Good Idea/Bad Idea Yankees Style

Who else remembers the Animaniacs? Well, it may be time to introduce a new type of article here. We’re going to play a game of “Good idea, Bad idea”. Today’s article will focus around the Yankees most recent roster moves.

Good Idea: Moved David Phelps to the rotation in the wake of CC Sabathia's injury. In all honesty Phelps has pitched well enough both as a starter and as a reliever to warrant a longer look in the rotation. It’s not the perfect scenario to take over for the big lefty, but if Phelps can put together a few solid starts everyone will be happy, and he might just get a chance to compete for a starting spot next spring. I can’t fault Cashman, or anyone else involved for making this call. The guys over at River Ave Blues have been calling for Phelps to get another shot in the rotation for a while now. His splits are pretty positive, he hasn’t been giving up an overwhelming number of line drives, he’s striking batters out frequently, and has managed to avoid the long ball reasonably well. The biggest gripe I could make about this one is that he hasn’t been stretched out for starting, and at least this first start could be a short one, I’m thinking 80 pitches, maybe 5 innings if he’s economical? I could be wrong, he’s only pitched once this week in a game, and twice in the last 14 days. Maybe the Yanks have been quietly stretching him out in anticipation of a move to the rotation.

Bad Idea: Signing Derek Lowe. I get the premise, he’s going to be the low man in the ‘pen, he will be there to take the 4 inning hit when a starter gets lit up, he’ll be there to slowly allow the opposing team back into a blowout, but most importantly, he’ll be there to protect actually valuable arms from taking the same punishment. That said, I don’t like it. I don’t like signing a pitcher because of his “pennant race experience” or his “postseason success”. His pedigree would hold up if it weren’t currently so covered in the mess of his recent failures. Yes he has had success earlier this season, yes he’s pitched out of the bullpen before, and yes he’s almost free. Knowing all of that, he still sucks, and I’m still leary of his ability to be productive. Everyone will throw it around like it’s reason to justify the signing, Lowe still gets ground balls with great frequency; but he also doesn’t strike anyone out. I’m not saying a pitcher needs to throw 100 mph or strike out more than 1 per inning to succeed, I still root for Chien-Ming Wang to return to form, I like seeing the defense involved in a lot of plays, and I like seeing pitchers go deep into games, but he’s walking batters at a higher than average (3.4/9) rate and striking out almost exactly 3 per 9. That is not now, nor has it ever been a recipe for success. I said he’d come back down to earth, and he came back down so hard that the Indians are willing to pay him to pitch somewhere else.

This is one of those moments where it’d be great if I were wrong, but I just don’t see it. I don’t see how I can be wrong about Lowe here. Maybe he throws a little harder out of the ‘pen, maybe Russell Martin can keep him from tipping pitches, but to count on either of those things would just be foolish.

Recent DFA and Released Players

It is only a few days after the trade deadline and we’re seeing a huge number of DFA and release candidates being given their walking papers. Among those let walk are Derek Lowe, Brett Tomko, Bobby Abreu, Yorvit Torrealba, Wil Nieves, Dewayne Wise, and Hideki Matsui. Of those listed I’d be surprised to see Abreu, Torrealba, or Nieves out of a job for too long.

As much as I like Matsui (still a Yankees fan here) I don’t know how much he has left in the tank, or if he was just not getting the playing time he needs to be productive. I am somewhat disappointed that, while I called it, Lowe does in fact still suck, people are still clamoring to give him a place on their 25 man roster, which predictably will end in him pitching effectively once (maybe twice) in their uniform, and a handful of terrible outings despite his 60%ish groundball ratio before they have either fallen completely out of contention, or come to the same conclusion that both the Indians and Braves have, Lowe is no longer a good pitcher, and at 39 years old, that’s not shocking, but I digress.

Abreu has no power at this point, he wasn’t exactly a masher before, but the 25-30 home run power he displayed earlier in his career is but a memory now. He is however still a line drive hitter, and he takes walks like a champ. He isn’t a defensive force in right field, but he is serviceable for a spot start in either corner if need be. I could see his veteran presence benefitting a team like the Pirates who could use a bit of effective outfield depth, or a team like the Orioles who have seen roughly no production from left field outside of the small number of games with Nolan Reimold out there. While Detroit has been looking for an “impact bat” for the middle of their lineup, having Abreu bat 3rd and constantly set the table for Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera isn’t necessarily a bad plan either, and it would allow them to bench or completely let go of Delmon Young who they have been less than enthused with. Abreu also would bring a very patient hitter to the fold for a team that has several free swingers. That said I proposed a not totally dissimilar set of options for Vladimir Guerrero after he was released by the Blue Jays, though he was on a minor league contract, so there may be more appeal to Abreu who has proved he can still provide something at the major league level. Of course, Abreu has been DFA’d twice this year, and it could be a red flag that he’s not content to work as a 4th outfielder/bench bat at this point in his career.

Both Torrealba and Nieves have been reasonably productive, if not exactly stellar bats this season, and deserve a look from a contending team with a bit less depth behind the plate than they’re satisfied with. My gut reaction was that the Yankees could get some more value than they have gotten out of Chris Stewart in a platoon with Russell Martin, and while Girardi may be able to eek out some inflated production from Martin when he sees more or less only lefties, Stewart’s hollow batting line has actually been above replacement level for his position, and he’s defensively better than either catcher on the market. That said, I’d be surprised to see neither of them make an appearance on a new major league roster before too long.

Wise may also be a candidate to get picked up in relatively short order. He was given his outright release and can sign anywhere. He may only get a minor league contract but he’s a passable center fielder, and a good left fielder with an acceptable bat for a 4th outfielder. He’s excellent organizational depth for anyone looking if he’s willing to take a minor league deal and that may be the case, Bill Hall did the same with the Yankees due to their traveling circus AAA team this season. No home stadium and none of the luxuries that the majors afford players can be rough, I certainly understand walking away from that.

It would be a mistake for any team to not look at what options they have available to them through waivers, DFAs, released players, and through their own systems. I certainly expect every team in the league to do their due diligence with every player out there. This short list of examples etc isn’t by any means gospel, but these are players that stand out to me as players who will have suitors sooner rather than later.

Cleveland Indians - Looking at the Rotation

Continuing with the AL Central, it’s time to take a look at the Cleveland Indians and what their rotation is going to be able to do for them this season. Cleveland has put together a mostly young rotation, with one notable exception. Derek Lowe who at age 39 is seeing a great start to his season. The tribe has been very good in the early going, so far having amassed a 12-10 record and lead their division despite their rotation, and that can be attributed in large part to some good fortune and a surprising offense.

Derek Lowe has been effective in eating a lot of innings, but he hasn’t really been a good starter since leaving the Dodgers after their 2008 campaign. and hasn’t seen much of the American League since 2004 with the Red Sox. Lowe hasn’t been striking a lot of batters out (9), but has also been able to limit the walks so far as well (10) over his 31 & ⅔ innings. His .289 BABIP looks sustainable, especially because he’s been inducing a lot of ground balls. His groundball to flyball ratio is a nice 1.30 (slightly more than 9 out of every 16 balls in play are staying on the ground) which is pretty par for the course with Lowe. The thing that’s most a red flag here is that 18% of fly balls are staying on the infield for him this year, and with a 7% career mark, that probably won’t last, and with that his home run totals will start to creep back up. Lowe gives up a lot of hits, and has been able to keep the ball in the yard so far, but he’s doing so right now at a rate he wasn’t able to achieve in his best seasons, so I wouldn’t count on it for the year. I think Lowe could benefit from a change of scenery, and with the AL having not seen him in the last 7 years could look a lot better than he did in Atlanta, but he won’t keep up this pace.

Justin Masterson hasn’t been as bad as his ERA (5.40) would make you believe. He’s had two outings where he’s gone 8 innings or further and has kept the damage very minimal in both of those starts, between them however he’s not made it past the 5th, and has given up no less than 3 earned runs in each, peaking in an 8 run 3 & ⅔ inning debacle. Masterson has put up a very low (by his standards) .253 BABIP which will probably come up a bit but his walk numbers will probably come back down (17 over 30 innings), and that’ll help keep his WHIP from climbing. Masterson has been keeping the ball down slightly better than Lowe overall, but hasn’t had the same luck with the long ball so far. I think Masterson will look to build on his two great starts, and can probably compile a pretty good season despite a few rough outings here and there.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been exceedingly mediocre so far, he’s walked 20 batters in his 28 & ⅔ innings and given up 5 home runs so far. Jimenez came out of his first start looking pretty good, too many walks for my taste, but that’s a minor complaint if he’s able to go 7 innings and give up 2 runs. He has however only made 1 quality start since then, and has walked no less than 3 batters in every  game. Jimenez has also been leaving the ball where batters can put it in the seats far too much so far, roughly 10 out of every 16 balls in play are either fly balls or line drives, While Jimenez was seeing success in colorado he was able to get batters to put the ball on the ground about ½ of the time. Compounding that issue he’s walked 15% of batters he’s faced, and struck out only 10.5%. Jimenez was supposed to be an ace coming over from colorado, but he hasn’t shown us any of the guy who placed 3rd for the 2010 Cy Young since, and it’s not looking to get better. I’d expect him to right the ship here to a certain degree, but I just don’t know if he’ll do it. His stat line is so hugely divergent from what he’s done in the past that I have to assume there’s a mechanical issue he’s trying to work through, or he’s been hiding an injury of some kind since last year.

Josh Tomlin has started off the year much like Masterson or Jimenez, He looks to be righting the ship a bit now with a quality start last night and an 8 inning 1 run effort against the Mariners on April 19th Tomlin’s ERA could be as much a product of bad luck at the moment as it is a product of anything else. The biggest red flag to me is that 24% of balls in play against him hav ebeen line drives, so despite his solid strikeout (19) and walk (5) numbers over 27 & ⅓ innings, he’s getting hit hard (10 doubles and 3 home runs) when he gets hit. Tomlin’s really only 1 good start from his ERA looking a lot like last year’s, and that’s fine for a 4th starter, and if he puts up near league average production in his second full season, I don’t think Cleveland could really be upset with him.

Jeanmar Gomez has a very small sample to work from so far this year, after being ejected for throwing at Mike Moustakas but has looked very good so far. after a 10 start audition last year it looks like Gomez will get a chance to show the league what he can do in a full year’s work this season. Gomez has been very accurate with his pitches, having issued only 3 walks in 15 & ⅓ innings, and having struck out 13. He’s keeping the ball down exceedingly well, and even as that regresses, that mentality will serve him well going forward. I think Gomez needs to show us another good start or two before we can start to whisper about a breakout season, but in his 4 appearances, he’s been very good and could be a real surprise for Cleveland going forward.

I almost forgot the eventual return of Fausto Carmona Roberto Hernandez who has put up two good years over a 6 year career, Clearly he’s capable of great things, but I don’t see him being a huge factor this year, he’s just not dependable enough, and spending a large portion of the season in the Dominican Republic because of his legal issues probably won’t help him much.

The Tribe doesn’t have a great pitching staff, but if they can milk some real quality innings out of a few young arms as Derek Lowe comes back down to earth they’ll look pretty good  by the end of the year. That all said, Jimenez looks to have been a real bust so far