Matt Garza: What's He Really Worth?

Analyzing Matt Garza’s value as a pitcher is rather easy, He’s very reliable, probably not an ace but a respectable 2 or 3 in the NL and a solid 3 in most AL clubs. He’s an innings eater who has proved successful in both leagues and in tough divisions. Garza’s trade value has been hit twofold over the past month. His triceps issue, which is now being called a stress reaction in his pitching elbow, that made him nigh untradeable at the deadline impacted value for obvious reasons, but also because of that he will be a 1 year rental if traded in the offseason. If Garza goes unclaimed on waivers and is eligible for a late season trade this year, that’s a different situation all together. I will be forthright and say it, no matter how much they talk about Garza staying in Chicago I can’t imagine it. I can’t see him wanting to sign a 3+ year contract, especially just going into his prime years, with one of the worst teams in baseball. Garza’s true value to the Cubs has to be, without a doubt, in being traded for controllable assets. Resigning Garza would take an overpay that Cubs brass is all too familiar with (Still loving that Carlos Zambrano deal I’m sure).

Garza is a very solid pitcher, and even on a 1 year contract could be the difference for a team with a shaky rotation. Of course being in the last year of arbitration will make it a bit trickier for any pursuing team to negotiate long term with Garza. That said, it can certainly be done, they’d have a whole year to work out a deal assuming Garza wanted to stay there and was content to avoid free agency. The reality that Garza may not play again until next season will certainly put a hitch in any trade talks the Cubs may have between now and then, sure a team may be willing to gamble on Garza, but will they really be willing to pay full price for potentially damaged goods? So there are really only 2 options for Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein.

Their best hope is that Garza is able to return before the end of the season and give him a chance to showcase his talents again before spring training. This would be ideal for Chicago, he would be the entire veteran presence in their rotation, and could help some of their young pitchers  round into form on their currently rather accelerated schedules. The Cubbies would also have the most flexibility in how/when to deal Garza, if they don’t like any of the offseason offers, they will wait until someone’s desperate. This could likely net the Cubs a few legitimately interesting prospects, though obviously with Garza’s salary likely in excess of $10 million after this season, interest in him may be hurt by the free agent market, if teams look at him as a one year rental, they may see equally effective options available on one and 2 year contracts at similar/lower costs. (Hiroki Kuroda would be a great example for this year). His fate will be decided by where pitchers like Ervin Santana, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Dempster, and (to a lesser extent) Erik Bedard land, and how much they’re being paid. Now, most of these pitchers are older than Garza, and at least half of them will be seeking multi year deals but the strongest suitors for Garza will undoubtedly be teams that miss out on the above mentioned free agents and are willing to part with some organizational depth to stay in the playoff hunt. Just about every team in playoff contention right now sans maybe the Washington Nationals, Tampa Bay Rays, and the LA Angels. More likely than not the Cubbies will be able to get a fair haul for their current ace. Obviously the injury will factor in somewhat in any offer that the Cubs receive, but there’s still a respectable number of potential suitors, and if Hoyer and Epstein play their cards right, someone is sure to overpay for a year of Garza.

Of course, the arm could remain a nagging issue throughout the rest of the regular season. This would leave the Cubs with looking at a mid-season trade to get any real return on Garza. There is the possibility that they could make him a qualifying offer, but that doesn’t get them any closer to competing if he leaves and if it gets that far, he may be willing to take the 1 year contract to further build his value at 29 and still reach free agency before he’s 30. Given that he’d be a pure rental, the return would surely be lesser than it could have been this year, regardless of what his health status is at the trade deadline. He will still potentially net the Cubs a single top 5 (within a given organization) prospect but not nearly what he was worth to most clubs at the deadline this year.

Overall the return for Garza is tied to both his health and performance, he will with near certainty be traded by next year’s deadline, whether Theo & Co. are able to get a significant haul however remains to be seen. Many teams are moving to valuing their farms more now than in the recent past which will clearly work against the Cubs, but given the ever present need for good pitching in a pennant race, I think Garza will net the Cubs a pair of prospects, probably one farther along in his development but with a lower ceiling, or whose development has stalled a bit, and a high ceiling player in A ball, maybe ready to be moved to AA.

Yankees Trade Needs, Wants, and Realities

It’s been a while, and we’ve discussed the trade market in general, and a few specific trade possibilities, but I’mma go ahead and look at the Yankees needs and wants. I have to stress my bias here, if these are less than perfectly logical trades, so be it, I have my allegiances, and I’m being upfront about them. It’s pretty common amongst Yankees fans to overvalue our farm system, so I’ll try to stray away from that, and it’s been said repeatedly that we as a fanbase feel entitled to winning, entitled to having the best of everything, no matter the cost.

I’m going to assume that what Brian Cashman says means more than placating the media, and that he doesn’t want to A) cripple the farm system or B) put the team in a position to be over the luxury tax threshold in 2014. So, knowing all that there are a few areas of “need” which is a term I’m forced to use loosely given that the team is in first place and owns the best record in baseball. In the short term, the yanks need a third baseman. No matter how much I like Eric Chavez, he’s a great backup, solid defense, productive bat, some power, but with all that comes the fragility that kept him from being a superstar. Behind him there’s Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, and Ramiro Pena within the organization, all offering something but not the ability to lessen the blow of a month+ without Alex Rodriguez. There’s room to upgrade at catcher as well, I like Russell Martin and I want him to start performing like he’s able to, but right now he’s calling a good game, but he’s essentially a guaranteed out against righties.There’s also room to upgrade the bullpen in light of Mariano Rivera’s injury and the general (Insert handedness) One Out GuY nature of the bulk of the ‘pen. 4 days ago I would have likely argued that adding an outfielder would have been beneficial as well, but after trading D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar for Ichiro Suzuki I think that’s reasonably well covered, though his bat may not be what it once was, he still has speed, and plays great defense, he’s more or less Brett Gardner with a modified howitzer for an arm (A Futurama reference, in a sports blog, does anyone else appreciate this?) at this point in his career.

the third base market is fairly thin, my knee jerk reaction was to say Ty Wigginton, he’s versatile, right handed, and has some power, but the Phillies have already shot that one down. Hanley Ramirez would have also been an option, but another prima donna in New York might be a bit much. Chase Headley is an option, in that he’s both good, and available, as well Aramis Ramirez is a possible fit. The yanks don’t need a long term third baseman, they are, for better or worse, A-rod is under contract for several more years, and making him a full time DH and part time fielder just doesn’t seem likely at the moment. so anyone like Headley or Ramirez would likely be acquired with trading them after the season in mind. Strategically, Headley could be a great fit, he’s young, affordable, has shown moderate power in the spacious Petco park, and plays solid defense. The biggest draw to getting, then flipping Headley would be the ability to potentially acquire a cost controllable pitcher for the 28 year old. Prying Headley away from the Padres would be a tricky proposition given the state of the Yankees farm system. Likely they would have to give up a number of prospects of some value, and at least one of the “can’t miss” prospects like Mason Williams, Manny Banuelos, or Dellin Betances would be part of that package.

As for catchers, the goal wouldn’t be to replace Martin, but to provide him a better platoon partner than Chris Stewart, though Francisco Cervelli can do that just fine. Catchers are tricky to trade mid-season, they have to build a rapport with the pitchers they work with, need to know not only what they like to throw, but how they’re comfortable operating. It’s a tall order to join a team in the midst of a pennant race, remain productive at the plate, and learn to effectively handle no less than 11 different pitchers. There are certainly good catchers on bad teams, though they all come with some caveats. while Joe Mauer would be a great catcher to acquire, he’s solid behind the plate, and he’s got a great bat for a catcher he did miss ½ of last year with an injury, and he is on a long term contract, so if his oversized (for a catcher) frame starts to break down, the yanks would be saddled with that. Knowing all of these things, there’s also no particular indication that Mauer is on the trading block, though the yanks could potentially deal some of their minor league pitching talent to entice the Twins who’ve got slightly less than no pitching at the major league level. Kansas City could potentially be enticed into giving up Salvador Perez, though overpaying for an unproven talent would be a near certainty, if the trade panned out, Perez would be a solid cost controlled addition. There is however no indication that he’s available, nor that at 6’3” he’ll be able to stay at catcher for his whole career. The Brew crew has two fairly productive, controllable catchers in Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonaldo, and could potentially be talked into letting one of them leave. John Jaso could also be available at the right price given that he’s expendable with both Miguel Olivo and Jesus Montero in the fray, though the Mariners may prefer to keep Jaso with an eye to Montero’s future as a catcher being questioned. It has been mentioned that Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies would be a good fit, and given that they’re selling off pieces and Ruiz has an expiring contract I tend to agree, though for less than 1 year of Ruiz who has been tearing the cover off the ball this year the yanks would likely pay a king’s ransom. There just might not really be room to upgrade at catcher aside from letting Cervelli get his hacks in rather than stewart. He’s not exactly going to dominate pitching in the major leagues, but he calls a good game, he can hit a little, and having him spell Martin for 2 out of every 5 might just help Martin get his head on straight and start producing at the plate.

The market for relief pitching is pretty grim, most of the teams that are out of contention have either very young bullpens or very bad bullpens, in the former case the team trying to get a reliever is likely to have to give up a minor leaguer with some serious potential, and in the latter case, why bother? With that said, I tend to like pitchers leaving Colorado, if you can pitch effectively there, you can pitch effectively anywhere. You’re pitching in one of the most offensively friendly stadiums in the sport, and many breaking pitches don’t break as well there as they do closer to sea level. I’d be interested in Matt Belisle or Josh Roenicke if either is available, and failing that Shawn Camp is a relatively appealing option in his own right. The question is now, what are they worth? Roenicke is probably the toughest to acquire, though the Rox also say they’re not interested in moving Belisle either. I’d suspect that to get anyone really worth having, the yankees would have to give up something valuable from the farm, I’d be somewhat inclined to wait this one out, I think that Joba Chamberlain’s eventual return, and the prospect of Mariano Rivera being ready to pitch again before the postseason (nevermind) will be enough of a shot in the arm for the ‘pen, especially if David Phelps can keep producing like he has been.

Overall, I think that while a third baseman might be a viable trade option, I don’t know that if I were in Brian Cashman’s shoes I’d be too thrilled with what’s available. The Catching market is not friendly, everyone that’s an upgrade over Martin/Stewart is going to be cost prohibitive. I only really see Shawn Camp as an option as far as relief pitchers go unless someone begins shopping their closer at a discount price ASAP. I don’t personally believe that Cashman is interested in overpaying for anything short of greatness, and while the Montero for Michael Pineda deal hasn’t panned out so far, I seriously doubt that Cashman is in the habit of trading big value for very little return, and with that in mind I don’t really see any big moves for the Yankees between now and the deadline.

Justin Upton: Does He Fit For The Mets?

The Diamondbacks have grown tired of Justin Upton’s attitude and his behavior, so much so that they have now resolved to potentially trade him for some package of either high ranking prospects or “major league ready” talent. The Pirates have been linked to both Upton and Carlos Quentin. The Pirates are certainly a viable destination for either player, but they may not be a solid participant in the Upton sweepstakes, they just don’t have the pieces that Arizona is looking for. Of course they could always try to overwhelm the D-Backs with a large pack of prospects, but there are other teams who could use a right handed outfielder with power and “speed” (8 caught stealing in 18 attempts isn’t exactly going to impress me). 

One of our local sports talk personalities Bruce Jacobs, who is openly a Mets fan proposed the idea of trading a package consisting of Lucas Duda, one of Kirk Nieuwenhuis (good lord was that hard to spell) or Jordany Valdespin, and a mid tier prospect largely of the D-back’s choosing. I don’t think this is an overwhelmingly poor offer on Jacobs’ part. I think that it would be giving up too much for the return, especially if Nieuwenhuis were involved. A great deal of Jacobs’ argument centered around the notion that the Mets need a righty power hitter, and thus their glut of lefty bats could be used to their advantage. Now, much more than looking for offense, the Mets need bullpen help, but regardless of a “needs vs. wants” argument I think that this would be an overpay, potentially a necessary one if they are dead set on prying Upton away from the D-backs and there are other serious suitors, but at the moment it appears like that should be the absolute high water mark for an offer. Perhaps more fitting would be Valdespin and 2 prospects allowing the Mets to flip Ike Davis for a reliever and move Duda to first. Slight decrease in power overall, without sacrificing two batters who are 20-30 homer threats under team control for quite a while.

I feel like Upton’s value is being played up too greatly, he has speed on some level, but either his speed is diminishing already at 24 years old, or he’s not making smart baserunning decisions. He has 20-25 home run power, not 30. His high water mark is 31 homers last season in a modestly hitter friendly home park, moving to Citi field would suck a lot of that power away in a hurry, closer fences or not. I understand a 20-20 hitter is a valuable commodity, but he’s also being touted as an excellent defender, which depending on the metrics you put stock in could be seen as an absolute fabrication or complete truth. Upton’s trade value is probably higher than someone like Nick Swisher’s, but defensively he is (again metric dependent) only marginally better than Swish in right and doesn’t present the same kind of threat at the plate that Swish does. Arguably, he may continue to get stronger over the next few years, possibly becoming a 30 hr threat, but giving up two average outfielders with 15 + homer power or one with power and one with what appears to be very good baserunning acumen on top of a prospect just seems like too much of an overpay after looking things over, especially in light of the Mets actual needs in the bullpen.

As an aside, whoever acquires Justin at the deadline should investigate what BJ will cost in free agency after the season. Having the Upton brothers on the same team would (potentially) elevate them both. They have both been criticized for taking plays off in the field, for making bonehead mistakes on the basepaths, but what of an outfield with both BJ Upton in center and Justin in right? With that much speed you may be able to put David Ortiz in left and still have league average outfield defense.


Overall, could the Mets pull off the trade? Sure. Would it help enough to bother? Probably not this year.

What Can The Rox Do With Jeremy Guthrie?

The Rockies have decided to stake out suitors for their control challenged and homer prone right hander. I am of course referring to Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie was an “ace” in Baltimore for the past 5 years, but that was more by default than it was due to incredible performance. When Dan Duquette decided to pull the trigger and send Guthrie to Colorado he got back a younger starter in Jason Hammel and a solid reliever in Matt Lindstrom. So far both of those two are putting together excellent years, Guthrie at his best would be envious of Hammel’s season so far. Guthrie’s big pitch has always been a curveball, which doesn’t exactly break right in Colorado, but recently he has been bad across the board, maybe the bad home games have shaken his confidence and he’s trying to find a new pitch to complement his fastball.

The Rox aren’t looking to get a great return on their investment in Guthrie, who is making a bit over 8 million this year and will be going to arbitration for the final time at season’s end. He’s a better pitcher than he has appeared over the course of his career, and if he ended up in a spacious home park, Guthrie might well be able to turn this season around. He’s not likely to turn around like A.J. Burnett has this season, but he’s certainly capable of putting up better numbers in a different park. The biggest question I would have is really, who is looking for a buy low pitcher on a 1 year contract who at his best is going to provide No. 2 pitcher stats, at his worst, couldn’t be buried far enough down the list in the bullpen.

The Blue Jays have been tied to Guthrie early on, but what they’d be trying to do with him is unclear. I suppose there could be something to be said about having a veteran in the rotation, but it feels like they would be taking on salary to waive the white flag and say that they are content to miss the playoffs yet again this year. They are all of 3 games out of playoff contention at the moment, and could with a little boost here or there make a run at one of the wildcard spots, but considering Guthrie’s performance so far this season, and his track record he’s not liable to be an upgrade anywhere for the club.

I think that if any teams in contention were looking to sure up their rotation without making any major impact on their farm system it would be more likely to see Guthrie headed to Cincinnati or making a return to the Indians. I don’t know that many teams at the bottom of their respective divisions would really be interested in giving up a prospect (mid to low tier or otherwise) to receive a pitcher who can’t promise to deliver anything significant. Guthrie isn’t as bad as he’s been this year, and he’d certainly be a candidate for a buy low sell high situation for his new team. The risk there is that he is already making 8.2 million this season, and won’t make any less than that next year, so if he’s not providing better value his new club wouldn’t be in line to get anything from their investment but an expensive back of the rotation pitcher.

Guthrie may be a prudent move for the Seattle Mariners, the Twins, KC, or Milwaukee but that would be strictly as a year to year investment. It would be a team that’s out of contention jockeying for a more or less money only commitment that could net a valuable prospect at next year’s trade deadline, or assist them when they would otherwise sit on the cusp of contention next season. Overall, he’s currently managed to make his stock with the Rox all but disappear and the team is tired of him already. He may be on his way to being a Milton Bradley or Carlos Silva type of malcontent and mid level talent. I don’t know that Guthrie really has anything in the way of an attitude problem, but it is telling that Dan Duquette dealt him so quickly, and the Rox are already looking to find him a new home rather than searching for a solution to his issues with the team.

Who Can The Padres Trade?

What are the Padres thinking? The team has already picked up Jason Marquis and Ross Ohlendorf. They have also not only happily acquired these two pitchers but have put them onto their active major league roster. This is a team with no hope. If the Padres do anything other than trade everything of value that they have between the second this is posted and the trade deadline this season should be considered nothing but an extreme failure. Lets go ahead and look at what they might be able to trade. For the sake of argument we’ll assume that the fact that they have Omar Minaya and Josh Byrnes in positions of significant authority won’t be a serious hindrance to making competent trades.

The team has sought out replacements for the likes of Jeff Suppan by replacing them with pitchers other clubs didn’t want, Ohlendorf was barely good enough for the Red Sox to keep in AAA, let alone putting him on the big club’s roster. Marquis was as bad if not worse than I predicted with the Twins. He’s not going to suddenly be an ace or any type of savior for this rotation either. If the Padres are claiming anything other than that they’re rebuilding, they’re miserable liars or hopelessly delusional. The Padres realistically need to look at what they have and what they can get for what they have at the moment. They have the 10th ranked ERA in the NL at the moment, almost all of the positive value is owed to Cory Luebke. but the team needs to look at what they can do two or three years from now because they’re not going to compete next year either if this is the same general team they’re putting out there in a year.

The Padres need to build up value in a reliever or two. Huston Street, having made two appearances this month after missing most of May, still has his “Genuine Closer” label and if the Friars can show him off for a few weeks he’ll be worth looking at for several clubs in contention.

There’s nothing to do with someone like Carlos Quentin on a losing team but flip them for prospects, and flip him they shall. While some people are using their big boy internet pedestals to play GM and say that the Dodgers need to make a push for Quentin. I don’t see it. They’ll overpay in prospects to get a pretty good left fielder from a division rival, and their lineup, though banged up, isn’t where their biggest problems are, much less so in the outfield.

Chase Headley is a hard sell. At 28 he’s going to be arbitration eligible for the first time so he’ll command a few legitimate prospects, possibly one of the better hauls for anyone that they could give up this season. I don’t know that the Friars will be willing to give up Headley but I don’t see why they wouldn’t listen to offers.

Mark Kotsay isn’t exactly a top tier player but a utility outfielder with a little first base experience certainly has value, especially on a 1 year contract for a contender looking to sure up their bench. I wouldn’t look at Kotsay to command a huge return but a quadruple A starter or a mid tier prospect isn’t necessarily out of the question.

The Padres could certainly move Edinson Volquez, Clayton Richard, Andrew Cashner, Joe Thatcher, or Jeremy Hermida all with varying returns. Their best return would come from Volquez though I don’t know that what they’d get back would quite outweigh what he can provide the team over the next few years. Hermida would provide a reasonable amount of value as a 4th outfielder who can provide something with his bat (though I’m not totally sure what that something is) and could net the team a prospect without really hurting themselves this season.

The Padres are in a weird spot. They have a very good farm system according to several sources who rank such things so attempting to acquire more organizational depth may not be what’s needed here. The Padres could probably do well to get rid of anyone on a 1 year contract that they’re not 100% sure they can extend. With their place in the standings secured it almost makes more sense to let some of their top tier prospects get a feel for major league pitchers/hitters now rather than waiting until September.