Pre-game tonight the Cardinals announcers were praising how well Jeff Suppan is doing. Come on people, look into this stuff before pontificating!
I can’t believe I live in a world where this stuff happens. First Volquez, now Jeff Suppan. Jeff Suppan, entering tonight’s game, has an ERA of 3.00. His BB/9 is virtually the same to his career numbers. His K/9 is a wonderfully funny 1.7. Career wise he K’s about 5 per 9 innings, so that may come up some. Like Volquez, his HR rate is down massively. 1.2 career, 0.4 this year. That’s coming up. A lot. And I’m not buying the Petco excuse for him. His career number has been pretty constant whether pitching in a pitcher’s haven (like Busch) or in a hitter’s haven (like Miller Park), so I guarantee that’s coming up. A lot. And soon.
Also, like Volquez, his BABIP is incredibly low. In his career, he is a .301 (which is actually about average). This year? .253. Yeah, that ain’t keeping. He will come back down and be the good ol’ 4.5-4.8 ERA Jeff Suppan. When? Well the Cards touched him up for 3 in the first inning, so I’d say by the end of June we’ll be seeing the really real Jeff Suppan shine through.
I loved Suppan when he was a Cardinal (which, if you haven’t noticed yet, there are very few I don’t). Never thought he was more than an average pitcher, and overperforming in the 2006 NLCS will always be one of my favorite baseball memories. Seeing him in Game 7 (greatest NLCS game in history) get Jose Valentin to strike out and Endy Chavez to pop up to center with the bases loaded after Chavez made that catch was incredible. In 15 innings in that series he gave up 1 earned run (first inning of Game 7), 5 hits and 6 walks. You were amazing. I thank you for that. But, really, you sorta suck now.
Showing posts with label Padres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Padres. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
Crashing down to Earth at a ballpark near you this summer...
Edinson Volquez.
Show of hands, how many people read that in the movie trailer guy's voice?
In any case:
Through his 9 starts this year, Edinson Volquez has thrown 53 1/3 innings and allowed 18 earned runs (21 total), at least according to Baseball-reference.com. MLB.com says that in the same time he’s allowed 20 earned runs and 21 runs total. Let's stick with BR for now, since they have ERA+ calculated already. Normally his ERA (3.04) would equate to an ERA+ of 123. His ERA+ pitching in Petco? 115. Still a decent number, but enough difference to notice. He’s really pitching 8% worse than it looks because of Petco.
And that brings us to the diatribe for today. That ERA is on its way up. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which uses the things a pitcher can control the most, K’s BB’s and HR’s, to estimate what his ERA should be) is 3.37, and his xFIP (FIP calculated with league average HR rates) is 3.83. Once he makes a few more road starts and is outside of Petco, those HR rates (0.51 this year, 1.01 career) will start to normalize. When that happens, he’ll give up more runs.
It’s amazing me that his ERA is as low as it is, since his K/9 is roughly the same as his career and his BB/9 is also roughly the same. Big difference is his BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play-measures the frequency of hits that remain in the park and stays pretty constant over a career) is about 30 points lower than usual. I don’t know if he’s getting better defense (Cinnci usually had some good defenders) now in San Diego so I think that his BABIP is going to return to normal which will also cause him to give up more runs because he’ll be giving up more hits. That WHIP is still mediocre (1.31) and again is causing me to really think that he’ll be coming down to Earth real soon. I’d be surprised if he’s still pitching this “well” by the All-Star Break.
If he doesn't, Foment will pay everyone here $150.
Show of hands, how many people read that in the movie trailer guy's voice?
In any case:
Through his 9 starts this year, Edinson Volquez has thrown 53 1/3 innings and allowed 18 earned runs (21 total), at least according to Baseball-reference.com. MLB.com says that in the same time he’s allowed 20 earned runs and 21 runs total. Let's stick with BR for now, since they have ERA+ calculated already. Normally his ERA (3.04) would equate to an ERA+ of 123. His ERA+ pitching in Petco? 115. Still a decent number, but enough difference to notice. He’s really pitching 8% worse than it looks because of Petco.
And that brings us to the diatribe for today. That ERA is on its way up. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which uses the things a pitcher can control the most, K’s BB’s and HR’s, to estimate what his ERA should be) is 3.37, and his xFIP (FIP calculated with league average HR rates) is 3.83. Once he makes a few more road starts and is outside of Petco, those HR rates (0.51 this year, 1.01 career) will start to normalize. When that happens, he’ll give up more runs.
It’s amazing me that his ERA is as low as it is, since his K/9 is roughly the same as his career and his BB/9 is also roughly the same. Big difference is his BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play-measures the frequency of hits that remain in the park and stays pretty constant over a career) is about 30 points lower than usual. I don’t know if he’s getting better defense (Cinnci usually had some good defenders) now in San Diego so I think that his BABIP is going to return to normal which will also cause him to give up more runs because he’ll be giving up more hits. That WHIP is still mediocre (1.31) and again is causing me to really think that he’ll be coming down to Earth real soon. I’d be surprised if he’s still pitching this “well” by the All-Star Break.
If he doesn't, Foment will pay everyone here $150.
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