Jeremy Guthrie's Next Contract

Trying to make sense out of Jeremy Guthrie is almost like trying to explain the color red to a blind man. Guthrie was drafted by the Mets, wouldn’t sign, drafted by the Pirates, wouldn’t sign, and finally is the 22nd pick of the 2002 draft. He couldn’t put it together in three short seasons with Cleveland, they give up on him and let him go to Baltimore where he promptly turns it on for two years, follows it up with an inexplicable stinker in ‘09. Has a great year after that, then a weaker, but still respectable year in 2011. They sent him to the Rockies for two effective pitchers in Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. He was so bad that he was traded after ½ of a season for Jonathan Sanchez. He emerges as the replacement for Sanchez in the KC rotation and turns it on again.

It appears that Guthrie really flourishes when people give up on him. He can really turn it on, just concentrate on pitching, but not until he makes himself a burden first. He is a free agent after this season, and the market is thin on top flight pitchers. Guthrie was truly awful in the first ½ this season, just terrible, So much so that he was relegated to the bullpen to limit the damage he could do in a given week.  In all fairness, the time in Colorado was the worst he’s been for any extended stretch in his professional career, and a lot of it can be attributed to his home starts in Coors field, the thin air ruins the break of a curveball, and in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances at Coors this year, he gave up 14 home runs and 20 doubles over 41 and ⅔ innings. By comparison he’s made 8 starts at Kauffman Stadium this year and has given up 5 doubles, 3 homers, and pitched 12 & ⅓ more innings.

He is also a flyball pitcher, so that much cannot be excused, if you’re letting opposing hitters put the ball in the air in Coors field you may as well just let them put it in the seats and jog around the bases. All in all, the first ½ of this season could be considered a wash for Guthrie who was all but set up to fail from the onset. Poor decisions made by the Colorado Rockies front office may well negatively impact Guthrie’s next contract unfairly.

Looking at the 2013 free agent class for starters we’re faced with a near formulaic grouping: There are a few excellent starters coming off strong years in their late 20s/early 30s looking to sign a big multi year deal (Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, and to a lesser extent Edwin Jackson), there are older pitchers who are still productive enough to look for a multi year contract, but are realistically going to receive a one year contract (Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Millwood, and Ryan Dempster), effective innings eaters (Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders), reclamation projects (Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka), and guys who aren’t living up to their potential (Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, arguably Carlos Zambrano). There’s no particular group that Guthrie fits into, he was terrible for ½ of a year, and he’s been an ace for ½ of a year. What do you do with that?

I think that many teams will be wary of the hot and cold nature of Guthrie’s performance but some are bound to be enticed by his potential. He’s got a successful track record, but has had bouts with ineffectiveness that have made his ace like potential difficult to count on. I am unsure of whether Guthrie will receive a multi-year contract, he’s 34 so counting on a 3+ year contract is unlikely, but maybe a 2 year contract somewhere around an annual value of 8 Million is not out of the question, but many teams may offer more on a 1 year contract with a 2nd year team option, maybe 10 million with a 2 million buyout and a 10 million 2nd year? Someone may be willing to overpay for his services given his track record but this season has certainly made it difficult to assess his true value to an acquiring team. There will certainly be suitors who are willing to give him a shot, possibly someone in the NL west, or the rebuilding Astros. In his position I may be one to look for a chance at the playoffs though, possibly accepting a 1 year deal with the Rays, White Sox, A’s, Yankees, Nationals, Braves, etc. would be in line with getting a chance at the championship. The Royals may make a play to keep the Stanford grad in their rotation, and there may be some interest in the NL Central from teams like the Cubbies, a pitcher like Guthrie can be valuable trade bait at the deadline if his contract is reasonable, so he may be a good gamble for a team that won’t likely be in the playoff hunt, but is looking to compete in a few years time.

Mets: Extending Dickey?

The Mets are obviously going to exercise their $5 million option on pitcher R.A. Dickey, and they have openly stated that they would like to extend the knuckleballer, but that creates a few questions. How many years should they offer a 38 year old pitcher? How much should they offer a knuckleball pitcher per year? How different is Dickey from a typical knuckleballer?

Many people will tell you that throwing a knuckleball isn’t as strenuous for the pitcher as a curveball or a slider. That is true to a point, but there are a lot more variables here than that. The equation isn’t simply “knuckleball = no elbow trouble”, and Dickey’s average velocity on his knuckleball is this season, 13 mph faster than Tim Wakefield’s career average. While Wake through his knuckler about 64 mph Dickey’s pitch according to fangraphs is running about 77 on average, his fastball as well sits in the mid 80s. He’s not your prototypical “put it up there and see what he can do with it” knuckleballer, because of the speed of his pitch Dickey is more accurately able to place the pitch and its movements are more subtle. Dickey is kind of the “new breed” of knuckleball pitcher, and has over the past 3 years been a very effective, often dominant starter.

The hardest thing to have take in here is that there is no real comparable here. Dickey isn’t like any other pitchers. Dickey is statistically an outlier, most pitchers don’t suddenly become dominant at 36, most knuckleballers aren’t dominant, and most dominant pitchers don’t throw over 90% of their pitches between 77 and 84 mph. We have to look at Dickey in broad strokes: He’s a recently dominant right handed starter, he’s giving his team a lot of innings per year, He’s 38 years old, and he throws the least controllable pitch in major league baseball around 80% of the time. Putting all of that together it’s a hard list to figure. If he threw like Mike Mussina at the same age, 14mil for 1 year with a team option for another 14+ wouldn’t be out of the question. If his track record were more consistent (prior to his Mets tenure) the same could likely be said. He is however instead a ridiculously dominant knuckleballer nearing 40 years old. I don’t know if his annual will be any higher than 10, maybe 12 million but he has an outside shot at a 3 year extension with an option for a 4th year. Could the Mets get clever and use Tim Wakefield’s previous contract model? A recurring option for a set price? Would Dickey be interested in that kind of cost certainty without any real promise of continued employment year to year, maybe the buyout would need to be rather high, around ½ of the annual salary?

While I like Dickey as a pitcher, I have some (I believe understandable) reservations about him. I think he has found his groove, he locates an unlocatable pitch, he’s been healthy, and he hasn’t shown any particular slip in his productivity, in fact his FIP this season is significantly lower than it was over either of the previous two seasons. He does however live and die by the most volatile pitch in baseball, if he develops a mechanical issue, “correcting” it might not be enough to get him back to who he is today. When a power pitcher starts getting out ahead of his pitches and starts letting fastballs sail too high, it can be corrected, when a finesse pitcher loses their arm slot and their slider only moves laterally it can be corrected, but when a knuckleball doesn’t exist within the perfect storm that makes it effective, it’s a BP fastball or it becomes a wild pitch. While he is a knuckleballer, and empirical evidence shows that if you throw a knuckleball you can throw forever, or at least until you get tired of playing baseball for money, Dickey throws it a lot harder than average which could make him the unfortunate exception to that rule.

All of that said, if I were in the Mets front office I might be willing to try to strike a pretty aggressive deal, a 3 year extension, for 32 mil, broken down as 12, 10, 10, followed by a recurring team option for 6 mil with a 2.5 mil buyout. If you were in Dickey’s shoes, would that be enough to put your name on paper?

What Can The Rox Do With Jeremy Guthrie?

The Rockies have decided to stake out suitors for their control challenged and homer prone right hander. I am of course referring to Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie was an “ace” in Baltimore for the past 5 years, but that was more by default than it was due to incredible performance. When Dan Duquette decided to pull the trigger and send Guthrie to Colorado he got back a younger starter in Jason Hammel and a solid reliever in Matt Lindstrom. So far both of those two are putting together excellent years, Guthrie at his best would be envious of Hammel’s season so far. Guthrie’s big pitch has always been a curveball, which doesn’t exactly break right in Colorado, but recently he has been bad across the board, maybe the bad home games have shaken his confidence and he’s trying to find a new pitch to complement his fastball.

The Rox aren’t looking to get a great return on their investment in Guthrie, who is making a bit over 8 million this year and will be going to arbitration for the final time at season’s end. He’s a better pitcher than he has appeared over the course of his career, and if he ended up in a spacious home park, Guthrie might well be able to turn this season around. He’s not likely to turn around like A.J. Burnett has this season, but he’s certainly capable of putting up better numbers in a different park. The biggest question I would have is really, who is looking for a buy low pitcher on a 1 year contract who at his best is going to provide No. 2 pitcher stats, at his worst, couldn’t be buried far enough down the list in the bullpen.

The Blue Jays have been tied to Guthrie early on, but what they’d be trying to do with him is unclear. I suppose there could be something to be said about having a veteran in the rotation, but it feels like they would be taking on salary to waive the white flag and say that they are content to miss the playoffs yet again this year. They are all of 3 games out of playoff contention at the moment, and could with a little boost here or there make a run at one of the wildcard spots, but considering Guthrie’s performance so far this season, and his track record he’s not liable to be an upgrade anywhere for the club.

I think that if any teams in contention were looking to sure up their rotation without making any major impact on their farm system it would be more likely to see Guthrie headed to Cincinnati or making a return to the Indians. I don’t know that many teams at the bottom of their respective divisions would really be interested in giving up a prospect (mid to low tier or otherwise) to receive a pitcher who can’t promise to deliver anything significant. Guthrie isn’t as bad as he’s been this year, and he’d certainly be a candidate for a buy low sell high situation for his new team. The risk there is that he is already making 8.2 million this season, and won’t make any less than that next year, so if he’s not providing better value his new club wouldn’t be in line to get anything from their investment but an expensive back of the rotation pitcher.

Guthrie may be a prudent move for the Seattle Mariners, the Twins, KC, or Milwaukee but that would be strictly as a year to year investment. It would be a team that’s out of contention jockeying for a more or less money only commitment that could net a valuable prospect at next year’s trade deadline, or assist them when they would otherwise sit on the cusp of contention next season. Overall, he’s currently managed to make his stock with the Rox all but disappear and the team is tired of him already. He may be on his way to being a Milton Bradley or Carlos Silva type of malcontent and mid level talent. I don’t know that Guthrie really has anything in the way of an attitude problem, but it is telling that Dan Duquette dealt him so quickly, and the Rox are already looking to find him a new home rather than searching for a solution to his issues with the team.

Aura, Pinstripes and Pettitte

Andy Pettitte.  “Mr. Game 2” (isn’t that a dumb name?).  A man that has “the aura”.  It’s so powerful that “ Perceived or not, his teammates believe in it, like they once believed in the likes of Clemens and Cone.”  First off, if you don’t believe you have a damn good shot at winning when Clemens was on the mound for most of his career, you’re an idiot.  Second, there’s nothing to this “aura” crap.  Why is it that every guy that puts on those pinstripes and does well has an “aura”?  Did Pettitte not have said aura in Houston, where he pitched pretty well?  Third, he’s having a decent year and helping stabilize a shaky New York rotation that really has just CC Sabathia and average at best junk after.  But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

For the year, Andy has a K-rate of 8.1, BB-rate of 1.8, a WHIP of 1.009 and all are better than his career numbers by a decent margin (6.6 and 2.8 and 1.353 respectively).  It’s possible that at age (almost) 40 he’s learned to be a better pitcher.  But, like every other pitcher that seems to be doing well for a short amount of time or poorly for a short amount of time and sports writers need to acknowledge it, his BABIP is unbelievably low.  Career he has a BABIP of 312.  This year?  Try 253.  That’s a very very large gap.  And, that will probably come up quite a bit which will make that shiny WHIP go back to his usual and he’ll be the regular ol’ 117 ERA+ Andy Pettite that we all know and have some affection for.  And if he doesn’t, it’ll be the luckiest thing this year.  More so than Baltimore being in the lead of the AL East in June.  And that’s just weird!

Los Angeles Dodgers: Overrated Rotation?

The LA Dodgers have maintained a stranglehold on their division, though that has diminished some over the past week. The team is most certainly built to compete despite their recent sale. The Dodgers are certainly a club with the major league talent and a strong enough farm to compete. They have been dealing with their share of injuries lately, though their strong rotation has been a constant all season.

Nathan Eovaldi gas made two spot starts for the Dodgers and has looked pretty solid in both outings. He hasn’t been so spectacular as to declare him the next Matt Cain or anything, but he’s gotten good results which is more than you see out of most spot starters. He’s bounced back and forth between LA and their AA affiliate for the past 2 seasons, and while he walks too many batters by a fairly large margin, he is proving to be reasonably capable in short stints with the big club. He’s probably not a huge part of the Dodgers rotation plans, but he’s certainly not the worst option out there. He’s showing a lot of potential overall, but it’s all small sample size stuff. I don’t know that he’d hold up particularly well with more tape on him at the major league level, but he’s certainly been a help to the Dodgers so far.

Ted Lilly has twice hit the DL this season, and that’s not encouraging this early on. At 36 he has been having a very productive season, but the two starts he’s missed so far are only the tip of the iceberg there. He’s been relatively ineffective over his last 3 starts, while some of that ineffectiveness has been masked by errors making 5 of the 17 runs he’s given up over his last 16 & ⅔ innings unearned. That said, Lilly has gone 6+ in every start but his most recent when he walked away with discomfort in his pitching shoulder. I don’t know that anyone expected Ted Lilly to be a top flight starter, largely because he’s not. He’s a fine pitcher, more mid to back of the rotation talent but he does what’s asked of him and every now and again he might surprise you with a great year, but overall he’s going to eat innings, keep his team in games, and that’s more or less that. He’s been better since coming to the NL about walking batters, and his strikeout numbers have been more or less constant throughout his career. This year, those numbers are much less good than one would hope, but he’s also allowing almost 2 hits less per 9 than his career average. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and this season in between his two DL stints he wasn’t quite that guy, getting more ground balls than usual by a lot, and limiting line drives to 14% of all balls in play. If his peripheral stats stay where they are, batters will adjust, and start teeing off on him, if he can get his strikeout and walk issues under control, he will probably be fine.

Chad Billingsley is striking batters out at a health rate (60 strikeouts over 61 & ⅔ innings) and walking batters at a reasonable, if higher than I’d like rate (25 free passes so far). Nothing Billingsley is doing is really out of the norm for him though none of it’s impressive in the NL West either. He’s pitching to a 4.09 ERA and a 91 ERA+, which is better than last year’s line, but only marginally. He’s getting ground balls at exactly the same rate as last year, but giving up line drives and homers a bit more frequently. This isn’t exactly an impressive year for Billingsley so far. He’s pitched well enough, 5 quality starts so far, and only one real implosion. I understand that if one were to only ever meet the requirements for a quality start (6 innings pitched, 3 runs) they would have a 4.50 ERA, but his biggest problem hasn’t so much been giving up runs hand over fist, but that he’s had 3 outings of 4 innings or less so far, and has given up 3+ earned runs in 5 starts. He’s not pitching impressively so far, and while he’s pitched quite well before, he looks to have settled in as a relatively solid back of the rotation starter and nothing more.

Aaron Harang is looking pretty average, better than his career numbers would indicate, but not overwhelming either. He’s doing well with his strikeout numbers, and doing alright with his walk rate having 56 strikeouts and 24 walks over his 64 & ⅔ innings. He’s pretty much pitching to his career numbers, a pretty solid flyball pitcher, and too many line drives. Harang isn’t going to suddenly start blowing people away, he’s more of an unrealized talent than he is  anything else. He had two very good years in Cincinnati but has otherwise been below average his entire career. While he strikes out batters well enough, and exhibited a good ability to limit walks in the mid 2000s, he has since started giving up more walks, and just appears to be incapable of really fooling batters. Harang isn’t going to start blowing batters away any time soon, but he’s able to keep the back of the rotation from sinking into complete disarray.

Chris Capuano has apparently decided he’s a different pitcher now, after a series of underwhelming years in Milwaukee and a season of generally underwhelming results for the Mets he has up and started destroying the competition so far. over 68 & ⅓ innings Capuano has struck out 61 batters, walked 25, and is giving up 3 fewer hits per 9 than he has at any other point in his career. Capuano isn’t preventing line drives any better than he has in the past, and he’s giving up more fly balls but his BABIP is sitting about 60 points lower than his career mark at .243. I call shenanigans. I fully believe that Capuano isn’t this pitcher that he’s suddenly become at 33 years old, and that he’s due to regress, and when those line drives and extra fly balls start to fall in, he’s going to be in trouble. Maybe the Dodgers saw something in him that I can’t see, because they did sign him for 2 years with an option for 2014, but I’d look at this as an unsustainable line, the 5 & ⅓ inning, 7 run (4 earned) performance he put up to open the month is likely more of the guy we’re going to see than the guy who went 7 in Houston and only gave up 2 hits 5 days prior.

Clayton Kershaw is perhaps the only starter on this staff who can be called legitimate. At 24 years old he has proved more than any given other member of this staff regardless of service time. He’s managed to work his control down to about 2 walks per 9 over the past 4 years, and it’s staying right there this season. He’s not striking batters out like he has in the past, but he’s still going deep into games so it’s hard to complain. He’s pitched 81 & ⅓ innings so far and has gone 7 or more innings in 8 of his starts so far. It’s not as though the Dodgers are stretching him either, he’s thrown a season high 117 pitches twice and only thrown over 110 pitches on 3 occasions. Kershaw is inducing a bit more contact than usual, but he’s getting roughly 50% ground balls as well, he’s also only allowing 15% line drives. He is giving up homers a bit more frequently than ever before, but that’s bound to happen when you start pitching to contact, and he’s still not giving up that many homers (7). Kershaw is clearly the anchor for this staff, and is easily capable of stopping a skid on any given day. If there was one member of this starting rotation I’d put money on at any point it’s Kershaw.

The Dodgers are still holding onto a 3 game lead in the NL West, and while they have the 4th best team ERA in the NL, I doubt seriously Capuano’s ability to continue at this rate and that could be their undoing if he unravels sooner rather than later. The Dodgers have the 5th most runs scored in the National League as well, which give their pitcher friendly home park is great, they’re taking walks better than anyone else, and have the highest OBP in the league. The team is in a less than perfect position with the Giants nipping at their heels as injuries haven’t helped them. If they don’t make a move to upgrade their rotation by the deadline they might seriously be shooting themselves in the foot and end up taking a wildcard spot to see any post season play.

San Francisco Giants: How Far Can the Rotation Take Them?

The San Francisco Giants have managed to stay afloat so far, and with the tight battle in the NL East, could eek out a playoff spot despite the Dodgers command on their division. The Giants have their question marks like any other team, but how much of that really comes into play in the starting rotation?

Ryan Vogelsong returned to the show last season after 5 years between Japan and the Minor Leagues. When Vogelsong left the states he had put together several years of generally ineffective pitching and after bouncing through 3 organizations before returning to the Giants in 2010 and joining their AAA team. He had clearly learned more in those few years than could be put into words. He re-emerged last season as a 33 year old ace caliber pitcher. He has so far this year managed to continue his dominance. He has so far pitched no less than 6 innings in any given outing, and has only given up 3 or more runs on 3 occasions this season. He does walk an abnormally large number of batters, 26 so far over his 61 innings but while he’s walking about 10% of batters faced, he is striking out around 18% as well, and has limited opposing hitters ability to put good wood on the ball, so far only 16% of balls in play have been line drives. Vogelsong has been effective so far, and more importantly very consistent on top of it. It looks like Vogelsong’s hot year last year was no fluke. Though I’d like to see him limit walks a bit more, there’s no arguing with his results, I don’t know that he’ll keep up this pace but he certainly has the ability to really help keep the Giants in the playoff race.

Madison Bumgarner didn’t start the year with his best performance, but has since that disappointing 4 inning outing, he has gone 6+ in each start having compiled 6 quality starts in 10 opportunities so far this season. So far in 66 innings he has sent 47 batters back to the dugout without contact, and has given up only 14 free passes. While the strikeout rate isn’t overwhelming, giving up less than 2 walks per 9 is very encouraging. Bumgarner seems to be relying on ground balls a bit more this season than he has over the past 2 seasons, racking them up a bit more than half of the time while keeping opposing batters to an extremely anemic 12% line drives. I wouldn’t look for the line drive rate to continue, but even if it comes up a bit it shouldn’t absolutely destroy the young pitcher. He has given up 7 home runs so far, which isn’t overwhelming, and is more in line with reality than the .5 per 9 he gave up last season. Bumgarner looks pretty good all things considered, but I’d be very surprised if he was able to force opposing hitters into making bad contact like this all year, in all likelihood he’ll stay effective, but will probably start giving up a few more hits as batters start adjusting and making better contact.

Matt Cain is putting up some excellent numbers this season, and is so far building upon his dominance from last year. He’s walking less than 2 batters per 9, has struck out 66 batters already, and has thrown 71 innings over his first 10 starts. He made quite the statement going back to back with 9 inning shutout performances (though the 2nd was not a complete game). Cain has been a beast so far, compiling 8 quality starts in 10 attempts and generally improving in almost every way from last season. The biggest concern one could have with Cain is that he’s regressed in his groundball/flyball splits. He’s giving up an overwhelming amount of fly balls, though he has shown that he can be incredibly effective when pitching like that. The NL west is known for allowing flyball pitchers to appear incredibly effective while being much less well suited to playing in a more hitter friendly stadium/division. Cain is making every effort to make good on his extension though, and looks like he’s going to be well worth what they’re paying him out in San Fran this year, even if he’d look less impressive on the east coast.

Tim Lincecum is looking like he’s taken an overall nosedive in effectiveness. Lincecum has been able to eat innings, but with mixed results and nothing approaching his dominance over the past 4 seasons. His walk rate is through the roof at 34 free passes in 60 & ⅓ innings. Lincecum’s BABIP is up to an ugly .333 likely in large part to his 22% line drive rate and his decreased effectiveness in getting ground balls. He’s never been a ground ball pitcher per se but he is typically more effective in keeping the ball on the ground than he has been this year, and for a pitcher who has averages 26+% strikeouts he can certainly give up a few fly balls without hurting his ERA. This season, everything seems to be betraying him however. He’s walking roughly ⅛ of the batters he faces and while he’s still striking out more than 1 per inning,  he’s getting fewer strikeouts than in the past. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him start to round into form as the year progresses but there’s not really any reason for hiccup in effectiveness. Perhaps he’s battling minor injury, perhaps he’s seeing a small mechanical issue, maybe he’s tipping pitches, but what is for sure is that he’s not quite right, and his walk rate has shown that more than anything else.

Barry Zito has continued to be the worst investment that the Giants have made in the last several years finally started providing a return on the Giants investment. Zito has had his rough starts this year, but so far he’s only really left the team hanging twice. He came out in his first start and put together a complete game shutout and followed that up with 3 more solid performances. Zito is still walking a lot of batters, so far 26 in his 58 innings pitched, and he’s most certainly a contact pitcher having only struck out 34 so far. He’s doing a good job of keeping hitters off balance and avoiding line drives (15%) but otherwise looks relatively pedestrian. I don’t know exactly what the Giants can expect out of Zito for the season, but at the moment he’s contributing, and that’s all anyone can really expect from him after 5 years of consistent disappointment. Zito might not actually be any better than he’s been over the past few years, but the extended stint on the DL last year might have been exactly what he needed to finally get himself right.

Overall it looks like the rotation is a strength in San Fran again this season, despite Lincecum’s troubles, the rest of the rotation really has stepped up to make for a very strong rotation. The Giants have the 4th best team ERA in the NL so far, and if Lincecum can right the ship, their rotation will be as formidable as any in the MLB. Their offense has been something of an interesting study, they have the 5th best batting average, but the 8th OBP and 10th most runs. Despite being quite proficient in making contact as a team, they’re not walking, and not hitting for power. I see them as a legitimate contender to snag a wildcard spot given the close race in the NL East preventing any given team from running away with that division. Their lineup could do with an upgrade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a move or two near the deadline to really help make a strong push, especially if they can see weakness out of the Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Not a Single Pitcher Adhering to Expectations

The Arizona Diamondbacks, much like the Rockies and Padres, are for all intents and purposes already out of the playoff hunt. That has to be disappointing for a team who had taken the division last season behind some pretty solid pitching and a surprisingly effective offense. This season the division around them looks to have stepped up their game, and the D-Backs haven’t been able to keep pace. The biggest culprit has been some significant regression from their very young starting rotation.

Josh Collmenter has lost his rotation spot after 4 relatively ineffective starts, but having been moved to the bullpen as a long reliever it’s an ever present reality that Collmenter may be asked to spot start in the event of injury from time to time. He has been effective as a reliever, which has likely saved him from demotion, but after 24 starts last year, the demotion to the bullpen was probably not what Collmenter was hoping for.  Collmenter has been fairly effective in relief and by all means appears to be capable of holding onto that job and contributing for the D-Backs consistently.

Daniel Hudson has regressed mightily after a strong showing last season with the D-Backs. Hudson did just return from the DL and though his first outing was a shorter one, it was a step in the right direction giving up only 2 runs over 5 innings. In his 23 innings so far he has walked 9 batters which isn’t atrocious, but his 15 strikeouts aren’t exactly impressive either. He’s getting about 50% ground balls so far, and a rather pedestrian 18% line drive rate so he’s not doing especially poorly anywhere but the 5 home runs he’s given up sting a little. Hudson could return to be more effective than he was in the early going, and if his last 3 seasons (two of them partial) are any indication, Hudson is much more effective than he has been early on and could prove to be much more valuable going forward than he has been in the early going.

Patrick Corbin looks to have been filling in for Hudson during his DL stint, and over that course showed a few relatively effective starts highlighted by a 7 inning 1 run performance against San Francisco. Corbin was of course also shelled in one of his outings and was generally ineffective in another. At 22 years old the promise of his good starts should outweigh the frustration with his less effective outings. His 21% line drive rate is less than impressive, but his 18 strikeouts over 27 & ⅓ innings and his 9 walks to go with them are pretty palatable for a young starter. Corbin may be done in the majors for the time being, but he has gotten a taste of the major leagues, and could be all the better for it. He has shown an ability to learn from his mistakes in the minors and could come back in or before September with some impressive changes made to his approach.

Wade Miley joined the rotation in place of Collmenter and has been lights out all season. His 2.41 ERA is as sparkling a stat as you will see from a 25 year old in his first full season in the majors. He’s put together 52 & ⅓ innings between relief and starting so far, and has been pretty solid across the board. While he’s not striking out a ton of batters (32 so far) he’s not walking the park either (18 walks on the season) and has been effective in not only avoiding damage, but in eating innings, having only missed completing 6 innings once since joining the rotation. He’s pitching to contact effectively enough, and avoiding line drives better than most at 16% of balls in play. He’s also near 50% ground balls so far. He’s very young, but has demonstrated a pretty solid understanding of how to pitch in the majors so far and could be one of the biggest surprises for the D-Backs so far. I don’t know that the league won’t make adjustments and we could see him come back down to earth from his 170 ERA+ but he’s certainly showing reason to believe he can help the team.

Trevor Cahill has compiled 61 & ⅓ innings of work so far, and has been consistent, if somewhat unimpressive so far. He’s pitching to a 3.96 ERA, but has given up 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, two of which were against the San Francisco Giants. Cahill is providing value, if nothing else, and the biggest complaint against the young starter would probably be his 26 walks so far. Not exactly killing himself with walks, but certainly not helping his cause at near 4 per 9. Cahill is an extreme groundball pitcher and if he can get his walk rate down below the 10% mark, he could prove to be a very valuable starting pitcher, capable of going deep in games and with an adequate defense behind him look like quite the star. Currently he’s providing pretty solid value, but could really shine with a bit more polish.

Joe Saunders is proving us all wrong, after an impressive effort at age 30, the general consensus was that he just wasn’t that good, and would likely regress this season. That said he hasn’t. He’s walking fewer, striking out more, and providing effective innings for his team. His 113 ERA+ is a perfect example of such. His career ERA+ is 103, and he’s overall found a way to be better at everything this year, except maybe giving up hits, which he’s doing at about the same rate as always, and slightly worse than last year. He’s limiting opposing batters to 14% line drives, and has otherwise been himself as far as contact rate goes. With that rather low, and likely unsustainable line drive rate in mind, Saunders might be due for a bit of regression, but with his improved control, he might be able to sustain a number that’s not much higher, closer to his career 18% and still be quite effective. I don’t mean to say that Saunders is an actual ace, but for this staff he might be the next best thing.

Ian Kennedy hasn’t quite been able to turn himself back into that rock solid starter and Cy Young contender he was last year, he’s managed some pretty solid starts, and has been eating innings even in his tougher games so far. He is giving up more homers than one might like to see (9) but he’s still working his strikeout and walk numbers very close to last season’s rates, which is promising. IPK is pretty much looking just like the guy who was in the Cy Young race last year, except the results aren’t turning in. He’s not getting any more grounders than last season, actually at his lowest rate since his ‘07 debut with the Yankees, but still very close to the results from the past two seasons. He is keeping hitters off balance enough that they’re only putting up 17% line drives, which is better than he has produced over the past two years, but his BABIP (.317) is about 40 points higher than last year, which could be a product of a bit of bad luck and might come down some as the year progresses. IPK wasn’t exactly a media darling in New York, but he did develop a pretty thick skin, and is probably better for it. He’s likely to get through this and post a respectable season, despite the team’s already effectively dashed hopes for the post season.

I can’t honestly see the D-Backs making a real strong push for the postseason without the rotation putting it together in a hurry. Between the relatively weak starting rotation they’ve put forth all year, they’ve gotten terrible performance overall from Putz despite his 11 saves so far. Their pitching staff is 11th in the NL in ERA and could do to find a way to fix that in a hurry. Their offense is the definition of mediocre, 8th in homers, batting average, slugging percentage, and runs. They’re getting solid production from just about anyone they put out in the field, even if nobody’s been able to carry the team offensively for any stretch of time. If the Dodgers were having a worse year, Arizona would still be in the hunt despite their sub .500 record. That said, they’re 10 games out already, and while their rotation is better now than it has been at any other point this season, it’s not great, and with a middling offense, they’d need to really start blanking opponents for a while to crawl back into any playoff conversation at this point.

Colorado Rockies: How NOT to Build a Rotation

The Colorado Rockies have a significant history of insignificance. While they have made 3 postseason appearances in their short existence, they haven’t been able to capitalize on their occasional success, and in short order fell back off to being a sub .500 club last year. For a long time Coors field was considered nothing, if not a hitters park, and while that may be true despite their use of a humidor to try to deaden the flight of the ball in the thin/dry Rocky Mountain air, there’s no excuse for the quality (or lack thereof) of the Rockies’ staff.

Guillermo Moscoso pitched admirably for Oakland last year, and when given an opportunity to spot start in Colorado was promptly shelled in back to back starts. Moscoso gave up 12 runs in 9 & ⅓ innings. It feels safe to say that while he didn’t help any, he’s not really the problem here, and probably won’t be making any more starts for the Rockies in the immediate future.

Christian Friedrich started strong, with back to back quality starts but has since looked an awful lot more fallible, giving up 8 and 3 runs over 10 total innings. It’s indicative of exactly what the expectations are in Colorado that his most recent 5 inning 3 run start has been cited as a good performance. Now granted it is a serviceable start, he did strike out 6 and he only walked 1 batter but that’s not what you’re looking for out of your starters. 5 innings, no matter how dominant are not a goal most starters should have. That said, Friedrich has managed to strike out over 25% of batters faced, and could provide some value for the Rox. He is however an extreme flyball pitcher around 75% of balls in play going to the sky, and 31% of balls in play are line drives so far. Those are unsustainable numbers for any semblance of extended success. That said, he’s only faced 101 batters so far, so this is a case  where the sample size, could be indicative of nothing more than the amount of data, not the value of the results.

Drew Pomeranz has not made himself out to be a terrifically effective starter so far. Pomeranz has been out since May 7th with a bruised quad, but in the 5 starts he managed for the Rox, he only made it into the 6th inning once, in his 6 & ⅔ inning effort against the Dodgers. In the early going, Pomeranz showed a propensity for the walk, this season allowing 15 free passes to his 20 strikeouts in only 23 innings. I don’t know exactly what to say about Pomeranz’s performance, it seems to be pretty clear, he managed 1 valuable start for his team in 5 attempts, and only because of how few innings he had pitched, he was able to bring his ERA under 5 with that performance, and while his two starts preceding that outing had been positive enough, only 3 total runs over 9 innings, he did walk 6 batters over those 9 innings and 4 more over that one quality start. He’s not exactly impressing in his rehab starts at the moment either, but he is perhaps rediscovering a delivery that is less erratic. I don’t see Pomeranz making a serious impact for the Rox this season but at 23 there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a more effective starter. With that said, the team may decide to suffer through some more of his brand of pitching if he can keep from walking the bases loaded in AAA.

Jhoulys Chacin looks to have fallen off from his excellent season last year in a big way. Early this month the Rox put him on the 15 day DL with shoulder inflammation, which turned out to be a torn pectoral muscle. Chacin walks too many batters when he’s on, so when that got worse, that might have been cause for concern, but perhaps this issue has been bothering him longer than we knew. Weakness in his pitching arm would certainly be cause for concern if it impacts his ability to spot his pitches. He’s been up and down in his ground ball rates but he’s at an all time low this year, and his line drive rate (24%) is 9% higher than last year. All of this is cause for concern. I’d expect some type of rebound as the season wears on, but Chacin needs to make sure he’s got good strength in that arm before making any starts in the minors.

Alex White is not exactly pitching himself into the good graces of management either, though as I’ve highlighted so far, they might not really be any pickier than having warm bodies on the field at the moment. White has 2 quality starts so far, and has looked to be one of the better overall options for the Rox this season despite his unsightly 6.28 ERA. He’s not walking a ton of batters so far, and has 18 strikeouts over his first 28 & ⅔ innings. Not exactly overpowering but potentially more effective than some of his rotation mates. He is sitting with an ugly .337 BABIP despite his ground ball pitching so far. He is giving up 21% of balls in play as line drives, which is higher than may be desirable, but he is getting batters to swing on top of pitches, and that can eventually breed success. He’s not preventing home runs in any intense fashion, but 4 over his first 5 starts isn’t terrible, just not good. Overall, White could work out to be better than he has shown so far in Colorado, but at the moment he’s just a warm body on the mound. Overall, White is another young pitcher on this staff at only 23 years old pitching in one of the worst pitchers parks in baseball. He’s not excelling on the road either, but confidence and experience could go a long way toward helping resolve those issues.

Juan Nicasio is looking a bit shaky as well, though he does have the best ERA of the regular starters for the team, which isn’t saying a lot at 5.11 but he has hovered around a much more acceptable 4.50 between bad starts. He has managed to put together some very good starts, and has gone 6 innings or more in 6 of his 10 starts so far, so if there’s one thing Nicasio is doing better than anyone else for the Rox, he’s battling to save the bullpen, even when he’s not at his best. He has walked 21 batters over the 56 & ⅓ innings he’s given his club so far, but he’s also struck out 53, so while his walk rate isn’t exactly palatable, he is doing pretty well to get timely strikeouts despite it. He is allowing an unsettling amount of fly balls and 26% of balls in play have been liners, which doesn’t sound pretty, and it isn’t. He’s given up 7 homers so far, which isn’t terrible, though when you’re giving up fly balls like he is, more are bound to leave the yard than one would like. Overall Nicasio has shown great promise, despite not getting excellent results, and that might continue to be the case throughout the year.

Jeremy Guthrie is a curveball pitcher, he throws it about 12% of the time. They don’t break well in Colorado and that has been evident in Guthrie’s results. Guthrie was the staff ace for a bad staff for 5 years in Baltimore, and looks to be showing exactly what he’s made of so far for the Rox. Guthrie’s curve heavy arsenal is killing him at home, so far in all 3 starts at home he’s given up 6 earned runs in each start, and given up 5 homers. When a curveball doesn’t break, it’s a BP fastball, and that’s not good news in a live game situation. Guthrie has pitched pretty well on the road, his last road start being anything but pretty, though some of that could be attributed to the error(s) that lead to 4 unearned runs scoring. He’s not been able to get the strikeout numbers he’s used to, and he’s giving up walks in near 10% of plate appearances, which is a terrible combination. He’s also seeing 24% of balls in play go for line drives, up from a career mark of 18%. He’s given up 9 home runs in his 40 & ⅔ innings so far, which works out to about 2 per 9 innings pitched. Guthrie needs to rely more on his slider and change at home to get through that thin air, and while he might be working it out, he couldn’t do so fast enough for the Rox.

Jamie Moyer may be the oldest player in major league baseball, he has literally been pitching longer than I’ve been alive, and this season, at 49 years old he seems to be up and down. He has pitched a total 53 & ⅔ innings for the Rox so far, and could well turn his most recent troubles around in his next start. He does, above all else, know how to pitch. Moyer looks to be as much a victim of bad luck as anything else so far. His .350 BABIP is unsightly to say the least, to realize that it’s over 60 points higher than his career mark is perhaps more unsettling. I don’t believe it’s anything but hasty to say that Moyer is done. He’s a smoke and mirrors finesse pitcher, but he’s been that guy for years and has shown the ability to provide legitimate value for the Rox. It is somewhat worrisome that he’s walking more than he has since his world series championship with the Phillies, but his strikeout rate is right around the mark he produced that season as well. He is giving up a few too many homers for my liking (11 in 10 starts), but his line drive rate (19%) is right about his career average. Moyer might well be the best pitcher on this staff regardless of age or arsenal. He’s looking to be the only starter who’s actually getting robbed by his own team. there’s no excuse for a .350 BABIP, and that will come down, and once it does, his WHIP should follow.

The Rockies aren’t exactly known for having a dominant pitching staff, they have to combat an oversized outfield, an outright inability to use some breaking pitches at home, and until recently were saddled with the most homer happy park in the majors. What’s perhaps most frustrating for the Rockies is that they have the 3rd most productive lineup in the National league, but are 10 games under .500. That’s going to happen when you have the second worst team ERA in the league. The honor of “most embarrassing pitching staff in baseball” belongs to the Minnesota Twins, but with the Rox problems keeping starters healthy, that much could change at any time. While the team website has been declaring this the “year of the fan”, it has to tough to root for a team that could squander a 10 run lead in any given inning.

San Diego Padres: Could It Get Any Worse?

The San Diego Padres have not set themselves up for success so far this season, and it’s not something that’s exactly shocking to anyone. The Padres didn’t exactly go out of their way to become a better team this past offseason, and have made it a habit to trade away top talent for prospects and/or youth and cost certainty. While they’ve been able to compete on and off, it’s certainly an “off” year so far, and they look to be spending the season at the bottom of the division for the 2nd consecutive time under Buddy Black. Looking at their rotation it becomes quite obvious why they’re not competing this year, and look I shall!

Jeff Suppan has actually given up more runs in each consecutive start than he had in the previous start all May. Suppan’s struck out a grand total of 7 batters to his 13 walks over 30 & ⅔ innings. So there are a few things that can be said immediately, Suppan isn’t eating innings, and after his 3rd start has also stopped helping his team compete. The biggest question is why. He’s giving up walks, sure, but he’s also getting ground balls like never before, so far over 50% for the first time in his career. 80% of plate appearances are ending with the ball in play, which is admittedly high, but with a consistent groundball rate, that shouldn’t totally kill him. He is also walking near 10% of batters so far, which means in 93% of situations (home runs aren’t counted in balls in play) he’s giving batters the opportunity to run the base paths. He’s not giving up line drives though at only 15% of balls in play. His BABIP doesn’t suggest this is luck though sitting at .273, which is below both the league and his career marks. Suppan is actually giving opposing batters so many chances to put the ball in play that he’s being beaten into submission purely by the volume of opportunities he’s giving opposing batters. If Suppan can’t figure out how to turn those walks into strikeouts, he’s not going to fare any better over the course of the year.

Joe Wieland has been underwhelming so far though his season looks uglier than it may really be. He’s only had 2 bad starts in his 5 turns, so in under 30 innings of work, the young man’s not exactly providing an excellent sample to work from. Wieland is on the DL at the moment, but should have already started his throwing routine to get himself back on track. He’s getting strikeouts fine, and he hasn’t been wild, so aside from concerns that he’s given up 5 homers so far, he looks capable of contributing upon his return. Wieland is preventing line drives well (14%), which could indicate positive things for the young pitcher. He’s certainly pitching home games in the right park to forgive a few mistakes here and there, and could well prove that he’s better than his rough starts indicate. He has however not touched the 7th inning so far, and could do to try to work a bit more efficiently as the season progresses.

Eric Stults has so far made 3 starts on the season, one for the White Sox who, for reasons unbeknownst to me waived him after providing a 6 inning 2 run effort and ⅔ of an inning of scoreless relief. The Padre’s managed quite the coup in snagging the 32 year old off waivers. His start today will be the 28th of his career, and while he’s not exactly a strikeout artist he has shown a knack for limiting damage so far, and is a bit better than 50% ground balls so far. He may be getting a bit lucky overall, as he seems prone to giving up a lot of line drives (24% this season) but he also hasn’t given up a homer so far. Stults may not be the answer to the Padres’ pitching woes, but right now he’s the hot hand, and that can be just as important at times. I wouldn’t look for Stults to continue his homerless streak for the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he managed to provide value for the Padres in one capacity or another for the season.

Cory Luebke got off to a hot enough start, and in the midst of building on his strong season last year, will be sitting out the rest of this season after reconstructive surgery on his pitching elbow. Luebke won’t be contributing any more for the Friars this season, but I’d look for him to come back strong and prepared to pitch next season.

Anthony Bass has eaten 58 & ⅓ innings so far for the Friars, and aside from an ugly start against the Mets in his most recent turn, Bass looks to have the ability to provide quite a bit of quality for the Padres. Bass has been able to strike out batters pretty effectively so far, with 55 Ks so far to his 21 walks. He’s keeping batters on top of pitches about ½ of the time, and he’s not getting hammered for line drives (18%) when they do lift one. Bass certainly earned himself a spot in the rotation after last year’s 48 & ⅓ inning audition, and so far hasn’t disappointed. Bass seems to be pretty solid all around, not putting a ton of men on base, and pitching smartly and efficiently more often than not. He’s still just a kid at 24 so some faltering isn’t unrealistic, but so far he’s looking to contribute in a big way for the Friars this season

Clayton Richard is currently the only contributing piece of the Friar’s trade of Jake Peavy and has been able to eat 64 & ⅓ innings so far though he’s done so in relatively unspectacular fashion. He’s been able to provide quality games but he’s far from an ace for this staff. Richard’s biggest value is going to come from his ability to eat innings, whether he’s battling or not he seems to be able to chew up innings without much issue. He’s providing an overall sustainable line, not striking out a large number of batters, but he’s keeping hitters on top of the ball more than ½ of the time, and he’s limiting line drives to 17%. He might be a bit better than his 4.76 ERA indicates, but he’s likely to show up and be any more than back of the rotation innings.

Edinson Volquez has put together 65 innings of slightly better than average ball. He’s not the ace that he’s been advertised to be but he is eating innings well enough. He’s striking batters out at a fair clip with 55 strikeouts so far, though he’s striking out about 1 less per 9 than last year, and 2 less than the year prior. With that he’s walking batters at an unreasonable clip, having walked 34 already, though that’s nothing new with Volquez. The one thing Volquez is doing well above all else is limiting home runs, which he most certainly should be doing, having only given up 1 round tripper at home so far and 3 total. He is garnering ground balls, though less than he has over the 2 most previous seasons. Volquez is also limiting line drives to 13% which is less than he has ever managed in the past, but not too far off of his last 2 seasons. Overall Volquez probably isn’t going to impress anyone more than he already has, and if he can’t get his walk rate under control his annually diminishing strikeout rate isn’t going to make him look better. He’s serviceable, and probably just a bit lucky, given that he’s usually good for about a homer per 9 and has been providing value at half that rate in Petco.

The Friars are worse than middle of the pack across the board, 10th of the 16 NL teams for staff ERA and despite being 2nd in stolen bases, are 15th in team batting average, on base percentage, and runs scored. They aren’t looking like a competitive team, and so far haven’t been this season. I’d say they’ll be sellers come the deadline, but I’m at a loss for what they’ll be able to sell that won’t further cripple their team for next season. They lack a power threat in their everyday lineup, and while Carlos Quentin might help out when healthy, their rotation, pen, and lineup are all subpar and that will assure them of a disappointing season again this year to give them their 4th sub .500 season in the last 5 years.