of those he was mostly a 3 or so WAR player, and that really isn’t Hall of Fame material. So I guess Brock is the definition of a borderline candidate, but I don’t think he’d get my vote if we were to vote objectively. Sentimentally I think I’d vote for him, probably due to the 3000 hits and him being a Cardinals icon. But objectively, I can’t say I think he has a strong case as a Hall of Fame player. I’m sorry Cardinal Nation, but it’s true.
Beyond Brock, can’t say there are many more to talk about. Ted Williams has the 3rd highest WAR+ value of players in the modern era, and 4th overall. I still think he’s the greatest hitter, hell greatest player since Babe Ruth. Rickey would have been higher if he had retired sooner, but he’s another guy that just stuck around forever, but only played more than 140 games twice after 1990, so it gets hard to accumulate value at that point.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Tim Raines has a WAR+ value of 81. He probably played way too long, and does suffer a bit from being under the same shadow as Rickey. But his offensive numbers are all better than Brock’s so what do I know?
2013:
He comes up. You know who I’m talking about, and you know what caveat I’m going to put here, so I’ll just say his WAR+ value is 182, and you knew it would be some ridiculous number. So I’m going to stop talking about him right now.
2014-2016:
No one worthy enough. And really, after you calculate Bonds’ WAR+, you really feel like none of them are worthy.
And, just as a callback to a previous post where I compared the two, Matt Holliday’s WAR+ right now is 118. Now, he hasn’t had 10 full seasons yet (this is year number 9), nor has he had a decline period, so I’m not passing judgement on him yet (nor should anyone). But it does show how great Holliday has been over his career, and the Coors excuse flies out the window because he will be spending a significant time with the Cardinals, and anyone that doesn’t like him can eat it!
Like I said before, I’m sure that I just royally pissed some people off. But, it’s ok. Let’s be able to discuss civilly what you think in terms of my list. Unless you just want to bash on Matt Holliday, in which case I must restate my statement before “Eat it!”
The average left fielder in the Hall of Fame had a career of 17 years and 71.8 WAR, giving me a baseline of 4.19 WAR/yr. Remember, guys that get “C”s belong in the hall of fame because they are average hall of famers, not average players. Guys that get “D”s are borderline that got in either due to the veteran’s committee or due to getting one of those round milestones, or just because of a weak hall of fame class (which is why I think guys like Dawson and Rice got in). Here are the tiers for them:
| Name | WAR+ | Tier |
| Williams, T | 175 | S |
| Kiner | 127 | B |
| Henderson | 113 | B |
| Yastrzemski | 113 | B |
| Burkett | 108 | B |
| Clarke | 108 | B |
| Delahanty | 107 | B |
| Simmons | 104 | C |
| Williams, B | 104 | C |
| Goslin | 101 | C |
| Stargell | 94 | C |
| Wheat | 93 | C |
| Medwick | 89 | D |
| Rice | 89 | D |
| Brock | 87 | D |
| Kelley | 86 | D |
| Manush | 74 | F |
| Hafey | 70 | F |
| O’Rourke | 59 | F |
Thoughts:
I cheated a little bit with Brock. If you take out his last couple of years, he made the cut. Otherwise, he was an F rank. But now, thinking back, maybe he does deserve the F rank. Let's look quickly at his career. First, his defense was poor at a poor defensive position, which makes it really bad. Even the staunchest of Brock supporters will agree with me. For his career, he had a score of -50.0 runs for fielding. Offensively he had an OPS+ of 109, which is bad for a left fielder. He also had a weighted OBA of 346 (which is OK) and a weighted RC+ of 115. Guys, these numbers aren’t that great. Especially for a left fielder. For kicks, let's look at Jim Rice. Rice had a weighted OBA of 375 (pretty good) and a weighted RC+ of 128 (which is decent, but for a power guy you’d think it would be higher). OK, that’s only part of offense, what about his baserunning, because that’s what Brock was famous for right? Well he did steal a lot of bases (which by the way, steals and caught stealings are worked into wOBA and wRC+), but was also caught a large number of times. He stole 938 and was caught 307 times, giving him 631 net steals made. Rickey, who holds the record for both caught stealing and stolen bases, stole 1406 bases, and was caught 335 times, giving him a net of 1071 steals made. As another example, Rock Raines had a net gain of 662 bases. So, while Brock’s base running was good, it wasn’t great. Brock was good in the post season, but it’s 21 more games. That’s barely a blip on the radar of a guy who played more than 2600 games. So no, those shouldn’t count for anything in this discussion. He had 2 very good seasons of 6+ WAR, but outside of those he was mostly a 3 or so WAR player, and that really isn’t Hall of Fame material. So I guess Brock is the definition of a borderline candidate, but I don’t think he’d get my vote if we were to vote objectively. Sentimentally I think I’d vote for him, probably due to the 3000 hits and him being a Cardinals icon. But objectively, I can’t say I think he has a strong case as a Hall of Fame player. I’m sorry Cardinal Nation, but it’s true.
Beyond Brock, can’t say there are many more to talk about. Ted Williams has the 3rd highest WAR+ value of players in the modern era, and 4th overall. I still think he’s the greatest hitter, hell greatest player since Babe Ruth. Rickey would have been higher if he had retired sooner, but he’s another guy that just stuck around forever, but only played more than 140 games twice after 1990, so it gets hard to accumulate value at that point.
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Tim Raines has a WAR+ value of 81. He probably played way too long, and does suffer a bit from being under the same shadow as Rickey. But his offensive numbers are all better than Brock’s so what do I know?
2013:
He comes up. You know who I’m talking about, and you know what caveat I’m going to put here, so I’ll just say his WAR+ value is 182, and you knew it would be some ridiculous number. So I’m going to stop talking about him right now.
2014-2016:
No one worthy enough. And really, after you calculate Bonds’ WAR+, you really feel like none of them are worthy.
And, just as a callback to a previous post where I compared the two, Matt Holliday’s WAR+ right now is 118. Now, he hasn’t had 10 full seasons yet (this is year number 9), nor has he had a decline period, so I’m not passing judgement on him yet (nor should anyone). But it does show how great Holliday has been over his career, and the Coors excuse flies out the window because he will be spending a significant time with the Cardinals, and anyone that doesn’t like him can eat it!
Like I said before, I’m sure that I just royally pissed some people off. But, it’s ok. Let’s be able to discuss civilly what you think in terms of my list. Unless you just want to bash on Matt Holliday, in which case I must restate my statement before “Eat it!”
Recent DFA and Released Players
It is only a few days after the trade deadline and we’re seeing a huge number of DFA and release candidates being given their walking papers. Among those let walk are Derek Lowe, Brett Tomko, Bobby Abreu, Yorvit Torrealba, Wil Nieves, Dewayne Wise, and Hideki Matsui. Of those listed I’d be surprised to see Abreu, Torrealba, or Nieves out of a job for too long.
As much as I like Matsui (still a Yankees fan here) I don’t know how much he has left in the tank, or if he was just not getting the playing time he needs to be productive. I am somewhat disappointed that, while I called it, Lowe does in fact still suck, people are still clamoring to give him a place on their 25 man roster, which predictably will end in him pitching effectively once (maybe twice) in their uniform, and a handful of terrible outings despite his 60%ish groundball ratio before they have either fallen completely out of contention, or come to the same conclusion that both the Indians and Braves have, Lowe is no longer a good pitcher, and at 39 years old, that’s not shocking, but I digress.
Abreu has no power at this point, he wasn’t exactly a masher before, but the 25-30 home run power he displayed earlier in his career is but a memory now. He is however still a line drive hitter, and he takes walks like a champ. He isn’t a defensive force in right field, but he is serviceable for a spot start in either corner if need be. I could see his veteran presence benefitting a team like the Pirates who could use a bit of effective outfield depth, or a team like the Orioles who have seen roughly no production from left field outside of the small number of games with Nolan Reimold out there. While Detroit has been looking for an “impact bat” for the middle of their lineup, having Abreu bat 3rd and constantly set the table for Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera isn’t necessarily a bad plan either, and it would allow them to bench or completely let go of Delmon Young who they have been less than enthused with. Abreu also would bring a very patient hitter to the fold for a team that has several free swingers. That said I proposed a not totally dissimilar set of options for Vladimir Guerrero after he was released by the Blue Jays, though he was on a minor league contract, so there may be more appeal to Abreu who has proved he can still provide something at the major league level. Of course, Abreu has been DFA’d twice this year, and it could be a red flag that he’s not content to work as a 4th outfielder/bench bat at this point in his career.
Both Torrealba and Nieves have been reasonably productive, if not exactly stellar bats this season, and deserve a look from a contending team with a bit less depth behind the plate than they’re satisfied with. My gut reaction was that the Yankees could get some more value than they have gotten out of Chris Stewart in a platoon with Russell Martin, and while Girardi may be able to eek out some inflated production from Martin when he sees more or less only lefties, Stewart’s hollow batting line has actually been above replacement level for his position, and he’s defensively better than either catcher on the market. That said, I’d be surprised to see neither of them make an appearance on a new major league roster before too long.
Wise may also be a candidate to get picked up in relatively short order. He was given his outright release and can sign anywhere. He may only get a minor league contract but he’s a passable center fielder, and a good left fielder with an acceptable bat for a 4th outfielder. He’s excellent organizational depth for anyone looking if he’s willing to take a minor league deal and that may be the case, Bill Hall did the same with the Yankees due to their traveling circus AAA team this season. No home stadium and none of the luxuries that the majors afford players can be rough, I certainly understand walking away from that.
It would be a mistake for any team to not look at what options they have available to them through waivers, DFAs, released players, and through their own systems. I certainly expect every team in the league to do their due diligence with every player out there. This short list of examples etc isn’t by any means gospel, but these are players that stand out to me as players who will have suitors sooner rather than later.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Prelude to the Outfield
Let me be frank about this: our old benchmarks of 300 wins, 3000 hits and 500 homeruns I think need to be thrown out the window when it comes to the Hall of Fame. Why do I think that? Well, as I mentioned before, these numbers at some point become about longevity more than performance. While the numbers are nothing to sneeze at, too many players will just hang around to reach these “hallowed numbers” and get induction whether or not their careers as a whole deserve it. Would you think Craig Biggio was a HoFer without him reaching the 3000 hit plateau his last year? You’d be, at best and honestly, on the fence, or you should be. How about Eddie Murray? He ranked pretty low on my tier list, and with good reason. He was a good player for a long time. His career high for HR was 33 and only 4 times in his career did he hit 30 HR. For a first baseman, that’s not that great. His career average for HR was 27. He created 6.1 runs per game, which is good, but plenty of 1B have higher numbers (Johnny Mize, for instance, had an RC27 of 8.4). Without those benchmarks, he’d probably not be in the Hall of Fame. Am I saying he doesn’t belong? Not necessarily. He had some great years of 6+ WAR (5 of them according to fangraphs), but when those are scattered across a 21 or so year career, the shine comes off the apple somewhat. A lot of people would say “But he put fear in the opposing team.” Well yeah, but so did guys like Dave Kingman and Dale Murphy and Howard Johnson who should never be considered for the Hall. Plus that whole fear factor thing doesn’t do it for me anyways, since it tends to be anecdotal. Now, look at a guy like Ripken. Ripken absolutely would be a hall of famer regardless if he had 2750 hits or 3000 hits. Why? Great defense at shortstop combined with great power at shortstop, not to mention the streak (which was great, but not what put him into the hall). Had he been a first baseman or left fielder, then things may be different, but as is, he was one of the best SS of all time. 3000 hits for him was more or less the icing on the cake of awesomeness, not just the reason for his greatness. Could you say that about a guy like Biggio? Or Murray? It’s tough to say that, because they may have had some great seasons, but had more where they were just very good players.
Why do I bring this up? Because we are moving on to the OF, where we have some of the toughest distinctions to draw, because so many of baseball’s greatest players were from the OF. Think back, you’ve got guys like Cobb, Ruth, Williams (T and B), Speaker, Mantle, DiMaggio, Yaz, and so on. Yet, we also get guys who were very good players that stuck around forever just to get that 3000 hit milestone, or just to make it to 500 HR, where you could say “If it weren’t for 3000 hits, I wouldn’t think he was a HoF player.” The lists in the next three days are going to probably piss some people off. To those that are going to be upset, let me say a couple of things:
1) I’m sorry. I’m looking at this stuff as objectively as I can. Some of my favorite players are getting “the boot” when it comes to the rankings. I’m a Cards fan and I have bounced a team treasure in Red Schoendienst, and I actually cried a bit when I saw that. I’m not doing this to be mean guys, I’m doing it to be objective. What’s the point of a HoF if you don’t have good, solid standards for it?
2) If you do want to argue a certain player’s legitimacy, I’m more than willing to listen to arguments. Just please don’t use one of the following:
a) Post season numbers. They’re a small sample size, they fluctuate wildly and when given a full seasons worth of data, they will tend to resemble career numbers.
b) You had to watch him play. While I think that can help augment data, and be good for supplementing conclusions, I find that tends to add bias to what you look up. I had wanted to do this project for a while and I decided to do nothing in regards to all time players for a week before I started to clear my mind of any preconceptions.
c) He had [insert milestone here]. Sorry, but I want more than that. Did he get there by just being a good player for 20+ years? Was he productive? And no, the number of pennants his team won during that stretch does not equal productivity or greatness. If it did, Luis Sojo with his 5 WS rings would be inducted. Great players are great players, regardless of teams they play for.
That’s all I wanted to say for now. I’m not trying to end discussions or anything in terms of the Hall of Fame, but I am trying to start and encourage them. It’s one of the greatest things to do in life, so please, let's keep it coming and above all, keep it civil.
Why do I bring this up? Because we are moving on to the OF, where we have some of the toughest distinctions to draw, because so many of baseball’s greatest players were from the OF. Think back, you’ve got guys like Cobb, Ruth, Williams (T and B), Speaker, Mantle, DiMaggio, Yaz, and so on. Yet, we also get guys who were very good players that stuck around forever just to get that 3000 hit milestone, or just to make it to 500 HR, where you could say “If it weren’t for 3000 hits, I wouldn’t think he was a HoF player.” The lists in the next three days are going to probably piss some people off. To those that are going to be upset, let me say a couple of things:
1) I’m sorry. I’m looking at this stuff as objectively as I can. Some of my favorite players are getting “the boot” when it comes to the rankings. I’m a Cards fan and I have bounced a team treasure in Red Schoendienst, and I actually cried a bit when I saw that. I’m not doing this to be mean guys, I’m doing it to be objective. What’s the point of a HoF if you don’t have good, solid standards for it?
2) If you do want to argue a certain player’s legitimacy, I’m more than willing to listen to arguments. Just please don’t use one of the following:
a) Post season numbers. They’re a small sample size, they fluctuate wildly and when given a full seasons worth of data, they will tend to resemble career numbers.
b) You had to watch him play. While I think that can help augment data, and be good for supplementing conclusions, I find that tends to add bias to what you look up. I had wanted to do this project for a while and I decided to do nothing in regards to all time players for a week before I started to clear my mind of any preconceptions.
c) He had [insert milestone here]. Sorry, but I want more than that. Did he get there by just being a good player for 20+ years? Was he productive? And no, the number of pennants his team won during that stretch does not equal productivity or greatness. If it did, Luis Sojo with his 5 WS rings would be inducted. Great players are great players, regardless of teams they play for.
That’s all I wanted to say for now. I’m not trying to end discussions or anything in terms of the Hall of Fame, but I am trying to start and encourage them. It’s one of the greatest things to do in life, so please, let's keep it coming and above all, keep it civil.
They got little hands and little eyes...
Shortstop is the one position where defense is the only thing that matters. Teams that don’t have good defensive SS don’t tend to last long into the season, with the exception of the Yankees when they had a strong pitching staff to get around Jeter’s shortcomings. But quite recently, there has been a big increase of offense available at the position. We had Ripken come up in the 80s ticketed as the first “big man” shortstop, and then 10 years later guys like A-Rod, Jeter, Nomar and to a lesser extent Tejada and Renteria come into the fold and just blow guys like Brendan Ryan and Omar Vizquel away with solid defense and big time run production. I still think that defense is highly more important (which is why when Theriot was booted from the Cardinals SS position and replaced with Furcal they started to do a bit better) at shortstop than offense is, and I’m sure most people in baseball will agree with me. Certainly, the Hall of Fame does, because when you look at this list, there are a lot of guys on there who you could call “All glove” or “No hit” (Looking at you Nellie Fox). So, the question is, does defensive greatness make up for offensive shortcomings at this position? Well, we’re going to find out right now.
The average HoF SS played for 16.6 years and had a career WAR of 69.5, for a baseline of 4.2 WAR/yr. And already, I think some of the rankings may come as a bit of a shock, considering how valuable defense is, but even more valuable is good defense with good offense.
Thoughts:
Not a whole lot to say about this grouping. Yount’s value slips a bit from his late career move to CF (I did correct a little for that, not much) and Ripken’s gets hurt a bit by his few years at third (again, a little correction made), but other than that...I think this filled out the most smoothly. Looking back, I was surprised at just how good Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizzuto were. I thought Rizzuto especially would end up booted, but he was a terrific defender and a decent enough offensive player. He had a score of 107 for his fielding on fangraphs, which is incredible given his 12 or so year career. Not the greatest SS, obviously, but definitely more deserving of induction than I originally thought. And, no real complaints about the ones dropped off in the F category.
I’m not going to do more totals until we hit the end, so let's get right into upcoming ballots:
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Alan Trammel: Before I run the numbers, let me say that I think he’s been very overlooked by the writers and I have a gut feeling like he belongs. But, let me also say that if he ranked in the D tier, as with most of them, I will say he doesn’t belong because I don’t feel like adding to the bottom of the list. Now to calculate it....88. So close but not quite. I like the guy, but just not quite there I guess. Oh well.
2013: No one worth talking about. And no, Royce Clayton isn’t worth talking about.
2014: No new SS popping up. Weird, thought there would be some.
2015: Nomar is up on the ballot. Again, before running numbers, I’m going to say “No”, mostly due to the injuries he sustained. And he comes out at 73. Tough break.
2016: David Eckstein. I’m pretty much contractually obligated to calculate his WAR+ value. And even if I weren’t, I’d do it anyway for funsies. 45. Damn, wanted it to be the lowest ever. But, he had the most heart.
For the record, Derek Jeter despite his defensive inefficiencies, or perhaps because of them, has a WAR+ right now of 106. So, take that for people who think I hate anything and everything about the Yankees, even though I totally do.
That’s it for the infield, I guess. Up next, we go to left field and start getting some very interesting things happening. And, we will get to look at one of my favorite players of all time, Ted Williams.
The average HoF SS played for 16.6 years and had a career WAR of 69.5, for a baseline of 4.2 WAR/yr. And already, I think some of the rankings may come as a bit of a shock, considering how valuable defense is, but even more valuable is good defense with good offense.
| Name | WAR+ | Tier |
| Wagner | 170 | S |
| Ripken | 132 | A |
| Boudreau | 128 | B |
| Vaughan | 127 | B |
| Appling | 112 | B |
| Davis | 108 | B |
| Tinker | 106 | B |
| Reese | 104 | C |
| Cronin | 100 | C |
| Sewell | 100 | C |
| Yount | 98 | C |
| Rizzuto | 94 | C |
| Larkin | 94 | C |
| Smith | 93 | C |
| Jennings | 89 | D |
| Bancroft | 86 | D |
| Jackson | 85 | D |
| Aparicio | 84 | D |
| Wallace | 78 | F |
| Maranville | 57 | F |
| Ward | 55 | F |
Thoughts:
Not a whole lot to say about this grouping. Yount’s value slips a bit from his late career move to CF (I did correct a little for that, not much) and Ripken’s gets hurt a bit by his few years at third (again, a little correction made), but other than that...I think this filled out the most smoothly. Looking back, I was surprised at just how good Pee Wee Reese and Phil Rizzuto were. I thought Rizzuto especially would end up booted, but he was a terrific defender and a decent enough offensive player. He had a score of 107 for his fielding on fangraphs, which is incredible given his 12 or so year career. Not the greatest SS, obviously, but definitely more deserving of induction than I originally thought. And, no real complaints about the ones dropped off in the F category.
I’m not going to do more totals until we hit the end, so let's get right into upcoming ballots:
Upcoming Ballots:
Pre-2013:
Alan Trammel: Before I run the numbers, let me say that I think he’s been very overlooked by the writers and I have a gut feeling like he belongs. But, let me also say that if he ranked in the D tier, as with most of them, I will say he doesn’t belong because I don’t feel like adding to the bottom of the list. Now to calculate it....88. So close but not quite. I like the guy, but just not quite there I guess. Oh well.
2013: No one worth talking about. And no, Royce Clayton isn’t worth talking about.
2014: No new SS popping up. Weird, thought there would be some.
2015: Nomar is up on the ballot. Again, before running numbers, I’m going to say “No”, mostly due to the injuries he sustained. And he comes out at 73. Tough break.
2016: David Eckstein. I’m pretty much contractually obligated to calculate his WAR+ value. And even if I weren’t, I’d do it anyway for funsies. 45. Damn, wanted it to be the lowest ever. But, he had the most heart.
For the record, Derek Jeter despite his defensive inefficiencies, or perhaps because of them, has a WAR+ right now of 106. So, take that for people who think I hate anything and everything about the Yankees, even though I totally do.
That’s it for the infield, I guess. Up next, we go to left field and start getting some very interesting things happening. And, we will get to look at one of my favorite players of all time, Ted Williams.
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