Good Idea Bad Idea: a Hall-Mac Card

You can always count on me to drum up an awful pun.

I'm a McGwire fan.  No amount of steroids or self righteous angst from the writers can make me forget the joy that he brought me in 98 when he hit 70 HR, nor should it.  But, I'm not here to debate whether or not steroids should preclude someone from induction.  I'm here to determine if someone is statistically viable for the HoF.

Good Idea: The man almost single handedly brought people back to baseball and the sport to prominence.  Ripken's streak started it, but I believe that brought back long time fans.  Mac brought people that were new fans to baseball.  The sight of his swing resulting in HR after HR and hitting over 500 ft is incredible to me.
Statistically, people point to his low batting average.  While it's true that he only hit about 260, most of his career that was above league average.  More importantly, since batting average is a terrible stat, he OBP'd 394 for his career, and had an OPS+ of 163.  Think about that for a minute.  For his entire 15 year career, he was roughly better than 63% of the league according to this one decent but crude calculation.  He also had a wOBA of 415 and a wRC+ of 157.  That wRC+ is 11th all time, and 4th best for a right handed hitter, behind Hornsby, Pujols, and Foxx.  He's probably the best pure power right handed hitter of all time, as evidenced by his 325 ISO which trails only Babe Ruth on the all time list.  Put him in.

Bad Idea: We all know that Mac used steroids.  We know that his numbers may be slightly tainted.  I do question how much effect roids have on a player's stats, but also recognize that they may help you play through minor injuries more than you would have been able to without juicing.  It's a tough call and if the writers say they aren't equipped enough to answer those questions then I don't have much of a problem with him not being in the Hall.  Statistically, he was a poor defender at the easiest spot on the diamond, and was never a good baserunner.  Also, the low BA does suggest that he was almost an all or nothing hitter, as his BABIP in his career was 255 (well below league average).  He struck out 20% of the time and only had about 7600 PA.  His career wasn't that long due to injuries (which possibly could be tied to steroids), and there are just too many questions surrounding his numbers to put him in.

Verdict: I'm too biased, so I'm going to let my friend Foment come up with a verdict.  However, I will say that he scores at roughly the same level as a Johnny Mize type player on my list, who was inducted by the VC and should have been in by the writers.  I believe that without roids he'd be in, and I honestly believe he had the talent and smarts to play well.

Melky Cabrera: All-star MVP, Unreal Outfielder, Possible Free Agent

Melky Cabrera was named the All-star MVP last night and carried his career year into the exhibition without a hitch. Cabrera who only 2 years ago was non-tendered by the Braves has been making a strong case for an extension in his time with KC and now with the Giants. As a free agent after this season, the now much trimmer Melky is primed to receive a pretty solid contract. If the Giants don’t make him a satisfying option he will be joining a fair number of pretty serious names on the free agent market. Nick Swisher, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, and (potentially) Ryan Ludwick will all be clamoring for contracts themselves but the Melk-Man’s surge to legitimacy will have interest in the (soon to be) 28 year old outfielder should be pretty serious, especially given his ability to play all 3 outfield positions with aplomb.

Cabrera has primarily played left field this season, but his arm is certainly strong enough that he can play right or center without any issues. Depending on the metrics you use his defense is anywhere from cripplingly inadequate to excellent, sometimes at the same position. Anecdotally from what I’ve seen, outside of his first brief stint with the Yankees where he looked overwhelmed all around, his defense has been excellent any time I’ve seen him in the field, I’m sure that is somewhat colored by seeing his rocket throws from the outfield to some degree.

That much said, Melky isn’t without his faults, his BABIP has been off the charts since joining KC. Sitting with a .388 BABIP is unreal, the results have been undeniable however, he’s getting on base almost 40% of the time, and when he puts the ball in play, it’s finding holes. Playing on the west coast, Melky’s not showing a ton of power, but he still has an outside chance at 20 homers this year and his speed has been passable, if not impressive. Overall Cabrera has managed to put together an impressive 2 year stretch which has fueled his unbelievable turnaround from being a fringe starter/4th outfielder to being one of the better all around outfielders in the game.

Looking at comparable players including Nick Swisher, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, and Andre Ethier, none of whom is really a great match up for the Melk-Man overall, but all of whom can be called very good to great outfielders.Ethier or Holliday’s contract certainly won’t be good matches for Melky, while Ethier has similar power numbers and a worse batting average than Melky, his contract is based partly on his 30 homer season at 27, his defense, and his consistency. Over the past 2 years Melky has been arguably the better of the two but he hasn’t been as consistent. Cruz is a much stronger power hitter, but couldn’t match Melky’s on base skills and hasn’t been a comparable power threat since 2010, he’s also 31 years old. Upton is much younger, has already shown sustained success and potential for greater power and comparable, probably superior speed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-4 year deal worth around 10-12 million per year for Melky weighing his relatively short period of true success and the startlingly strong year he’s having.

I hate it when this happens

We’ve discussed BABIP a lot on this blog.  Mostly, I’ve used it for pitchers.  Well, it does apply to hitters too.  Let’s take a look at the Cards shortstop Rafael Furcal.  First off, the Cardinals have been struggling mightily since Mid-May due to, in no small part, a lot of injuries they weren’t expecting to deal with, and the fill in guys just aren’t that good.  This is causing the need for some players, like Furcal and David Freese, for playing more games without a rest which with spotty injury histories is going to drag them down a bit.  With that said, back to Raffy.

Through April of 2012, Furcal had a BABIP of 364 (slash line of 315/384/427).  In May, he had a BABIP drop down to 358, but his numbers stayed high because he started hitting for more power (349/397/486).  Now, in 12 games this month he has a BABIP of 136, with a line of 140/170/200.  Career wise, he has a BABIP of 313 and now for the year he has a BABIP of 315.  At some point he was bound for a stretch like this to make things even out.  He’s gotten on base once in his last 5 games.  It’s a big reason for the Cards struggles.  Raffy hasn’t had much in his tank this month.  He could probably use a day off or two soon.

That’s all for now.  More snarkiness to come soon.  Or more analysis.  Haven’t decided what’s more fun to post on here.

Aura, Pinstripes and Pettitte

Andy Pettitte.  “Mr. Game 2” (isn’t that a dumb name?).  A man that has “the aura”.  It’s so powerful that “ Perceived or not, his teammates believe in it, like they once believed in the likes of Clemens and Cone.”  First off, if you don’t believe you have a damn good shot at winning when Clemens was on the mound for most of his career, you’re an idiot.  Second, there’s nothing to this “aura” crap.  Why is it that every guy that puts on those pinstripes and does well has an “aura”?  Did Pettitte not have said aura in Houston, where he pitched pretty well?  Third, he’s having a decent year and helping stabilize a shaky New York rotation that really has just CC Sabathia and average at best junk after.  But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

For the year, Andy has a K-rate of 8.1, BB-rate of 1.8, a WHIP of 1.009 and all are better than his career numbers by a decent margin (6.6 and 2.8 and 1.353 respectively).  It’s possible that at age (almost) 40 he’s learned to be a better pitcher.  But, like every other pitcher that seems to be doing well for a short amount of time or poorly for a short amount of time and sports writers need to acknowledge it, his BABIP is unbelievably low.  Career he has a BABIP of 312.  This year?  Try 253.  That’s a very very large gap.  And, that will probably come up quite a bit which will make that shiny WHIP go back to his usual and he’ll be the regular ol’ 117 ERA+ Andy Pettite that we all know and have some affection for.  And if he doesn’t, it’ll be the luckiest thing this year.  More so than Baltimore being in the lead of the AL East in June.  And that’s just weird!

Los Angeles Dodgers: Overrated Rotation?

The LA Dodgers have maintained a stranglehold on their division, though that has diminished some over the past week. The team is most certainly built to compete despite their recent sale. The Dodgers are certainly a club with the major league talent and a strong enough farm to compete. They have been dealing with their share of injuries lately, though their strong rotation has been a constant all season.

Nathan Eovaldi gas made two spot starts for the Dodgers and has looked pretty solid in both outings. He hasn’t been so spectacular as to declare him the next Matt Cain or anything, but he’s gotten good results which is more than you see out of most spot starters. He’s bounced back and forth between LA and their AA affiliate for the past 2 seasons, and while he walks too many batters by a fairly large margin, he is proving to be reasonably capable in short stints with the big club. He’s probably not a huge part of the Dodgers rotation plans, but he’s certainly not the worst option out there. He’s showing a lot of potential overall, but it’s all small sample size stuff. I don’t know that he’d hold up particularly well with more tape on him at the major league level, but he’s certainly been a help to the Dodgers so far.

Ted Lilly has twice hit the DL this season, and that’s not encouraging this early on. At 36 he has been having a very productive season, but the two starts he’s missed so far are only the tip of the iceberg there. He’s been relatively ineffective over his last 3 starts, while some of that ineffectiveness has been masked by errors making 5 of the 17 runs he’s given up over his last 16 & ⅔ innings unearned. That said, Lilly has gone 6+ in every start but his most recent when he walked away with discomfort in his pitching shoulder. I don’t know that anyone expected Ted Lilly to be a top flight starter, largely because he’s not. He’s a fine pitcher, more mid to back of the rotation talent but he does what’s asked of him and every now and again he might surprise you with a great year, but overall he’s going to eat innings, keep his team in games, and that’s more or less that. He’s been better since coming to the NL about walking batters, and his strikeout numbers have been more or less constant throughout his career. This year, those numbers are much less good than one would hope, but he’s also allowing almost 2 hits less per 9 than his career average. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and this season in between his two DL stints he wasn’t quite that guy, getting more ground balls than usual by a lot, and limiting line drives to 14% of all balls in play. If his peripheral stats stay where they are, batters will adjust, and start teeing off on him, if he can get his strikeout and walk issues under control, he will probably be fine.

Chad Billingsley is striking batters out at a health rate (60 strikeouts over 61 & ⅔ innings) and walking batters at a reasonable, if higher than I’d like rate (25 free passes so far). Nothing Billingsley is doing is really out of the norm for him though none of it’s impressive in the NL West either. He’s pitching to a 4.09 ERA and a 91 ERA+, which is better than last year’s line, but only marginally. He’s getting ground balls at exactly the same rate as last year, but giving up line drives and homers a bit more frequently. This isn’t exactly an impressive year for Billingsley so far. He’s pitched well enough, 5 quality starts so far, and only one real implosion. I understand that if one were to only ever meet the requirements for a quality start (6 innings pitched, 3 runs) they would have a 4.50 ERA, but his biggest problem hasn’t so much been giving up runs hand over fist, but that he’s had 3 outings of 4 innings or less so far, and has given up 3+ earned runs in 5 starts. He’s not pitching impressively so far, and while he’s pitched quite well before, he looks to have settled in as a relatively solid back of the rotation starter and nothing more.

Aaron Harang is looking pretty average, better than his career numbers would indicate, but not overwhelming either. He’s doing well with his strikeout numbers, and doing alright with his walk rate having 56 strikeouts and 24 walks over his 64 & ⅔ innings. He’s pretty much pitching to his career numbers, a pretty solid flyball pitcher, and too many line drives. Harang isn’t going to suddenly start blowing people away, he’s more of an unrealized talent than he is  anything else. He had two very good years in Cincinnati but has otherwise been below average his entire career. While he strikes out batters well enough, and exhibited a good ability to limit walks in the mid 2000s, he has since started giving up more walks, and just appears to be incapable of really fooling batters. Harang isn’t going to start blowing batters away any time soon, but he’s able to keep the back of the rotation from sinking into complete disarray.

Chris Capuano has apparently decided he’s a different pitcher now, after a series of underwhelming years in Milwaukee and a season of generally underwhelming results for the Mets he has up and started destroying the competition so far. over 68 & ⅓ innings Capuano has struck out 61 batters, walked 25, and is giving up 3 fewer hits per 9 than he has at any other point in his career. Capuano isn’t preventing line drives any better than he has in the past, and he’s giving up more fly balls but his BABIP is sitting about 60 points lower than his career mark at .243. I call shenanigans. I fully believe that Capuano isn’t this pitcher that he’s suddenly become at 33 years old, and that he’s due to regress, and when those line drives and extra fly balls start to fall in, he’s going to be in trouble. Maybe the Dodgers saw something in him that I can’t see, because they did sign him for 2 years with an option for 2014, but I’d look at this as an unsustainable line, the 5 & ⅓ inning, 7 run (4 earned) performance he put up to open the month is likely more of the guy we’re going to see than the guy who went 7 in Houston and only gave up 2 hits 5 days prior.

Clayton Kershaw is perhaps the only starter on this staff who can be called legitimate. At 24 years old he has proved more than any given other member of this staff regardless of service time. He’s managed to work his control down to about 2 walks per 9 over the past 4 years, and it’s staying right there this season. He’s not striking batters out like he has in the past, but he’s still going deep into games so it’s hard to complain. He’s pitched 81 & ⅓ innings so far and has gone 7 or more innings in 8 of his starts so far. It’s not as though the Dodgers are stretching him either, he’s thrown a season high 117 pitches twice and only thrown over 110 pitches on 3 occasions. Kershaw is inducing a bit more contact than usual, but he’s getting roughly 50% ground balls as well, he’s also only allowing 15% line drives. He is giving up homers a bit more frequently than ever before, but that’s bound to happen when you start pitching to contact, and he’s still not giving up that many homers (7). Kershaw is clearly the anchor for this staff, and is easily capable of stopping a skid on any given day. If there was one member of this starting rotation I’d put money on at any point it’s Kershaw.

The Dodgers are still holding onto a 3 game lead in the NL West, and while they have the 4th best team ERA in the NL, I doubt seriously Capuano’s ability to continue at this rate and that could be their undoing if he unravels sooner rather than later. The Dodgers have the 5th most runs scored in the National League as well, which give their pitcher friendly home park is great, they’re taking walks better than anyone else, and have the highest OBP in the league. The team is in a less than perfect position with the Giants nipping at their heels as injuries haven’t helped them. If they don’t make a move to upgrade their rotation by the deadline they might seriously be shooting themselves in the foot and end up taking a wildcard spot to see any post season play.

San Francisco Giants: How Far Can the Rotation Take Them?

The San Francisco Giants have managed to stay afloat so far, and with the tight battle in the NL East, could eek out a playoff spot despite the Dodgers command on their division. The Giants have their question marks like any other team, but how much of that really comes into play in the starting rotation?

Ryan Vogelsong returned to the show last season after 5 years between Japan and the Minor Leagues. When Vogelsong left the states he had put together several years of generally ineffective pitching and after bouncing through 3 organizations before returning to the Giants in 2010 and joining their AAA team. He had clearly learned more in those few years than could be put into words. He re-emerged last season as a 33 year old ace caliber pitcher. He has so far this year managed to continue his dominance. He has so far pitched no less than 6 innings in any given outing, and has only given up 3 or more runs on 3 occasions this season. He does walk an abnormally large number of batters, 26 so far over his 61 innings but while he’s walking about 10% of batters faced, he is striking out around 18% as well, and has limited opposing hitters ability to put good wood on the ball, so far only 16% of balls in play have been line drives. Vogelsong has been effective so far, and more importantly very consistent on top of it. It looks like Vogelsong’s hot year last year was no fluke. Though I’d like to see him limit walks a bit more, there’s no arguing with his results, I don’t know that he’ll keep up this pace but he certainly has the ability to really help keep the Giants in the playoff race.

Madison Bumgarner didn’t start the year with his best performance, but has since that disappointing 4 inning outing, he has gone 6+ in each start having compiled 6 quality starts in 10 opportunities so far this season. So far in 66 innings he has sent 47 batters back to the dugout without contact, and has given up only 14 free passes. While the strikeout rate isn’t overwhelming, giving up less than 2 walks per 9 is very encouraging. Bumgarner seems to be relying on ground balls a bit more this season than he has over the past 2 seasons, racking them up a bit more than half of the time while keeping opposing batters to an extremely anemic 12% line drives. I wouldn’t look for the line drive rate to continue, but even if it comes up a bit it shouldn’t absolutely destroy the young pitcher. He has given up 7 home runs so far, which isn’t overwhelming, and is more in line with reality than the .5 per 9 he gave up last season. Bumgarner looks pretty good all things considered, but I’d be very surprised if he was able to force opposing hitters into making bad contact like this all year, in all likelihood he’ll stay effective, but will probably start giving up a few more hits as batters start adjusting and making better contact.

Matt Cain is putting up some excellent numbers this season, and is so far building upon his dominance from last year. He’s walking less than 2 batters per 9, has struck out 66 batters already, and has thrown 71 innings over his first 10 starts. He made quite the statement going back to back with 9 inning shutout performances (though the 2nd was not a complete game). Cain has been a beast so far, compiling 8 quality starts in 10 attempts and generally improving in almost every way from last season. The biggest concern one could have with Cain is that he’s regressed in his groundball/flyball splits. He’s giving up an overwhelming amount of fly balls, though he has shown that he can be incredibly effective when pitching like that. The NL west is known for allowing flyball pitchers to appear incredibly effective while being much less well suited to playing in a more hitter friendly stadium/division. Cain is making every effort to make good on his extension though, and looks like he’s going to be well worth what they’re paying him out in San Fran this year, even if he’d look less impressive on the east coast.

Tim Lincecum is looking like he’s taken an overall nosedive in effectiveness. Lincecum has been able to eat innings, but with mixed results and nothing approaching his dominance over the past 4 seasons. His walk rate is through the roof at 34 free passes in 60 & ⅓ innings. Lincecum’s BABIP is up to an ugly .333 likely in large part to his 22% line drive rate and his decreased effectiveness in getting ground balls. He’s never been a ground ball pitcher per se but he is typically more effective in keeping the ball on the ground than he has been this year, and for a pitcher who has averages 26+% strikeouts he can certainly give up a few fly balls without hurting his ERA. This season, everything seems to be betraying him however. He’s walking roughly ⅛ of the batters he faces and while he’s still striking out more than 1 per inning,  he’s getting fewer strikeouts than in the past. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him start to round into form as the year progresses but there’s not really any reason for hiccup in effectiveness. Perhaps he’s battling minor injury, perhaps he’s seeing a small mechanical issue, maybe he’s tipping pitches, but what is for sure is that he’s not quite right, and his walk rate has shown that more than anything else.

Barry Zito has continued to be the worst investment that the Giants have made in the last several years finally started providing a return on the Giants investment. Zito has had his rough starts this year, but so far he’s only really left the team hanging twice. He came out in his first start and put together a complete game shutout and followed that up with 3 more solid performances. Zito is still walking a lot of batters, so far 26 in his 58 innings pitched, and he’s most certainly a contact pitcher having only struck out 34 so far. He’s doing a good job of keeping hitters off balance and avoiding line drives (15%) but otherwise looks relatively pedestrian. I don’t know exactly what the Giants can expect out of Zito for the season, but at the moment he’s contributing, and that’s all anyone can really expect from him after 5 years of consistent disappointment. Zito might not actually be any better than he’s been over the past few years, but the extended stint on the DL last year might have been exactly what he needed to finally get himself right.

Overall it looks like the rotation is a strength in San Fran again this season, despite Lincecum’s troubles, the rest of the rotation really has stepped up to make for a very strong rotation. The Giants have the 4th best team ERA in the NL so far, and if Lincecum can right the ship, their rotation will be as formidable as any in the MLB. Their offense has been something of an interesting study, they have the 5th best batting average, but the 8th OBP and 10th most runs. Despite being quite proficient in making contact as a team, they’re not walking, and not hitting for power. I see them as a legitimate contender to snag a wildcard spot given the close race in the NL East preventing any given team from running away with that division. Their lineup could do with an upgrade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a move or two near the deadline to really help make a strong push, especially if they can see weakness out of the Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Not a Single Pitcher Adhering to Expectations

The Arizona Diamondbacks, much like the Rockies and Padres, are for all intents and purposes already out of the playoff hunt. That has to be disappointing for a team who had taken the division last season behind some pretty solid pitching and a surprisingly effective offense. This season the division around them looks to have stepped up their game, and the D-Backs haven’t been able to keep pace. The biggest culprit has been some significant regression from their very young starting rotation.

Josh Collmenter has lost his rotation spot after 4 relatively ineffective starts, but having been moved to the bullpen as a long reliever it’s an ever present reality that Collmenter may be asked to spot start in the event of injury from time to time. He has been effective as a reliever, which has likely saved him from demotion, but after 24 starts last year, the demotion to the bullpen was probably not what Collmenter was hoping for.  Collmenter has been fairly effective in relief and by all means appears to be capable of holding onto that job and contributing for the D-Backs consistently.

Daniel Hudson has regressed mightily after a strong showing last season with the D-Backs. Hudson did just return from the DL and though his first outing was a shorter one, it was a step in the right direction giving up only 2 runs over 5 innings. In his 23 innings so far he has walked 9 batters which isn’t atrocious, but his 15 strikeouts aren’t exactly impressive either. He’s getting about 50% ground balls so far, and a rather pedestrian 18% line drive rate so he’s not doing especially poorly anywhere but the 5 home runs he’s given up sting a little. Hudson could return to be more effective than he was in the early going, and if his last 3 seasons (two of them partial) are any indication, Hudson is much more effective than he has been early on and could prove to be much more valuable going forward than he has been in the early going.

Patrick Corbin looks to have been filling in for Hudson during his DL stint, and over that course showed a few relatively effective starts highlighted by a 7 inning 1 run performance against San Francisco. Corbin was of course also shelled in one of his outings and was generally ineffective in another. At 22 years old the promise of his good starts should outweigh the frustration with his less effective outings. His 21% line drive rate is less than impressive, but his 18 strikeouts over 27 & ⅓ innings and his 9 walks to go with them are pretty palatable for a young starter. Corbin may be done in the majors for the time being, but he has gotten a taste of the major leagues, and could be all the better for it. He has shown an ability to learn from his mistakes in the minors and could come back in or before September with some impressive changes made to his approach.

Wade Miley joined the rotation in place of Collmenter and has been lights out all season. His 2.41 ERA is as sparkling a stat as you will see from a 25 year old in his first full season in the majors. He’s put together 52 & ⅓ innings between relief and starting so far, and has been pretty solid across the board. While he’s not striking out a ton of batters (32 so far) he’s not walking the park either (18 walks on the season) and has been effective in not only avoiding damage, but in eating innings, having only missed completing 6 innings once since joining the rotation. He’s pitching to contact effectively enough, and avoiding line drives better than most at 16% of balls in play. He’s also near 50% ground balls so far. He’s very young, but has demonstrated a pretty solid understanding of how to pitch in the majors so far and could be one of the biggest surprises for the D-Backs so far. I don’t know that the league won’t make adjustments and we could see him come back down to earth from his 170 ERA+ but he’s certainly showing reason to believe he can help the team.

Trevor Cahill has compiled 61 & ⅓ innings of work so far, and has been consistent, if somewhat unimpressive so far. He’s pitching to a 3.96 ERA, but has given up 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, two of which were against the San Francisco Giants. Cahill is providing value, if nothing else, and the biggest complaint against the young starter would probably be his 26 walks so far. Not exactly killing himself with walks, but certainly not helping his cause at near 4 per 9. Cahill is an extreme groundball pitcher and if he can get his walk rate down below the 10% mark, he could prove to be a very valuable starting pitcher, capable of going deep in games and with an adequate defense behind him look like quite the star. Currently he’s providing pretty solid value, but could really shine with a bit more polish.

Joe Saunders is proving us all wrong, after an impressive effort at age 30, the general consensus was that he just wasn’t that good, and would likely regress this season. That said he hasn’t. He’s walking fewer, striking out more, and providing effective innings for his team. His 113 ERA+ is a perfect example of such. His career ERA+ is 103, and he’s overall found a way to be better at everything this year, except maybe giving up hits, which he’s doing at about the same rate as always, and slightly worse than last year. He’s limiting opposing batters to 14% line drives, and has otherwise been himself as far as contact rate goes. With that rather low, and likely unsustainable line drive rate in mind, Saunders might be due for a bit of regression, but with his improved control, he might be able to sustain a number that’s not much higher, closer to his career 18% and still be quite effective. I don’t mean to say that Saunders is an actual ace, but for this staff he might be the next best thing.

Ian Kennedy hasn’t quite been able to turn himself back into that rock solid starter and Cy Young contender he was last year, he’s managed some pretty solid starts, and has been eating innings even in his tougher games so far. He is giving up more homers than one might like to see (9) but he’s still working his strikeout and walk numbers very close to last season’s rates, which is promising. IPK is pretty much looking just like the guy who was in the Cy Young race last year, except the results aren’t turning in. He’s not getting any more grounders than last season, actually at his lowest rate since his ‘07 debut with the Yankees, but still very close to the results from the past two seasons. He is keeping hitters off balance enough that they’re only putting up 17% line drives, which is better than he has produced over the past two years, but his BABIP (.317) is about 40 points higher than last year, which could be a product of a bit of bad luck and might come down some as the year progresses. IPK wasn’t exactly a media darling in New York, but he did develop a pretty thick skin, and is probably better for it. He’s likely to get through this and post a respectable season, despite the team’s already effectively dashed hopes for the post season.

I can’t honestly see the D-Backs making a real strong push for the postseason without the rotation putting it together in a hurry. Between the relatively weak starting rotation they’ve put forth all year, they’ve gotten terrible performance overall from Putz despite his 11 saves so far. Their pitching staff is 11th in the NL in ERA and could do to find a way to fix that in a hurry. Their offense is the definition of mediocre, 8th in homers, batting average, slugging percentage, and runs. They’re getting solid production from just about anyone they put out in the field, even if nobody’s been able to carry the team offensively for any stretch of time. If the Dodgers were having a worse year, Arizona would still be in the hunt despite their sub .500 record. That said, they’re 10 games out already, and while their rotation is better now than it has been at any other point this season, it’s not great, and with a middling offense, they’d need to really start blanking opponents for a while to crawl back into any playoff conversation at this point.

Colorado Rockies: How NOT to Build a Rotation

The Colorado Rockies have a significant history of insignificance. While they have made 3 postseason appearances in their short existence, they haven’t been able to capitalize on their occasional success, and in short order fell back off to being a sub .500 club last year. For a long time Coors field was considered nothing, if not a hitters park, and while that may be true despite their use of a humidor to try to deaden the flight of the ball in the thin/dry Rocky Mountain air, there’s no excuse for the quality (or lack thereof) of the Rockies’ staff.

Guillermo Moscoso pitched admirably for Oakland last year, and when given an opportunity to spot start in Colorado was promptly shelled in back to back starts. Moscoso gave up 12 runs in 9 & ⅓ innings. It feels safe to say that while he didn’t help any, he’s not really the problem here, and probably won’t be making any more starts for the Rockies in the immediate future.

Christian Friedrich started strong, with back to back quality starts but has since looked an awful lot more fallible, giving up 8 and 3 runs over 10 total innings. It’s indicative of exactly what the expectations are in Colorado that his most recent 5 inning 3 run start has been cited as a good performance. Now granted it is a serviceable start, he did strike out 6 and he only walked 1 batter but that’s not what you’re looking for out of your starters. 5 innings, no matter how dominant are not a goal most starters should have. That said, Friedrich has managed to strike out over 25% of batters faced, and could provide some value for the Rox. He is however an extreme flyball pitcher around 75% of balls in play going to the sky, and 31% of balls in play are line drives so far. Those are unsustainable numbers for any semblance of extended success. That said, he’s only faced 101 batters so far, so this is a case  where the sample size, could be indicative of nothing more than the amount of data, not the value of the results.

Drew Pomeranz has not made himself out to be a terrifically effective starter so far. Pomeranz has been out since May 7th with a bruised quad, but in the 5 starts he managed for the Rox, he only made it into the 6th inning once, in his 6 & ⅔ inning effort against the Dodgers. In the early going, Pomeranz showed a propensity for the walk, this season allowing 15 free passes to his 20 strikeouts in only 23 innings. I don’t know exactly what to say about Pomeranz’s performance, it seems to be pretty clear, he managed 1 valuable start for his team in 5 attempts, and only because of how few innings he had pitched, he was able to bring his ERA under 5 with that performance, and while his two starts preceding that outing had been positive enough, only 3 total runs over 9 innings, he did walk 6 batters over those 9 innings and 4 more over that one quality start. He’s not exactly impressing in his rehab starts at the moment either, but he is perhaps rediscovering a delivery that is less erratic. I don’t see Pomeranz making a serious impact for the Rox this season but at 23 there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a more effective starter. With that said, the team may decide to suffer through some more of his brand of pitching if he can keep from walking the bases loaded in AAA.

Jhoulys Chacin looks to have fallen off from his excellent season last year in a big way. Early this month the Rox put him on the 15 day DL with shoulder inflammation, which turned out to be a torn pectoral muscle. Chacin walks too many batters when he’s on, so when that got worse, that might have been cause for concern, but perhaps this issue has been bothering him longer than we knew. Weakness in his pitching arm would certainly be cause for concern if it impacts his ability to spot his pitches. He’s been up and down in his ground ball rates but he’s at an all time low this year, and his line drive rate (24%) is 9% higher than last year. All of this is cause for concern. I’d expect some type of rebound as the season wears on, but Chacin needs to make sure he’s got good strength in that arm before making any starts in the minors.

Alex White is not exactly pitching himself into the good graces of management either, though as I’ve highlighted so far, they might not really be any pickier than having warm bodies on the field at the moment. White has 2 quality starts so far, and has looked to be one of the better overall options for the Rox this season despite his unsightly 6.28 ERA. He’s not walking a ton of batters so far, and has 18 strikeouts over his first 28 & ⅔ innings. Not exactly overpowering but potentially more effective than some of his rotation mates. He is sitting with an ugly .337 BABIP despite his ground ball pitching so far. He is giving up 21% of balls in play as line drives, which is higher than may be desirable, but he is getting batters to swing on top of pitches, and that can eventually breed success. He’s not preventing home runs in any intense fashion, but 4 over his first 5 starts isn’t terrible, just not good. Overall, White could work out to be better than he has shown so far in Colorado, but at the moment he’s just a warm body on the mound. Overall, White is another young pitcher on this staff at only 23 years old pitching in one of the worst pitchers parks in baseball. He’s not excelling on the road either, but confidence and experience could go a long way toward helping resolve those issues.

Juan Nicasio is looking a bit shaky as well, though he does have the best ERA of the regular starters for the team, which isn’t saying a lot at 5.11 but he has hovered around a much more acceptable 4.50 between bad starts. He has managed to put together some very good starts, and has gone 6 innings or more in 6 of his 10 starts so far, so if there’s one thing Nicasio is doing better than anyone else for the Rox, he’s battling to save the bullpen, even when he’s not at his best. He has walked 21 batters over the 56 & ⅓ innings he’s given his club so far, but he’s also struck out 53, so while his walk rate isn’t exactly palatable, he is doing pretty well to get timely strikeouts despite it. He is allowing an unsettling amount of fly balls and 26% of balls in play have been liners, which doesn’t sound pretty, and it isn’t. He’s given up 7 homers so far, which isn’t terrible, though when you’re giving up fly balls like he is, more are bound to leave the yard than one would like. Overall Nicasio has shown great promise, despite not getting excellent results, and that might continue to be the case throughout the year.

Jeremy Guthrie is a curveball pitcher, he throws it about 12% of the time. They don’t break well in Colorado and that has been evident in Guthrie’s results. Guthrie was the staff ace for a bad staff for 5 years in Baltimore, and looks to be showing exactly what he’s made of so far for the Rox. Guthrie’s curve heavy arsenal is killing him at home, so far in all 3 starts at home he’s given up 6 earned runs in each start, and given up 5 homers. When a curveball doesn’t break, it’s a BP fastball, and that’s not good news in a live game situation. Guthrie has pitched pretty well on the road, his last road start being anything but pretty, though some of that could be attributed to the error(s) that lead to 4 unearned runs scoring. He’s not been able to get the strikeout numbers he’s used to, and he’s giving up walks in near 10% of plate appearances, which is a terrible combination. He’s also seeing 24% of balls in play go for line drives, up from a career mark of 18%. He’s given up 9 home runs in his 40 & ⅔ innings so far, which works out to about 2 per 9 innings pitched. Guthrie needs to rely more on his slider and change at home to get through that thin air, and while he might be working it out, he couldn’t do so fast enough for the Rox.

Jamie Moyer may be the oldest player in major league baseball, he has literally been pitching longer than I’ve been alive, and this season, at 49 years old he seems to be up and down. He has pitched a total 53 & ⅔ innings for the Rox so far, and could well turn his most recent troubles around in his next start. He does, above all else, know how to pitch. Moyer looks to be as much a victim of bad luck as anything else so far. His .350 BABIP is unsightly to say the least, to realize that it’s over 60 points higher than his career mark is perhaps more unsettling. I don’t believe it’s anything but hasty to say that Moyer is done. He’s a smoke and mirrors finesse pitcher, but he’s been that guy for years and has shown the ability to provide legitimate value for the Rox. It is somewhat worrisome that he’s walking more than he has since his world series championship with the Phillies, but his strikeout rate is right around the mark he produced that season as well. He is giving up a few too many homers for my liking (11 in 10 starts), but his line drive rate (19%) is right about his career average. Moyer might well be the best pitcher on this staff regardless of age or arsenal. He’s looking to be the only starter who’s actually getting robbed by his own team. there’s no excuse for a .350 BABIP, and that will come down, and once it does, his WHIP should follow.

The Rockies aren’t exactly known for having a dominant pitching staff, they have to combat an oversized outfield, an outright inability to use some breaking pitches at home, and until recently were saddled with the most homer happy park in the majors. What’s perhaps most frustrating for the Rockies is that they have the 3rd most productive lineup in the National league, but are 10 games under .500. That’s going to happen when you have the second worst team ERA in the league. The honor of “most embarrassing pitching staff in baseball” belongs to the Minnesota Twins, but with the Rox problems keeping starters healthy, that much could change at any time. While the team website has been declaring this the “year of the fan”, it has to tough to root for a team that could squander a 10 run lead in any given inning.

San Diego Padres: Could It Get Any Worse?

The San Diego Padres have not set themselves up for success so far this season, and it’s not something that’s exactly shocking to anyone. The Padres didn’t exactly go out of their way to become a better team this past offseason, and have made it a habit to trade away top talent for prospects and/or youth and cost certainty. While they’ve been able to compete on and off, it’s certainly an “off” year so far, and they look to be spending the season at the bottom of the division for the 2nd consecutive time under Buddy Black. Looking at their rotation it becomes quite obvious why they’re not competing this year, and look I shall!

Jeff Suppan has actually given up more runs in each consecutive start than he had in the previous start all May. Suppan’s struck out a grand total of 7 batters to his 13 walks over 30 & ⅔ innings. So there are a few things that can be said immediately, Suppan isn’t eating innings, and after his 3rd start has also stopped helping his team compete. The biggest question is why. He’s giving up walks, sure, but he’s also getting ground balls like never before, so far over 50% for the first time in his career. 80% of plate appearances are ending with the ball in play, which is admittedly high, but with a consistent groundball rate, that shouldn’t totally kill him. He is also walking near 10% of batters so far, which means in 93% of situations (home runs aren’t counted in balls in play) he’s giving batters the opportunity to run the base paths. He’s not giving up line drives though at only 15% of balls in play. His BABIP doesn’t suggest this is luck though sitting at .273, which is below both the league and his career marks. Suppan is actually giving opposing batters so many chances to put the ball in play that he’s being beaten into submission purely by the volume of opportunities he’s giving opposing batters. If Suppan can’t figure out how to turn those walks into strikeouts, he’s not going to fare any better over the course of the year.

Joe Wieland has been underwhelming so far though his season looks uglier than it may really be. He’s only had 2 bad starts in his 5 turns, so in under 30 innings of work, the young man’s not exactly providing an excellent sample to work from. Wieland is on the DL at the moment, but should have already started his throwing routine to get himself back on track. He’s getting strikeouts fine, and he hasn’t been wild, so aside from concerns that he’s given up 5 homers so far, he looks capable of contributing upon his return. Wieland is preventing line drives well (14%), which could indicate positive things for the young pitcher. He’s certainly pitching home games in the right park to forgive a few mistakes here and there, and could well prove that he’s better than his rough starts indicate. He has however not touched the 7th inning so far, and could do to try to work a bit more efficiently as the season progresses.

Eric Stults has so far made 3 starts on the season, one for the White Sox who, for reasons unbeknownst to me waived him after providing a 6 inning 2 run effort and ⅔ of an inning of scoreless relief. The Padre’s managed quite the coup in snagging the 32 year old off waivers. His start today will be the 28th of his career, and while he’s not exactly a strikeout artist he has shown a knack for limiting damage so far, and is a bit better than 50% ground balls so far. He may be getting a bit lucky overall, as he seems prone to giving up a lot of line drives (24% this season) but he also hasn’t given up a homer so far. Stults may not be the answer to the Padres’ pitching woes, but right now he’s the hot hand, and that can be just as important at times. I wouldn’t look for Stults to continue his homerless streak for the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he managed to provide value for the Padres in one capacity or another for the season.

Cory Luebke got off to a hot enough start, and in the midst of building on his strong season last year, will be sitting out the rest of this season after reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow. Luebke won’t be contributing any more for the Friars this season, but I’d look for him to come back strong and prepared to pitch next season.

Anthony Bass has eaten 58 & ⅓ innings so far for the Friars, and aside from an ugly start against the Mets in his most recent turn, Bass looks to have the ability to provide quite a bit of quality for the Padres. Bass has been able to strike out batters pretty effectively so far, with 55 Ks so far to his 21 walks. He’s keeping batters on top of pitches about ½ of the time, and he’s not getting hammered for line drives (18%) when they do lift one. Bass certainly earned himself a spot in the rotation after last year’s 48 & ⅓ inning audition, and so far hasn’t disappointed. Bass seems to be pretty solid all around, not putting a ton of men on base, and pitching smartly and efficiently more often than not. He’s still just a kid at 24 so some faltering isn’t unrealistic, but so far he’s looking to contribute in a big way for the Friars this season

Clayton Richard is currently the only contributing piece of the Friar’s trade of Jake Peavy and has been able to eat 64 & ⅓ innings so far though he’s done so in relatively unspectacular fashion. He’s been able to provide quality games but he’s far from an ace for this staff. Richard’s biggest value is going to come from his ability to eat innings, whether he’s battling or not he seems to be able to chew up innings without much issue. He’s providing an overall sustainable line, not striking out a large number of batters, but he’s keeping hitters on top of the ball more than ½ of the time, and he’s limiting line drives to 17%. He might be a bit better than his 4.76 ERA indicates, but he’s likely to show up and be any more than back of the rotation innings.

Edinson Volquez has put together 65 innings of slightly better than average ball. He’s not the ace that he’s been advertised to be but he is eating innings well enough. He’s striking batters out at a fair clip with 55 strikeouts so far, though he’s striking out about 1 less per 9 than last year, and 2 less than the year prior. With that he’s walking batters at an unreasonable clip, having walked 34 already, though that’s nothing new with Volquez. The one thing Volquez is doing well above all else is limiting home runs, which he most certainly should be doing, having only given up 1 round tripper at home so far and 3 total. He is garnering ground balls, though less than he has over the 2 most previous seasons. Volquez is also limiting line drives to 13% which is less than he has ever managed in the past, but not too far off of his last 2 seasons. Overall Volquez probably isn’t going to impress anyone more than he already has, and if he can’t get his walk rate under control his annually diminishing strikeout rate isn’t going to make him look better. He’s serviceable, and probably just a bit lucky, given that he’s usually good for about a homer per 9 and has been providing value at half that rate in Petco.

The Friars are worse than middle of the pack across the board, 10th of the 16 NL teams for staff ERA and despite being 2nd in stolen bases, are 15th in team batting average, on base percentage, and runs scored. They aren’t looking like a competitive team, and so far haven’t been this season. I’d say they’ll be sellers come the deadline, but I’m at a loss for what they’ll be able to sell that won’t further cripple their team for next season. They lack a power threat in their everyday lineup, and while Carlos Quentin might help out when healthy, their rotation, pen, and lineup are all subpar and that will assure them of a disappointing season again this year to give them their 4th sub .500 season in the last 5 years.

St Louis Cardinals: Can Their Rotation Help Them Repeat?

The St Louis Cardinals are the reigning WS Champs, and look in some ways to be stronger this year than last. That’s something of a strange statement given that they lost Albert Pujols to the Angels via free agency. However with largely the same team returning and very strong contributions from new acquisition Carlos Beltran, and an increase in productivity for David Freese the Cards seem to be doing just fine offensively. So, about that rotation...

Lance Lynn has come out of the gate hot in only his 2nd year in the bigs with 6 quality starts in his first 9 attempts. Lynn has faltered a bit lately, with his last 3 starts being his weakest efforts, though two of them were quality starts none were more than 6 innings, and he gave up 3 or more runs in each of them. This could signal something of a return to earth for the 25 year old who has been almost too good to be true for the Cards so far. Lynn’s 34 & ⅔ innings from last year don’t make the greatest set of benchmarks, but he’s struck out 52 batters so far in 56 & ⅔ innings, which is good for over 8 per 9, which is only a little bit lower than his rate from last year, and he’s walked 19 batters so far, good for a about 3 per 9. Lynn is doing pretty well with his overall stat line, giving up very few homers, and getting just better than 50% ground balls with 17% of balls in play going for line drives. Unless his dominant start is as much a product of the league’s unfamiliarity with him, he’s clearly got the stuff, and the makeup to be a successful pitcher in the majors.

Jake Westbrook has looked... great in the early going, he has looked a bit more hittable through May, but has still been relatively reliable over his starts this month (last night’s 6 run dumpster fire excluded). He has managed to keep his walk rate quite reasonable having walked only 16 batters in 56 innings, while his strikeout rate is at a 10 year high at 6.1 per 9. He has above all else been able to avoid the long ball, having given up only 3 homers in his 9 starts. Having always been a groundball pitcher, and this year is no exception, he’s garnered over 60% ground balls and has limited line drives to only 13% of balls in play. This all bodes well for Westy, who despite a down year last year, and a track record of being less than exceptional, could certainly be looking to repeat something like his ‘08 performance. Westbrook is looking good in a lot of regards, and there’s very little reason for me to believe that he’s absolutely going to fall off. Of course as he’s not a strikeout pitcher he can get into trouble giving up a lot of contact, but conservatively it looks like Westbrook is going to turn in a solid if unspectacular year, probably a bit better than league average when all is said and done.

Adam Wainwright looked to be struggling to shake off the rust after a year on the shelf but has flashed a bit of brilliance periodically, including his complete game shutout of the Padres in his most recent start. His strikeout rate is good at 8.4 per 9 though his walk rate is up (marginally) at 2.9 per 9 and he’s giving up a little more than a homer per 9 which, is atypical of Waino to say the least. He’s getting ground balls more than ever before, but not by a huge margin, and his Line drive percentage (18% of all balls in play) is pretty much in line with his career line. Coming back from Tommy John surgery isn’t an easy road for most pitchers, so it’s to be expected that Waino has some rough starts while he re-adjusts to pitching in the majors. Overall he looks to be turning the corner with that shiny new elbow ligament, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a few hiccups here and there. Waino is better than his ERA indicates so far, but he’s not quite back up to All-star/Cy Young level yet.

Jaime Garcia is solid, if unspectacular, but has actually looked quite steady so far. He has amassed 6 quality starts in his 9 attempts, and has only given up more than 3 runs twice so far. Garcia has been an effective innings eater for St. Louis so far, and that’s not an unappealing quality for the back of your rotation. in 58 & ⅓ innings so far he has struck out 43 and walked 15, so while he’s not walking anybody, he isn’t striking them out either. He is the owner of a rather ugly 1.406 WHIP so far, and has managed to stay out of more trouble than most who are letting batters so readily take to the base paths by only giving up 1  homer so far. His BABIP is an absolutely disgusting .361, and while last year it was .324, a 40 point jump is quite a bit, especially given that he’s more effectively limiting line drives (only 16% of balls in play) than over the past 2 years. Garcia might be a victim of some less than stellar luck to this point, and could look to see his WHIP drop a bit as that BABIP corrects itself. Garcia may despite a diminished strikeout rate be able to provide better value to the Cards this season if he is able to keep his line drive and flyball rates at or near their current levels.

Kyle Lohse has looked like something of the staff ace so far, and while that’s not necessarily fair to throw on Lohse, who’s never been looked upon as deserving of such a role before, his productivity in the early going has certainly been a boon to the Cards. Unfortunately for Lohse and the cards he’s been having some trouble making it through the 6th inning this month, having only done so once, when he was stung for 5 runs against the Cubbies. Lohse has been able to limit damage effectively, and has the exact same WHIP now that he finished last season with (1.168) though that’s due this year to more hits and less walks than last season, he’s been very good about keeping the ball in the yard so far having given up only 4 homers over his first 9 starts. Lohse looks to be more lucky than good overall so far, he’s never been a groundball pitcher, and this year is no exception. He’s giving up 22% of balls in play for line drives, which is not far off of last season’s mark at all. I’d worry about Lohse’s ability to return to the kind of effective pitching he put together last month, and he may revert to the type of ERA that we expect out of him more than what he has provided so far.

Chris Carpenter has been sidelined with a shoulder injury all year and hasn’t made a single start for the Cards this season. The glass ace has been effective over the past 3 years, and was a huge boon to the Cards while Wainwright was out last season, but looks to be back to old habits. With any luck this is a flukey injury and Carp can return around the All-star break and provide a bit of a pick me up for the Cards who are already seeing pretty solid production from the rotation, but giving the team leverage to move someone for a need elsewhere in the team is never a bad thing.

Overall the Cards pitching staff is ranking in the middle of the pack for the NL, but it looks more or less like that can be attributed to a less than perfect bullpen, which looks at a cursory glance to be a target for improvement. Jason Motte is pitching effectively, as are Mitchell Boggs and  Marc Rzepczynski (I understand after having finally typed that why you folks refer to him as “Scrabbles”), however the rest of the ‘pen has not fared quite as well so far. That said, the team is sitting on a very solid rotation, and has the best offense in the National League so far with 59 total homers and 240 runs. They also rank first in batting average, OBP, and SLG. They have been taking their walks and stealing bases effectively as well (6th and 5th respectively), so regardless of what could be happening with Pujols, the team is scoring runs just fine. With their very effective rotation, and their dominant offense (despite rather significant losses), the Cards are in position to make a nice post season run.