Matt Garza: What's He Really Worth?

Analyzing Matt Garza’s value as a pitcher is rather easy, He’s very reliable, probably not an ace but a respectable 2 or 3 in the NL and a solid 3 in most AL clubs. He’s an innings eater who has proved successful in both leagues and in tough divisions. Garza’s trade value has been hit twofold over the past month. His triceps issue, which is now being called a stress reaction in his pitching elbow, that made him nigh untradeable at the deadline impacted value for obvious reasons, but also because of that he will be a 1 year rental if traded in the offseason. If Garza goes unclaimed on waivers and is eligible for a late season trade this year, that’s a different situation all together. I will be forthright and say it, no matter how much they talk about Garza staying in Chicago I can’t imagine it. I can’t see him wanting to sign a 3+ year contract, especially just going into his prime years, with one of the worst teams in baseball. Garza’s true value to the Cubs has to be, without a doubt, in being traded for controllable assets. Resigning Garza would take an overpay that Cubs brass is all too familiar with (Still loving that Carlos Zambrano deal I’m sure).

Garza is a very solid pitcher, and even on a 1 year contract could be the difference for a team with a shaky rotation. Of course being in the last year of arbitration will make it a bit trickier for any pursuing team to negotiate long term with Garza. That said, it can certainly be done, they’d have a whole year to work out a deal assuming Garza wanted to stay there and was content to avoid free agency. The reality that Garza may not play again until next season will certainly put a hitch in any trade talks the Cubs may have between now and then, sure a team may be willing to gamble on Garza, but will they really be willing to pay full price for potentially damaged goods? So there are really only 2 options for Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein.

Their best hope is that Garza is able to return before the end of the season and give him a chance to showcase his talents again before spring training. This would be ideal for Chicago, he would be the entire veteran presence in their rotation, and could help some of their young pitchers  round into form on their currently rather accelerated schedules. The Cubbies would also have the most flexibility in how/when to deal Garza, if they don’t like any of the offseason offers, they will wait until someone’s desperate. This could likely net the Cubs a few legitimately interesting prospects, though obviously with Garza’s salary likely in excess of $10 million after this season, interest in him may be hurt by the free agent market, if teams look at him as a one year rental, they may see equally effective options available on one and 2 year contracts at similar/lower costs. (Hiroki Kuroda would be a great example for this year). His fate will be decided by where pitchers like Ervin Santana, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Dempster, and (to a lesser extent) Erik Bedard land, and how much they’re being paid. Now, most of these pitchers are older than Garza, and at least half of them will be seeking multi year deals but the strongest suitors for Garza will undoubtedly be teams that miss out on the above mentioned free agents and are willing to part with some organizational depth to stay in the playoff hunt. Just about every team in playoff contention right now sans maybe the Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, and the LA Angels. More likely than not the Cubbies will be able to get a fair haul for their current ace. Obviously the injury will factor in somewhat in any offer that the Cubs receive, but there’s still a respectable number of potential suitors, and if Hoyer and Epstein play their cards right, someone is sure to overpay for a year of Garza.

Of course, the arm could remain a nagging issue throughout the rest of the regular season. This would leave the Cubs with looking at a mid-season trade to get any real return on Garza. There is the possibility that they could make him a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t get them any closer to competing if he leaves and if it gets that far, he may be willing to take the 1 year contract to further build his value at 29 and still reach free agency before he’s 30. Given that he’d be a pure rental, the return would surely be lesser than it could have been this year, regardless of what his health status is at the trade deadline. He will still potentially net the Cubs a single top 5 (within a given organization) prospect but not nearly what he was worth to most clubs at the deadline this year.

Overall the return for Garza is tied to both his health and performance, he will with near certainty be traded by next year’s deadline, whether Theo & Co. are able to get a significant haul however remains to be seen. Many teams are moving to valuing their farms more now than in the recent past which will clearly work against the Cubs, but given the ever present need for good pitching in a pennant race, I think Garza will net the Cubs a pair of prospects, probably one farther along in his development but with a lower ceiling, or whose development has stalled a bit, and a high ceiling player in A ball, maybe ready to be moved to AA.

Where Oh Where Will Youk Go?

The market for Kevin Youkilis is kind of hard to read. I’ve read a handful of sensible trade options, and an overwhelming number of incredibly stupid ideas. Let’s sort this out shall we? There are 3 things that any team looking to acquire Youk, or a player in a comparable position, need. For this exercise we’re assuming that the Red Sox consider themselves in contention eliminating the entire AL East off the bat regardless of the package they offer. An interested team will need:

• to have a reason to upgrade 3rd or 1st base, eliminating the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, Cardinals, and the Phillies.
• to currently be in legitimate contention, meaning that Milwaukee isn’t a legitimate option, the Mariners, Oakland, the Cubbies, Royals, Twins, Houston, and the Padres are all very likely out as well.
• to be able to give the Sox something they want at the major league level without hurting themselves significantly. That eliminates Cincinnati, the White Sox, Indians, Mets, and the Dodgers (though some of you will disagree).

This leaves the Tigers, Angels, Marlins, Pirates, Giants, and D-Backs. Every one of these teams has a reasonably solid to very strong rotation and the depth to allow giving up a pitcher to not crush them. So of 29 potential destinations we’re left with 6 legitimate landing spots for Youk. It’s now as much about how much the team is willing to give up for the 33 year old corner infielder. He certainly can help on either side of the infield, and with a team option for next year he could well be more than a rental if an acquiring team views him as worth 12 million for next season (1 mil buyout or 13 mil option).

I’d be surprised to see a team giving up much more than a mid rotation starter, a solid No. 3 or a very good No. 4 starter, though a solid 4 and a prospect of some kind might be an equally valid option given the current rotation situation in Boston.

• Detroit isn’t looking as impressive this year as they have in the past. They do have starters worth some serious value, Rick Porcello or Max Scherzer could be sent to Boston for Youk. While Detroit does have Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder clogging up the corner infield slots, they could potentially move Delmon Young to just about anywhere else for a potentially more useful Youk who would give the duo a bit more protection in the lineup and the ability to give either one a ½ day off without having to put a lame duck utility infielder in their place.
• The Angels could easily swap Ervin Santana who’s having a down year in a near equal contract swap, giving the Red Sox a warm body to put in the rotation with the ability to be a top flight starter, despite his not showing it this season. The Angels probably have more pressing needs than upgrading at 3B, so this isn’t the most likely scenario.
• The Marlins could give up someone like Ricky Nolasco who’s not a bad performer per se but hasn’t been top flight either. They have Chad Gaudin in their system and could easily use him in their rotation if they feel that Josh Johnson will be able to bounce back and contribute in the postseason. They don’t have the strongest need for Youk, but could put Logan Morrison back in the outfield to give the team a shot in the arm.
• The Buccos could give Erik Bedard back to the Red Sox, maybe the Sox would push for Brad Lincoln, or possibly A.J. Burnett, but how strongly they feel they can compete remains to be seen. I don’t know if the Sox would bite for a return trip from Bedard or if they feel Burnett could hold up in Boston any better than he did in NY, but player value isn’t all that far off. The Pirates may not feel that they’ll be capable of winning the division with Youk and balk at the idea, but they’re certainly an option until proven otherwise.
• The D-backs aren’t necessarily “in it” this year but their division appears to be quite winnable with both teams above them in the standings having significant holes.That said, being below .500 at the moment might scare them away from giving up any pitchers with long term controllability or value but they have a below average offense and could possibly give up an arm that they don’t expect to keep around. Joe Saunders makes the most sense given his overall value is slightly above average at the moment but he doesn’t exactly have a history of ace quality work. they’re not necessarily in dire need of a corner infielder, but they could use an upgrade at 3rd and allow Ryan Roberts to fill in as a primary backup at 2nd, 3rd, and left.
• The Giants may/may not need help in the corners. Brandon Belt is getting on base well though his lack of power may not be helping him out much. Joaquin Arias has been underwhelming in Pablo Sandoval’s stead and there are questions as to when Sandoval will return. The Giants could move someone like Barry Zito who’s been a long term thorn in their side despite how well he’s pitching at the moment. I doubt that they would make a knee jerk move like sending Tim Lincecum anywhere due to his pedigree.

I’m not saying these are all perfect deals, but each team could potentially benefit from Boston’s desire to move a 12 million dollar commitment who’s got nowhere to play for the team. They don’t have the leverage that a team that’s totally out of contention would have to just hold onto their player for the offseason to net a higher ransom. They’re trying to win now, and being in a close division a solid middle of the rotation starter would go a long way for them. Certainly the White Sox or the Dodgers could make a play for him but I feel like it would be quite the uphill battle for them to do so given the quality of their rotations. The White Sox don’t have the depth to replace some of their underperformers, and someone like Aaron Harang wouldn’t be desirable in Boston. Of the options I’ve deemed “legitimate”  I’m most intrigued by the idea of Detroit making a play for an impact bat, though they may look to replace someone like Ryan Raburn at 2B with someone who has stronger on base skills and potentially some speed. More likely to me would be the D-Backs or possibly the Marlins. This is all certainly conjecture, Ben Cherington decides that he’d rather look to next year or the year after he may look for a much more prospect heavy return which would bring teams without a ton of rotation depth back into the picture.