The AL East conundrum.

           Overall, the AL East has been an incredibly difficult division to compete in over the last decade or two, and with the Jays having made huge splashes in acquiring roughly one third of the talent in the NL East, the Red Sox signing two more catchers, and the Yankees resigning some of the most important pieces from their post season run last year, while letting two other pieces walk away without so much as a finger raised by Cashman, one would be forced to assume that the division has changed some this year.

           The division has changed significantly; there is no baseball mind who would argue that the landscape in the AL East is changing for 2013. Not necessarily the standings though. Many analysts are still painting the Yanks as a 1st place team, despite losing Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, and letting Rafael Soriano walk away. I don’t know exactly how accurate that is, Martin is an excellent backstop, both for his framing abilities and the fact that he brings some power and on base percentage to the equation that many replacements wouldn’t offer. Francisco Cervelli will be a fine replacement, offering less power but similar defense as well as the ability to play third base if need be. Chris Stewart has a pretty light bat and while he’s cited as a defensive specialist, that is a tag given to him more due to his light hitting than his actual (and slightly dubious) defensive abilities. Austin Romine is the biggest wildcard of the three, having very little major league experience. He projects to have a weaker than average bat at the position, but provide solid defense. Swisher is perhaps the hardest of the three to replace in earnest. Ichiro Suzuki will replace him in right field, but Swisher provided a balanced approach between average defense, above average power, and high on base percentage, Ichiro’s game hinges on his potentially gold glove worthy fielding, his speed on the base paths, and his unbelievably high contact rate at the plate. Soriano, who stepped in to replace an injured Mariano Rivera was largely expendable however. That is not to say that someone of Soriano’s particular skill set is not valuable to the Yankees, but because of their otherwise very strong bullpen and the number of cheap middle innings relievers, moving everyone up one spot in the depth chart would not hinder the Yankees in a practical sense. With plenty of time to acquire a more powerful outfield bat to help rest the light hitting Brett Gardner and Suzuki and/or a game changing catcher the Yanks certainly remain a very dangerous team despite the turnover.

           The Red Sox have spent half of last year and the bulk of this offseason retooling the entire team, from trading Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers for several pieces and salary relief, to their recent trade for Joel Hanrahan the Red Sox have shown no particular sentiment toward their own players. This may well play to their benefit; the Sox have retooled well so far, having acquired yet another catcher, and potentially will finalize their deal with Mike Napoli soon. The Sox have a potentially very powerful rotation, despite last year’s utter failings. Jon Lester and Clay Bucholtz are both extremely good pitchers, whether they showed it last year or not. Combining their talents with the overall value of their lineup the Red Sox should be notably more competitive than they were one year ago.

           The Orioles have made almost no moves this year, and the kind of statistical anomaly that allowed them to reach the postseason last year doesn’t seem as likely without making any real push at another piece or two. Letting Mark Reynolds walk away isn’t immediately addition by subtraction. His strikeout rate was atrocious, but he does put the ball in the seats and that’s not a bad talent to have. He’s a hack 3rd baseman for sure, but he can handle first just fine, and there’s certainly value in a player like Reynolds. That said, the Orioles can still make moves this offseason, and may surprise me, but I’d call for them to regress given the improbability of their record last year. Having scored only 7 more runs than they allowed for the year while winning 93 games. That’s some serious statistical outlier material there. If the O’s don’t make some serious headway on that run differential, I could see them sliding back to being a .500 team this year.

           The Rays haven’t made any great strides forward either, though trading James Shields and Wade Davis isn’t exactly as devastating as some have made it seem. While Tampa did give up an exceptional starter they are also a pitching machine, and seem to churn out starters on an annual basis. The team could use a bit more pop, and losing BJ Upton isn’t going to help them there, but with such a strong starting rotation I find it hard to believe that they’ll fall out of contention early. The Rays may be looking at 3rd in the division again this year, but it should be awfully difficult to count them out.

           The Blue Jays are, well, better. They’ve traded for roughly half of last year’s Marlins team, RA Dickey, and signed Melky Cabrera all in about a month. Between Dickey and Buehrle their rotation has instantly become very solid while they have also added two (potentially) very strong multi tooled players in Jose Reyes and Cabrera. The questions surrounding Cabrera’s PED use give me some pause in saying that he will be a very effective addition, but even as a league average bat he will provide solid defense in any of the three outfield spots, though his range is probably best suited to a corner. Reyes, while a very capable shortstop, is an injury risk. That certainly won’t be made better by playing 82 games on the fake turf of the Rogers Center. The Jays have a chance to really take a step forward within the division, I won’t argue for even a moment that their rotation isn’t better now, but their other additions are questionable to me. I don’t think that they have the right pieces in place to be a real postseason run, but they should make the AL East a more interesting division for the next few years, especially if this is how Alex Anthopoulos plans to really move the team forward over the next few years.

           As per Bob Dylan, “The times; they are a changing.” I see the division shaking out to still see the Yankees in the playoffs, whether the division or a wildcard I don’t know. The Red Sox I feel will miss the post season again, while the Blue Jays make a push for a playoff berth. The Orioles are poised to regress significantly, while the Rays are a serious question mark to me, They’re worse right now than they were last season, but they have a track record of being surprisingly competitive regardless of the moves they make/miss. It’s certainly a different world when the Yankees are concerned with their spending and the Blue Jays have transformed their team by taking on large contracts.

Good Idea/Bad Idea: The Great Closer Debate

Yep, two in a day.  I'm on fire!  And if I were, I'd have to call a Fireman.  And in baseball, the term "Fireman" refers to a closer, or a shut down reliever.  Are there any on the ballot for this year?  You betcha! Let's take a look at the controversial idea of Lee Arthur Smith being in the Hall of Fame.

Most of the decision about Lee Arthur has centered around what most people consider to be how to judge relief pitchers.  Currently in the Hall of Fame, there are  5.  Hoyt Wilhelm, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage.  All of them probably deserve to be inducted.  The question people have is does Lee Arthur belong in that group?  A lot of it also comes down to how we plan to use the save stat.  As I've opined on here before, it is a terrible stat.  And Lee Smith led the world in saves until Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera came along and blew his number out of the water.  So how does the argument shake out for and against Lee Arthur?

Good Idea: The fact is that saves are a bad stat and it is very easy to accumulate them over the course of a long career.  But Lee Arthur was a great reliever.  He has a higher K/9 than any other reliever in Cooperstown and the best HR/9 as well.  It's tough to do a full comp on him with other relievers in the hall because there are only the five of them and the RP position has evolved greatly in recent times.  While saves may not be a great stat, he did gain almost 500 which was the most for a long time.  He was a great reliever that shut down offenses.

Bad Idea: He struck out a lot of batters, true, but he also had the fewest innings when compared to the HoF relievers except for Sutter, fewer strikeouts too.  He also walked a lot of guys and had a mediocre WHIP, almost 1.3.  In fact, he never had a season where his WHIP was below 1.1, which means that teams had a lot of opportunities to score against him.  It's a testament that he was able to even get all those saves with the baserunners he was allowing, but the fact remains that he was allowing them at a fairly high clip.  Good reliever, worthy to be part of a good team's pen, but not Hall of Fame worthy.

Verdict: It's hard to do a calculation for relievers because there aren't that many in the Hall of Fame.  But, for what it's worth, his score came to 126, which was 2nd best for a reliever to Eckersley.  I don't know what has kept him out, if it's just that stuff I was talking about at the top about closers and relievers and how effective they are, etc.  I would put him in, especially since it tells the story of how relievers have evolved over the years.  Think about it, the best reliever of the pre-closer era was Wilhelm, and then we had guys like Fingers and Sutter and Gossage give way to guys like Eck and Smith, which led to guys like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera to be great closers.  And it isn't like he is an indefensible choice, like some people currently in the Hall are.  He's a good choice and should be inducted.

Good Idea/Bad Idea:It Was a Big Rock

Welcome to a Christmas Edition of my Hall of Fame Good Idea/Bad Idea series.  The player I want to look at today is none other than a man named for a certain type of white powder.  No, his nickname wasn't snow, it was Rock.  That's right, we're looking at Rock Raines.

Before we get started, let me say that Raines was probably undervalued during his time because he wasn't very flashy.  I have a feeling like if he played today he would be looked at differently.  And I'm not just talking about the cocaine thing.

Good Idea: Rock stole a lot of bases, but did so at an extremely high rate.  He stole over 800 bases at an almost 85% rate, which is nearly unheard of.  He also got on base at a 385 clip and has the best rate for any player that has more than 15 years in the bigs.  He had a 126 wRC+ and a 361 wOBA, which are pretty good numbers, especially for a guy that didn't hit for a ton of power.  Certainly a better choice than Andre Dawson IMO.  His biggest comp, obviously, is going to be to Rickey Henderson.  Lets look at them really quick:

Raines- 85% success rate at steals, 126 wRC+, 361 wOBA, 385 OBP
Rickey- 81% success rate at steals, 132 wRC+, 372 wOBA, 401 OBP

Rickey had a little higher in most stats, but it was pretty close.  Rickey was more powerful, no doubt, but otherwise were fairly equal hitters.  If Rickey's in, Rock should be in.

Bad Idea: All of Rock Raines' stats seem to be...ok.  If he were to be elected, he would be in a class with left fielders.  He would be included in a class with Ted Williams, Ralph Kiner and Carl Yastrzemski.  He doesn't quite belong with those guys.  He might be better than Brock and a couple of others, but that doesn't mean he belongs.  He had a lot of PA, but still didn't get 3000 hits, or 1000 RBI.  I know he was a leadoff hitter, but you'd think he'd have more RBI just due to the fact he played over 20 years.  Want a better stat?  Fine.  After 20+ years, he was only worth about 70 WAR.  Which is around 3.5 a year.  It's good, but not that great.  Sorry, no dice.

Verdict: No.  He gets a -39 on my scale, absolutely the lowest for a LF.  Sorry Rock, you were an exciting player, but not an all time great.

AL Postseason Hopefuls and the Schedules That Could Break Them

The AL wild card race is getting pretty serious down the stretch now, and we’re seeing that while the playoff picture is being painted at this point, we’re looking to see the season come down to the last game or two again this season. With that said, it appears that the last 15 or so games will make a good bit of difference. Of teams that are fighting for playoff berths outside of the AL Central (I have both already covered it, and both teams have worse records than the bulk of the wild card hopefuls). 

The Athletics have looked great this season, pitching especially has carried the team. It appears in fact that they may have a second and possibly third MLB quality rotation sitting between AAA and AA. They do however have a very difficult schedule going forward. Of their last 15 games, they have 12 against teams with a winning record and only three against the Seattle Mariners. Contrasting that, the Angels have eight of their last 14 against winning teams and six games against those same Mariners. Those 3 additional games against a last place team could certainly make a notable difference for them trying to get into the postseason.

In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays are apt to have the hardest time getting into the postseason, not only because of their record at this point, but because they are going to finish the season with seven straight games against teams that are currently in position to make the postseason, four against the White Sox and three games against the Orioles to close out their season. The Orioles and the Yankees are currently tied for the division lead after the Yankees were rained out yesterday. Both teams have 3 games left against postseason contenders, and are otherwise facing teams fighting to avoid the basement in their divisions. They have a pretty equal schedule at this point, and it’s somewhat hard to give the edge to either team given the A’s and Tampa are both very strong teams, and it’s hard to point to one and declare them the “better” team given their respective schedules but I’d probably give a slight edge to the A’s, which would give the Yankees the marginally harder schedule.

There’s a lot going on over these last two weeks of the regular season. Given the difficulty of the A’s remaining schedule, the Angels may surprise us and overtake them for a postseason berth, the Orioles may be in the midst of making a worst to first switch, showing everyone yet again that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette are both still capable of turning a team around at a baseball moment’s notice. Without a real push, the Tigers will miss the postseason after making it to last year’s ALCS, and the AL Central will have a different division winner for the third year in a row.

Good Idea/Bad Idea Yankees Style

Who else remembers the Animaniacs? Well, it may be time to introduce a new type of article here. We’re going to play a game of “Good idea, Bad idea”. Today’s article will focus around the Yankees most recent roster moves.

Good Idea: Moved David Phelps to the rotation in the wake of CC Sabathia's injury. In all honesty Phelps has pitched well enough both as a starter and as a reliever to warrant a longer look in the rotation. It’s not the perfect scenario to take over for the big lefty, but if Phelps can put together a few solid starts everyone will be happy, and he might just get a chance to compete for a starting spot next spring. I can’t fault Cashman, or anyone else involved for making this call. The guys over at River Ave Blues have been calling for Phelps to get another shot in the rotation for a while now. His splits are pretty positive, he hasn’t been giving up an overwhelming number of line drives, he’s striking batters out frequently, and has managed to avoid the long ball reasonably well. The biggest gripe I could make about this one is that he hasn’t been stretched out for starting, and at least this first start could be a short one, I’m thinking 80 pitches, maybe 5 innings if he’s economical? I could be wrong, he’s only pitched once this week in a game, and twice in the last 14 days. Maybe the Yanks have been quietly stretching him out in anticipation of a move to the rotation.

Bad Idea: Signing Derek Lowe. I get the premise, he’s going to be the low man in the ‘pen, he will be there to take the 4 inning hit when a starter gets lit up, he’ll be there to slowly allow the opposing team back into a blowout, but most importantly, he’ll be there to protect actually valuable arms from taking the same punishment. That said, I don’t like it. I don’t like signing a pitcher because of his “pennant race experience” or his “postseason success”. His pedigree would hold up if it weren’t currently so covered in the mess of his recent failures. Yes he has had success earlier this season, yes he’s pitched out of the bullpen before, and yes he’s almost free. Knowing all of that, he still sucks, and I’m still leary of his ability to be productive. Everyone will throw it around like it’s reason to justify the signing, Lowe still gets ground balls with great frequency; but he also doesn’t strike anyone out. I’m not saying a pitcher needs to throw 100 mph or strike out more than 1 per inning to succeed, I still root for Chien-Ming Wang to return to form, I like seeing the defense involved in a lot of plays, and I like seeing pitchers go deep into games, but he’s walking batters at a higher than average (3.4/9) rate and striking out almost exactly 3 per 9. That is not now, nor has it ever been a recipe for success. I said he’d come back down to earth, and he came back down so hard that the Indians are willing to pay him to pitch somewhere else.

This is one of those moments where it’d be great if I were wrong, but I just don’t see it. I don’t see how I can be wrong about Lowe here. Maybe he throws a little harder out of the ‘pen, maybe Russell Martin can keep him from tipping pitches, but to count on either of those things would just be foolish.

Yankees Trade Needs, Wants, and Realities

It’s been a while, and we’ve discussed the trade market in general, and a few specific trade possibilities, but I’mma go ahead and look at the Yankees needs and wants. I have to stress my bias here, if these are less than perfectly logical trades, so be it, I have my allegiances, and I’m being upfront about them. It’s pretty common amongst Yankees fans to overvalue our farm system, so I’ll try to stray away from that, and it’s been said repeatedly that we as a fanbase feel entitled to winning, entitled to having the best of everything, no matter the cost.

I’m going to assume that what Brian Cashman says means more than placating the media, and that he doesn’t want to A) cripple the farm system or B) put the team in a position to be over the luxury tax threshold in 2014. So, knowing all that there are a few areas of “need” which is a term I’m forced to use loosely given that the team is in first place and owns the best record in baseball. In the short term, the yanks need a third baseman. No matter how much I like Eric Chavez, he’s a great backup, solid defense, productive bat, some power, but with all that comes the fragility that kept him from being a superstar. Behind him there’s Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, and Ramiro Pena within the organization, all offering something but not the ability to lessen the blow of a month+ without Alex Rodriguez. There’s room to upgrade at catcher as well, I like Russell Martin and I want him to start performing like he’s able to, but right now he’s calling a good game, but he’s essentially a guaranteed out against righties.There’s also room to upgrade the bullpen in light of Mariano Rivera’s injury and the general (Insert handedness) One Out GuY nature of the bulk of the ‘pen. 4 days ago I would have likely argued that adding an outfielder would have been beneficial as well, but after trading D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar for Ichiro Suzuki I think that’s reasonably well covered, though his bat may not be what it once was, he still has speed, and plays great defense, he’s more or less Brett Gardner with a modified howitzer for an arm (A Futurama reference, in a sports blog, does anyone else appreciate this?) at this point in his career.

the third base market is fairly thin, my knee jerk reaction was to say Ty Wigginton, he’s versatile, right handed, and has some power, but the Phillies have already shot that one down. Hanley Ramirez would have also been an option, but another prima donna in New York might be a bit much. Chase Headley is an option, in that he’s both good, and available, as well Aramis Ramirez is a possible fit. The yanks don’t need a long term third baseman, they are, for better or worse, A-rod is under contract for several more years, and making him a full time DH and part time fielder just doesn’t seem likely at the moment. so anyone like Headley or Ramirez would likely be acquired with trading them after the season in mind. Strategically, Headley could be a great fit, he’s young, affordable, has shown moderate power in the spacious Petco park, and plays solid defense. The biggest draw to getting, then flipping Headley would be the ability to potentially acquire a cost controllable pitcher for the 28 year old. Prying Headley away from the Padres would be a tricky proposition given the state of the Yankees farm system. Likely they would have to give up a number of prospects of some value, and at least one of the “can’t miss” prospects like Mason Williams, Manny Banuelos, or Dellin Betances would be part of that package.

As for catchers, the goal wouldn’t be to replace Martin, but to provide him a better platoon partner than Chris Stewart, though Francisco Cervelli can do that just fine. Catchers are tricky to trade mid-season, they have to build a rapport with the pitchers they work with, need to know not only what they like to throw, but how they’re comfortable operating. It’s a tall order to join a team in the midst of a pennant race, remain productive at the plate, and learn to effectively handle no less than 11 different pitchers. There are certainly good catchers on bad teams, though they all come with some caveats. while Joe Mauer would be a great catcher to acquire, he’s solid behind the plate, and he’s got a great bat for a catcher he did miss ½ of last year with an injury, and he is on a long term contract, so if his oversized (for a catcher) frame starts to break down, the yanks would be saddled with that. Knowing all of these things, there’s also no particular indication that Mauer is on the trading block, though the yanks could potentially deal some of their minor league pitching talent to entice the Twins who’ve got slightly less than no pitching at the major league level. Kansas City could potentially be enticed into giving up Salvador Perez, though overpaying for an unproven talent would be a near certainty, if the trade panned out, Perez would be a solid cost controlled addition. There is however no indication that he’s available, nor that at 6’3” he’ll be able to stay at catcher for his whole career. The Brew crew has two fairly productive, controllable catchers in Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonaldo, and could potentially be talked into letting one of them leave. John Jaso could also be available at the right price given that he’s expendable with both Miguel Olivo and Jesus Montero in the fray, though the Mariners may prefer to keep Jaso with an eye to Montero’s future as a catcher being questioned. It has been mentioned that Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies would be a good fit, and given that they’re selling off pieces and Ruiz has an expiring contract I tend to agree, though for less than 1 year of Ruiz who has been tearing the cover off the ball this year the yanks would likely pay a king’s ransom. There just might not really be room to upgrade at catcher aside from letting Cervelli get his hacks in rather than stewart. He’s not exactly going to dominate pitching in the major leagues, but he calls a good game, he can hit a little, and having him spell Martin for 2 out of every 5 might just help Martin get his head on straight and start producing at the plate.

The market for relief pitching is pretty grim, most of the teams that are out of contention have either very young bullpens or very bad bullpens, in the former case the team trying to get a reliever is likely to have to give up a minor leaguer with some serious potential, and in the latter case, why bother? With that said, I tend to like pitchers leaving Colorado, if you can pitch effectively there, you can pitch effectively anywhere. You’re pitching in one of the most offensively friendly stadiums in the sport, and many breaking pitches don’t break as well there as they do closer to sea level. I’d be interested in Matt Belisle or Josh Roenicke if either is available, and failing that Shawn Camp is a relatively appealing option in his own right. The question is now, what are they worth? Roenicke is probably the toughest to acquire, though the Rox also say they’re not interested in moving Belisle either. I’d suspect that to get anyone really worth having, the yankees would have to give up something valuable from the farm, I’d be somewhat inclined to wait this one out, I think that Joba Chamberlain’s eventual return, and the prospect of Mariano Rivera being ready to pitch again before the postseason (nevermind) will be enough of a shot in the arm for the ‘pen, especially if David Phelps can keep producing like he has been.

Overall, I think that while a third baseman might be a viable trade option, I don’t know that if I were in Brian Cashman’s shoes I’d be too thrilled with what’s available. The Catching market is not friendly, everyone that’s an upgrade over Martin/Stewart is going to be cost prohibitive. I only really see Shawn Camp as an option as far as relief pitchers go unless someone begins shopping their closer at a discount price ASAP. I don’t personally believe that Cashman is interested in overpaying for anything short of greatness, and while the Montero for Michael Pineda deal hasn’t panned out so far, I seriously doubt that Cashman is in the habit of trading big value for very little return, and with that in mind I don’t really see any big moves for the Yankees between now and the deadline.

Aura, Pinstripes and Pettitte

Andy Pettitte.  “Mr. Game 2” (isn’t that a dumb name?).  A man that has “the aura”.  It’s so powerful that “ Perceived or not, his teammates believe in it, like they once believed in the likes of Clemens and Cone.”  First off, if you don’t believe you have a damn good shot at winning when Clemens was on the mound for most of his career, you’re an idiot.  Second, there’s nothing to this “aura” crap.  Why is it that every guy that puts on those pinstripes and does well has an “aura”?  Did Pettitte not have said aura in Houston, where he pitched pretty well?  Third, he’s having a decent year and helping stabilize a shaky New York rotation that really has just CC Sabathia and average at best junk after.  But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

For the year, Andy has a K-rate of 8.1, BB-rate of 1.8, a WHIP of 1.009 and all are better than his career numbers by a decent margin (6.6 and 2.8 and 1.353 respectively).  It’s possible that at age (almost) 40 he’s learned to be a better pitcher.  But, like every other pitcher that seems to be doing well for a short amount of time or poorly for a short amount of time and sports writers need to acknowledge it, his BABIP is unbelievably low.  Career he has a BABIP of 312.  This year?  Try 253.  That’s a very very large gap.  And, that will probably come up quite a bit which will make that shiny WHIP go back to his usual and he’ll be the regular ol’ 117 ERA+ Andy Pettite that we all know and have some affection for.  And if he doesn’t, it’ll be the luckiest thing this year.  More so than Baltimore being in the lead of the AL East in June.  And that’s just weird!

New York Yankees - Looking at the Rotation

Alright, time to wrap up the AL East. It’s time to look at the Yankees rotation. Truth be told, I was dragging my feet about this one, hoping against hope that the rotation would go through one stellar turn before I wrote this, and in the end... didn’t happen. So here we are: a staff that was expected to be anchored by CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda has been the exception to the rule that good pitching wins ball games. The defending AL East champs have gotten almost no value out of their starting rotation so far and if it weren’t for a stellar bullpen it’d be easy to see the Yanks doing no better than the dumpster fire that has been the Boston Red Sox so far.

Sabathia has been ugly over his first 4 starts, though his WHIP, walk rate, and strikeout rates have all been solid, he’s giving up home runs at about twice his normal pace. Despite being 31 years old Sabathia is in his 12th big league season. With all of his peripherals looking pretty good, his ERA will likely start to follow. As is the case for all of the Yankees pitchers, his BABIP is exceedingly high, and if last season is any indication, it could well stay that way.

Kuroda is going to experience some rough starts as he adjusts to a much more potent division and away from the very pitcher friendly parks of the NL West. Kuroda has been up and down in his 4 starts, pitching very well against the Angels, and pitching well enough to get a win almost any other day of the week against the Rangers and their new phenom Yu Darvish. He has however also had two very rough starts. As Kuroda settles in he should make adjustments to the AL. Expecting his numbers from last season would be unrealistic, but expecting to see some balance of the two pitchers he’s been so far is very plausable.

Phil Hughes has not looked good so far, going less than 3 innings in his most recent start, and compiling an ugly (7.88) ERA so far. Hughes’ fastball has been moving well, but his changeup isn’t very far along, and he’s been leaving his curveball up and very hittable so far. Unfortunately for Hughes as noted at River Ave Blues, a starting pitcher can not survive on one pitch. His BABIP is very high, more so than the team average by a fair bit but Hughes seems to give up hits to the outfield in droves. He needs to work on getting the ball down in the zone  if he expects to still be in the rotation at mid-season.

Ivan Nova has been the most consistent Yankee starter so far, and that is due in large part to what appears to be absolutely pinpoint control so far. He’s walking less than 1 batter per game, and striking out more than 1 per inning. He’s giving up a lot of hits, but his BABIP is sitting at a very robust .389, and that likely will fall if he is willing to relinquish some of the flashy stats for more ground balls.Nova’s giving up more fly balls and more line drives than last year, which are likely coming from a more strikeout friendly pitching approach. Nova hasn’t been unhittable, but he’s been very good so far, so it’s hard to say he needs to start looking to induce more ground balls, though it appears he can certainly turn that on if he has to.

Freddy Garcia has been worse than Hughes so far, and a lot of that looks to be his command failing him. Garcia isn’t a fireballer, he lives on the corners of the plate with nothing but smoke and mirrors. If Garcia can find his control there’s no reason he can’t perform as well as he did last year. Garcia’s BABIP is extraordinarily high sitting at .419 which spells disaster for a contact pitcher. Asking for him to return to last season’s 3.62 ERA might be a bit hopeful, but he can certainly pitch better than he has so far, and for his own sake he’ll have to with Andy Pettite likely to make his big league return in about two weeks. Garcia’s control is the X factor here, if he can start locating pitches he’ll start seeing much better results but at the moment his command is terrifyingly inconsistent.

As a bonus: Andy Pettite has been pitching pretty well in his minor league appearances trying to ramp up to 100 pitches. He has been locating balls very well keeping near a 3:1 strike to ball ratio so far. Pettite is not going to inject any youth into the rotation, but there is very little to say about decline over his 16 major league seasons, there may be some rust but Pettite’s return might be just what the Yankees need to start reversing their rotation woes.

As I said in the opening, the Yankees are the exception that proves the rule, for about 5 innings per game, they’ve received the worst pitching in the league, but have been able to overcome that and currently hold a 10 - 8 record. Jeter’s strong start has helped mask an otherwise unspectacular start for most of the lineup, and without major contributions from the bullpen, the Yanks would not be in a position to compete right now. I’d look for the rotation to turn it around, or for Cashman and Girardi to start shaking things up.