The AL wild card race is getting pretty serious down the stretch now, and we’re seeing that while the playoff picture is being painted at this point, we’re looking to see the season come down to the last game or two again this season. With that said, it appears that the last 15 or so games will make a good bit of difference. Of teams that are fighting for playoff berths outside of the AL Central (I have both already covered it, and both teams have worse records than the bulk of the wild card hopefuls).
The Athletics have looked great this season, pitching especially has carried the team. It appears in fact that they may have a second and possibly third MLB quality rotation sitting between AAA and AA. They do however have a very difficult schedule going forward. Of their last 15 games, they have 12 against teams with a winning record and only three against the Seattle Mariners. Contrasting that, the Angels have eight of their last 14 against winning teams and six games against those same Mariners. Those 3 additional games against a last place team could certainly make a notable difference for them trying to get into the postseason.
In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays are apt to have the hardest time getting into the postseason, not only because of their record at this point, but because they are going to finish the season with seven straight games against teams that are currently in position to make the postseason, four against the White Sox and three games against the Orioles to close out their season. The Orioles and the Yankees are currently tied for the division lead after the Yankees were rained out yesterday. Both teams have 3 games left against postseason contenders, and are otherwise facing teams fighting to avoid the basement in their divisions. They have a pretty equal schedule at this point, and it’s somewhat hard to give the edge to either team given the A’s and Tampa are both very strong teams, and it’s hard to point to one and declare them the “better” team given their respective schedules but I’d probably give a slight edge to the A’s, which would give the Yankees the marginally harder schedule.
There’s a lot going on over these last two weeks of the regular season. Given the difficulty of the A’s remaining schedule, the Angels may surprise us and overtake them for a postseason berth, the Orioles may be in the midst of making a worst to first switch, showing everyone yet again that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette are both still capable of turning a team around at a baseball moment’s notice. Without a real push, the Tigers will miss the postseason after making it to last year’s ALCS, and the AL Central will have a different division winner for the third year in a row.
Showing posts with label LA Angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LA Angels. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
What do you get for $240 million?
To fire your hitting coach!
OK, I'm sure someone else has made that joke. Lets look at the Angels' offense briefly while Foment continues his tour of each team's rotation. Aside: I plan on doing similar things to team's lineups during the summer when we have more data and I have more time available.
The Angels, as I've talked about before, have an abysmal offense. As of today, May 16, they are 12th out of 14 teams in the AL in OBP (301!!!), and 11th in slugging (379!!). These are hilariously horrible offensive numbers, especially for a team that has a DH. It's not all Pujols' fault, almost everyone seems to be pretty bad right now. So, this firing isn't all that surprising. However, before people blame AP for getting him fired, let's take a quick look back at the Angels' offense since their World Series win in 2002 (2003-2011).
2011- 313 OBP (11th)/ 402 SLG (8th), 86-76 (Pyth'd* 85-75)
2010- 311 (11th)/ 390 (10th), 80-82 (79-83)
2009- 350 (3rd)/ 441 (4th), 97-65 (92-70)
2008- 330 (11th)/ 413 (9th), 100-62 (88-74)
2007- 345 (3rd)/ 417 (9th), 94-68 (90-72)
2006- 334 (10th) / 425 (8th), 89-73 (84-78)
2005- 325 (9th) / (409) (9th), 95-67 (93-69)
2004- 341 (6th) / 429 (10th), 92-70 (91-71)
2003- 330 (8th) / 413 (9th), 77-85 (80-82)
*"Pyth" is short for "Pythagorean W-L", which is calculated based off of the number of runs you score against the number of runs you allow based on the Pythagorean theorem. Used to tell if a team is overachieving or not. Like that 08 Angels team that lost in 4 games to the Bosox in the ALDS, was really really lucky.
So, in those 9 seasons, the Angels have had an offense with an OBP above the median of 7th twice. TWICE. Slugging, they have been no higher than 4th, but usually around 8th or 9th. They are worse than usual this season, pretty close to those 2010 numbers, but maybe they should have done this shakeup after last year when they OBP'd less than notables such as Juan Pierre and Darin Erstad.
I don't know how much effect firing the hitting coach is going to have on them, but rest assured if Pujols turns it around it's because of his new hitting coach (which he had at least 3 in St Louis and never really had much of an issue) and NOT because he is one of the best hitters of all time. The same goes for all those other slumping below career level hitters. Most of them will probably progress to the norm. If they do, it will because they are major league hitters, not because of the hitting coach. Bank on it.
OK, I'm sure someone else has made that joke. Lets look at the Angels' offense briefly while Foment continues his tour of each team's rotation. Aside: I plan on doing similar things to team's lineups during the summer when we have more data and I have more time available.
The Angels, as I've talked about before, have an abysmal offense. As of today, May 16, they are 12th out of 14 teams in the AL in OBP (301!!!), and 11th in slugging (379!!). These are hilariously horrible offensive numbers, especially for a team that has a DH. It's not all Pujols' fault, almost everyone seems to be pretty bad right now. So, this firing isn't all that surprising. However, before people blame AP for getting him fired, let's take a quick look back at the Angels' offense since their World Series win in 2002 (2003-2011).
2011- 313 OBP (11th)/ 402 SLG (8th), 86-76 (Pyth'd* 85-75)
2010- 311 (11th)/ 390 (10th), 80-82 (79-83)
2009- 350 (3rd)/ 441 (4th), 97-65 (92-70)
2008- 330 (11th)/ 413 (9th), 100-62 (88-74)
2007- 345 (3rd)/ 417 (9th), 94-68 (90-72)
2006- 334 (10th) / 425 (8th), 89-73 (84-78)
2005- 325 (9th) / (409) (9th), 95-67 (93-69)
2004- 341 (6th) / 429 (10th), 92-70 (91-71)
2003- 330 (8th) / 413 (9th), 77-85 (80-82)
*"Pyth" is short for "Pythagorean W-L", which is calculated based off of the number of runs you score against the number of runs you allow based on the Pythagorean theorem. Used to tell if a team is overachieving or not. Like that 08 Angels team that lost in 4 games to the Bosox in the ALDS, was really really lucky.
So, in those 9 seasons, the Angels have had an offense with an OBP above the median of 7th twice. TWICE. Slugging, they have been no higher than 4th, but usually around 8th or 9th. They are worse than usual this season, pretty close to those 2010 numbers, but maybe they should have done this shakeup after last year when they OBP'd less than notables such as Juan Pierre and Darin Erstad.
I don't know how much effect firing the hitting coach is going to have on them, but rest assured if Pujols turns it around it's because of his new hitting coach (which he had at least 3 in St Louis and never really had much of an issue) and NOT because he is one of the best hitters of all time. The same goes for all those other slumping below career level hitters. Most of them will probably progress to the norm. If they do, it will because they are major league hitters, not because of the hitting coach. Bank on it.
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Dan Plesac joins the fold...
Watching MLB Tonight (again with these people being dumb!) and Greg Amsinger and Dan Plesac are talking about how the Angels have been shut out a lot this year. Amsinger asks Plesac how that could be. The correct answer? The team has a .299 OBP (12/14) and a SLG of .379 (11/14) entering play today. So they aren't getting guys on base and when they hit, they don't do so for much power. I mean, even David Eckstein could cobble together a 701 OPS in his career, they aren't even doing that well.
What does Plesac say is the reason? Because Albert Pujols is struggling! I mean, that's close, right?
As a Cardinals fan, I can understand why that would seem so. For 11 years, it seemed that as Pujols went, so did the Cardinals. But, really, that isn't true. If no one were getting on base besides Pujols, and no one were hitting for power besides Pujols, the Cards would have had poor offensive teams in the 2000s. Think of Adrian Gonzalez on the Padres all those years, big bat with no one around him. In the glory years of the Cardinals, they had guys like Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus (for a year), and a bunch of other guys hitting well around Pujols. Not, as Danny P claims because of Pujols, but because they were good hitters in any situation. Having that dominant bat helps, but if the rest of the Angels lineup continues to OBP under 300, Albert could put up Bonds-like numbers and they still wouldn't score many runs. Because, and I will type this in big letters so Plesac can understand it:
A BASEBALL TEAM IS MORE THAN ONE PLAYER!
I'm sleepy.
What does Plesac say is the reason? Because Albert Pujols is struggling! I mean, that's close, right?
As a Cardinals fan, I can understand why that would seem so. For 11 years, it seemed that as Pujols went, so did the Cardinals. But, really, that isn't true. If no one were getting on base besides Pujols, and no one were hitting for power besides Pujols, the Cards would have had poor offensive teams in the 2000s. Think of Adrian Gonzalez on the Padres all those years, big bat with no one around him. In the glory years of the Cardinals, they had guys like Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick, Troy Glaus (for a year), and a bunch of other guys hitting well around Pujols. Not, as Danny P claims because of Pujols, but because they were good hitters in any situation. Having that dominant bat helps, but if the rest of the Angels lineup continues to OBP under 300, Albert could put up Bonds-like numbers and they still wouldn't score many runs. Because, and I will type this in big letters so Plesac can understand it:
A BASEBALL TEAM IS MORE THAN ONE PLAYER!
I'm sleepy.
Monday, May 7, 2012
LA Angels of Anaheim - Looking at the Rotation
Continuing the AL West, the LA Angels of Anaheim have a very dominant rotation, and look after the general consensus being that they “Won” the offseason the halos looked poised to make a very strong run at the postseason this year. That has not so far been the case with LA sitting worse off in the standings than Seattle but to be totally fair, a lot of the league has been completely upside down so far. The angels are sending out no less than three legitimate aces every 5 days, and with that should by all means be amassing wins hand over fist but as of this writing they have a 12-17 record and all the pitching in the world doesn’t seem to be able to help them.
Jered Weaver has looked every bit the ace so far with 2 complete games and his first career no hitter so far this season. Weaver’s WHIP (.784) has been unreal so far, and I can’t see that being the case throughout the year and as his BABIP (.236) comes back closer to his career norm (.277), he’ll probably see the WHIP come back up to around his career average. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning so far, and has only walked 7 batters over his 44 & ⅔ innings. I don’t believe that Weaver’s going to quite be maintaining this pace, I feel his home run rate (1.2% of plate appearances) will eventually normalize, though for him that’s still only 2.6% of the time. His strikeout and walk rates might come back down to earth a bit as well, and that will really be all that would need to change to take this mind blowing start and leave Weaver with a typical ace season, but it’ll still be an excellent year for Weaver whether he comes back down a bit or not. It could be worth noting that Weaver’s ERA and WHIP have actually dropped every year since 2008, but really, how much lower is a guy gonna go than a 2.41 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP?
C.J. Wilson is the example of a reliever turned starter and has looked very good so far. His walk and strikeout rates look pretty close to last year having struck out 39 over 41 & ⅓ innings. Wilson already has 2 losses to his name this year, but they both have to be called tough luck losses because he’s thrown nothing but quality starts this year. Wilson has actually been right on the money with his groundball/flyball split so far though he’s been lucky in not giving up extra bases, and his BABIP (.227) is a bit lower than his career (.286) they might come up a bit as the season wears on but overall Wilson looks like he’ll have another stellar year having come out of the gate hot.
Dan Haren has been very good to start the year, despite having started the year with two short outings, he really only got beat up in his first start and has looked pretty darn good since. Haren’s getting his strikeouts (35) and has only given up 7 walks over his first 39 & ⅓ innings. He’s given up 5 homers so far and that could likely be attributed to his slightly higher flyball rate this year than he has shown over his career. I’d be more concerned with that if he weren’t still striking batters out and forcing popups. Haren’s not looking bad by any stretch of the imagination, and is an excellent option for the Halos to send out every 5th day.
Ervin Santana has looked rough this year, having given up 11 home runs so far. Overall there’s very little pointing to the relative ineffectiveness Santana’s displayed so far (albeit most of it was over the first 4 starts, the last two have been better). He’s striking out batters at about the same rate as he always has(6.8 per 9 vs 7.2 for his career) and isn’t walking any more batters than usual either (2.8 per 9 vs 2.9 for his career). He’s actually giving up fewer line drives (13%) than usual(17% for his career) but he’s been absolutely thwarted by the long ball so far. Normally the adage is that homers come in bunches for hitters, but it may be the case so far that Santana’s giving up a lot early, and that could settle down as the year continues. I don’t necessarily look for Santana to be an ace this year, his career has been up and down, and this might just be an off year for him. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in Santana flipping a switch and being lights out like last year, but he may not be too far off from putting up some okay numbers as a number 4 or 5 starter.
Jerome Williams came up late last year and looked better than he had at any other point in his career. That has carried right into the start of this year so far. After a somewhat auspicious start giving up 5 runs in less than 3 innings, Williams has made it into the 6th in all of the 4 starts he’s made since, all of which have been quality starts. Williams has been striking out batters (23) reasonably well so far and has only walked 9 in his first 32 innings of work this season. It’s hard to use Williams’ career numbers to judge him since prior to last year he spent 2 years in the minors (and one in Taiwan) before making to back up to the show. Williams seems to have all but reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher since coming back up, and by limiting line drives and keeping the ball on the ground Williams looks to be poised to keep himself in the majors through the season. While he’s only given up 1 home run so far I wouldn’t exactly be shocked to see that change some over the course of the year, but Williams may have found what works for him and could be a very real member of this pitching staff going forward.
As the Angels get more acquainted with one another and their batting order begins clicking on all cylinders, this is going to become a very real playoff contender, even if that doesn’t necessarily happen this year.
Jered Weaver has looked every bit the ace so far with 2 complete games and his first career no hitter so far this season. Weaver’s WHIP (.784) has been unreal so far, and I can’t see that being the case throughout the year and as his BABIP (.236) comes back closer to his career norm (.277), he’ll probably see the WHIP come back up to around his career average. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning so far, and has only walked 7 batters over his 44 & ⅔ innings. I don’t believe that Weaver’s going to quite be maintaining this pace, I feel his home run rate (1.2% of plate appearances) will eventually normalize, though for him that’s still only 2.6% of the time. His strikeout and walk rates might come back down to earth a bit as well, and that will really be all that would need to change to take this mind blowing start and leave Weaver with a typical ace season, but it’ll still be an excellent year for Weaver whether he comes back down a bit or not. It could be worth noting that Weaver’s ERA and WHIP have actually dropped every year since 2008, but really, how much lower is a guy gonna go than a 2.41 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP?
C.J. Wilson is the example of a reliever turned starter and has looked very good so far. His walk and strikeout rates look pretty close to last year having struck out 39 over 41 & ⅓ innings. Wilson already has 2 losses to his name this year, but they both have to be called tough luck losses because he’s thrown nothing but quality starts this year. Wilson has actually been right on the money with his groundball/flyball split so far though he’s been lucky in not giving up extra bases, and his BABIP (.227) is a bit lower than his career (.286) they might come up a bit as the season wears on but overall Wilson looks like he’ll have another stellar year having come out of the gate hot.
Dan Haren has been very good to start the year, despite having started the year with two short outings, he really only got beat up in his first start and has looked pretty darn good since. Haren’s getting his strikeouts (35) and has only given up 7 walks over his first 39 & ⅓ innings. He’s given up 5 homers so far and that could likely be attributed to his slightly higher flyball rate this year than he has shown over his career. I’d be more concerned with that if he weren’t still striking batters out and forcing popups. Haren’s not looking bad by any stretch of the imagination, and is an excellent option for the Halos to send out every 5th day.
Ervin Santana has looked rough this year, having given up 11 home runs so far. Overall there’s very little pointing to the relative ineffectiveness Santana’s displayed so far (albeit most of it was over the first 4 starts, the last two have been better). He’s striking out batters at about the same rate as he always has(6.8 per 9 vs 7.2 for his career) and isn’t walking any more batters than usual either (2.8 per 9 vs 2.9 for his career). He’s actually giving up fewer line drives (13%) than usual(17% for his career) but he’s been absolutely thwarted by the long ball so far. Normally the adage is that homers come in bunches for hitters, but it may be the case so far that Santana’s giving up a lot early, and that could settle down as the year continues. I don’t necessarily look for Santana to be an ace this year, his career has been up and down, and this might just be an off year for him. I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in Santana flipping a switch and being lights out like last year, but he may not be too far off from putting up some okay numbers as a number 4 or 5 starter.
Jerome Williams came up late last year and looked better than he had at any other point in his career. That has carried right into the start of this year so far. After a somewhat auspicious start giving up 5 runs in less than 3 innings, Williams has made it into the 6th in all of the 4 starts he’s made since, all of which have been quality starts. Williams has been striking out batters (23) reasonably well so far and has only walked 9 in his first 32 innings of work this season. It’s hard to use Williams’ career numbers to judge him since prior to last year he spent 2 years in the minors (and one in Taiwan) before making to back up to the show. Williams seems to have all but reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher since coming back up, and by limiting line drives and keeping the ball on the ground Williams looks to be poised to keep himself in the majors through the season. While he’s only given up 1 home run so far I wouldn’t exactly be shocked to see that change some over the course of the year, but Williams may have found what works for him and could be a very real member of this pitching staff going forward.
As the Angels get more acquainted with one another and their batting order begins clicking on all cylinders, this is going to become a very real playoff contender, even if that doesn’t necessarily happen this year.
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