Saturday, July 28, 2012

Tim Lincecum

I felt bad for bashing the Giants in my last post, so let’s do some actual analysis of their worst starter....Tim Lincecum.  Fangraphs has done a decent look at what is causing the problems with Lincecum.  I’m going to do my best not to parrot them, but here’s their article on him.  In it, they explain that while Timmy’s xFIP and actual FIP are good, not stellar but good, there’s more to it than him not getting lucky, as his K-rate is inline with his career value.  The problem is that his walk-rate is up about one extra walk per game, his HR rate is much much higher than ever.  The sad thing is that this was coming, and was noticeably coming.  Since 2009, here are his walk-rates:


That’s a big increase in only a few years.  His HR rates are:


Again, since 2009, it’s gone up a considerable amount.  Like an amazing amount.  He was such a good pitcher a few years ago.  Now his slider doesn’t have the same bite, his fastball doesn’t move as much.  He’s lost about 2.5 MPH off of his fastball.  His slider has a batting average against increase from .118 in 2009 to .284 this year.

His mechanics and body frame have caught up to him.  His pitches aren’t as good.  That cooky delivery and large inning log from when he was younger (200+ innings each year from age 24 on will do that sometimes) have drained what life there was in his arm.  His fastball at most now is 94 MPH, his slider sucks, he’s got nothing left.

He’s got time to turn it around, but doubt it at this point.  It’ll be interesting to see what his contract will look like after 2013 when he becomes a free agent for the first time.  2 years ago you would have thought he’d set a record for FA pitchers.  Not looking like it now.  Unless Sabean has something to say about it.  Hell, he’ll probably give him a 7 year deal worth 150 mil just for old times sake.

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