Overall, the AL East has been an incredibly difficult division to compete in over the last decade or two, and with the Jays having made huge splashes in acquiring roughly one third of the talent in the NL East, the Red Sox signing two more catchers, and the Yankees resigning some of the most important pieces from their post season run last year, while letting two other pieces walk away without so much as a finger raised by Cashman, one would be forced to assume that the division has changed some this year.
The division has changed significantly; there is no baseball mind who would argue that the landscape in the AL East is changing for 2013. Not necessarily the standings though. Many analysts are still painting the Yanks as a 1st place team, despite losing Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, and letting Rafael Soriano walk away. I don’t know exactly how accurate that is, Martin is an excellent backstop, both for his framing abilities and the fact that he brings some power and on base percentage to the equation that many replacements wouldn’t offer. Francisco Cervelli will be a fine replacement, offering less power but similar defense as well as the ability to play third base if need be. Chris Stewart has a pretty light bat and while he’s cited as a defensive specialist, that is a tag given to him more due to his light hitting than his actual (and slightly dubious) defensive abilities. Austin Romine is the biggest wildcard of the three, having very little major league experience. He projects to have a weaker than average bat at the position, but provide solid defense. Swisher is perhaps the hardest of the three to replace in earnest. Ichiro Suzuki will replace him in right field, but Swisher provided a balanced approach between average defense, above average power, and high on base percentage, Ichiro’s game hinges on his potentially gold glove worthy fielding, his speed on the base paths, and his unbelievably high contact rate at the plate. Soriano, who stepped in to replace an injured Mariano Rivera was largely expendable however. That is not to say that someone of Soriano’s particular skill set is not valuable to the Yankees, but because of their otherwise very strong bullpen and the number of cheap middle innings relievers, moving everyone up one spot in the depth chart would not hinder the Yankees in a practical sense. With plenty of time to acquire a more powerful outfield bat to help rest the light hitting Brett Gardner and Suzuki and/or a game changing catcher the Yanks certainly remain a very dangerous team despite the turnover.
The Red Sox have spent half of last year and the bulk of this offseason retooling the entire team, from trading Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers for several pieces and salary relief, to their recent trade for Joel Hanrahan the Red Sox have shown no particular sentiment toward their own players. This may well play to their benefit; the Sox have retooled well so far, having acquired yet another catcher, and potentially will finalize their deal with Mike Napoli soon. The Sox have a potentially very powerful rotation, despite last year’s utter failings. Jon Lester and Clay Bucholtz are both extremely good pitchers, whether they showed it last year or not. Combining their talents with the overall value of their lineup the Red Sox should be notably more competitive than they were one year ago.
The Orioles have made almost no moves this year, and the kind of statistical anomaly that allowed them to reach the postseason last year doesn’t seem as likely without making any real push at another piece or two. Letting Mark Reynolds walk away isn’t immediately addition by subtraction. His strikeout rate was atrocious, but he does put the ball in the seats and that’s not a bad talent to have. He’s a hack 3rd baseman for sure, but he can handle first just fine, and there’s certainly value in a player like Reynolds. That said, the Orioles can still make moves this offseason, and may surprise me, but I’d call for them to regress given the improbability of their record last year. Having scored only 7 more runs than they allowed for the year while winning 93 games. That’s some serious statistical outlier material there. If the O’s don’t make some serious headway on that run differential, I could see them sliding back to being a .500 team this year.
The Rays haven’t made any great strides forward either, though trading James Shields and Wade Davis isn’t exactly as devastating as some have made it seem. While Tampa did give up an exceptional starter they are also a pitching machine, and seem to churn out starters on an annual basis. The team could use a bit more pop, and losing BJ Upton isn’t going to help them there, but with such a strong starting rotation I find it hard to believe that they’ll fall out of contention early. The Rays may be looking at 3rd in the division again this year, but it should be awfully difficult to count them out.
The Blue Jays are, well, better. They’ve traded for roughly half of last year’s Marlins team, RA Dickey, and signed Melky Cabrera all in about a month. Between Dickey and Buehrle their rotation has instantly become very solid while they have also added two (potentially) very strong multi tooled players in Jose Reyes and Cabrera. The questions surrounding Cabrera’s PED use give me some pause in saying that he will be a very effective addition, but even as a league average bat he will provide solid defense in any of the three outfield spots, though his range is probably best suited to a corner. Reyes, while a very capable shortstop, is an injury risk. That certainly won’t be made better by playing 82 games on the fake turf of the Rogers Center. The Jays have a chance to really take a step forward within the division, I won’t argue for even a moment that their rotation isn’t better now, but their other additions are questionable to me. I don’t think that they have the right pieces in place to be a real postseason run, but they should make the AL East a more interesting division for the next few years, especially if this is how Alex Anthopoulos plans to really move the team forward over the next few years.
As per Bob Dylan, “The times; they are a changing.” I see the division shaking out to still see the Yankees in the playoffs, whether the division or a wildcard I don’t know. The Red Sox I feel will miss the post season again, while the Blue Jays make a push for a playoff berth. The Orioles are poised to regress significantly, while the Rays are a serious question mark to me, They’re worse right now than they were last season, but they have a track record of being surprisingly competitive regardless of the moves they make/miss. It’s certainly a different world when the Yankees are concerned with their spending and the Blue Jays have transformed their team by taking on large contracts.
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rays. Show all posts
Friday, December 28, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
AL Postseason Hopefuls and the Schedules That Could Break Them
The AL wild card race is getting pretty serious down the stretch now, and we’re seeing that while the playoff picture is being painted at this point, we’re looking to see the season come down to the last game or two again this season. With that said, it appears that the last 15 or so games will make a good bit of difference. Of teams that are fighting for playoff berths outside of the AL Central (I have both already covered it, and both teams have worse records than the bulk of the wild card hopefuls).
The Athletics have looked great this season, pitching especially has carried the team. It appears in fact that they may have a second and possibly third MLB quality rotation sitting between AAA and AA. They do however have a very difficult schedule going forward. Of their last 15 games, they have 12 against teams with a winning record and only three against the Seattle Mariners. Contrasting that, the Angels have eight of their last 14 against winning teams and six games against those same Mariners. Those 3 additional games against a last place team could certainly make a notable difference for them trying to get into the postseason.
In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays are apt to have the hardest time getting into the postseason, not only because of their record at this point, but because they are going to finish the season with seven straight games against teams that are currently in position to make the postseason, four against the White Sox and three games against the Orioles to close out their season. The Orioles and the Yankees are currently tied for the division lead after the Yankees were rained out yesterday. Both teams have 3 games left against postseason contenders, and are otherwise facing teams fighting to avoid the basement in their divisions. They have a pretty equal schedule at this point, and it’s somewhat hard to give the edge to either team given the A’s and Tampa are both very strong teams, and it’s hard to point to one and declare them the “better” team given their respective schedules but I’d probably give a slight edge to the A’s, which would give the Yankees the marginally harder schedule.
There’s a lot going on over these last two weeks of the regular season. Given the difficulty of the A’s remaining schedule, the Angels may surprise us and overtake them for a postseason berth, the Orioles may be in the midst of making a worst to first switch, showing everyone yet again that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette are both still capable of turning a team around at a baseball moment’s notice. Without a real push, the Tigers will miss the postseason after making it to last year’s ALCS, and the AL Central will have a different division winner for the third year in a row.
The Athletics have looked great this season, pitching especially has carried the team. It appears in fact that they may have a second and possibly third MLB quality rotation sitting between AAA and AA. They do however have a very difficult schedule going forward. Of their last 15 games, they have 12 against teams with a winning record and only three against the Seattle Mariners. Contrasting that, the Angels have eight of their last 14 against winning teams and six games against those same Mariners. Those 3 additional games against a last place team could certainly make a notable difference for them trying to get into the postseason.
In the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays are apt to have the hardest time getting into the postseason, not only because of their record at this point, but because they are going to finish the season with seven straight games against teams that are currently in position to make the postseason, four against the White Sox and three games against the Orioles to close out their season. The Orioles and the Yankees are currently tied for the division lead after the Yankees were rained out yesterday. Both teams have 3 games left against postseason contenders, and are otherwise facing teams fighting to avoid the basement in their divisions. They have a pretty equal schedule at this point, and it’s somewhat hard to give the edge to either team given the A’s and Tampa are both very strong teams, and it’s hard to point to one and declare them the “better” team given their respective schedules but I’d probably give a slight edge to the A’s, which would give the Yankees the marginally harder schedule.
There’s a lot going on over these last two weeks of the regular season. Given the difficulty of the A’s remaining schedule, the Angels may surprise us and overtake them for a postseason berth, the Orioles may be in the midst of making a worst to first switch, showing everyone yet again that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette are both still capable of turning a team around at a baseball moment’s notice. Without a real push, the Tigers will miss the postseason after making it to last year’s ALCS, and the AL Central will have a different division winner for the third year in a row.
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Tampa Bay Rays - Looking at the Rotation
As we’ve made it past the 16th game of the season, we’ve seen 3 full passes through just about everyone’s rotation, and continuing the theme of evaluating team’s rotations, today we’ll look at the Tampa Bay Rays. I feel like I’m repeating myself, but it’s not really a surprise that the financially constrained Rays have a young pitching staff, with 30 year old James Shields and 29 year old Jeff Niemann being the oldest pitchers being handed the ball every 5th day.
James Shields has pitched very well so far, in fact his ERA+ is 5 points better than last year’s Cy Young candidate season. Shields has been up and down from year to year, having two very good years in ‘07 and ‘08, but regressed to league average in ‘09 and had a very rough 2010 (5.18 ERA). He followed up that very weak campaign with a 2.82 ERA and a 3rd place finish in Cy Young voting last year and if the early season is any indication, he’s looking to make a run at it again this season. He’s striking out fewer batters so far, but his walk rate is very close and he’s keeping the ball on the ground, garnering nearly 2 ground outs for each fly out, and has only given up 1 home run over 29 and ⅓ innings. I’d look for the strikeout rate to come back up a bit, and with it a few more fly balls, but if he can keep runners off base like he has been (1.091 WHIP) he’ll be positioned for another spectacular year.
Jeff Niemann is a bit more consistent across the board, he’s a league average pitcher who isn’t really doing any given thing wrong. He’s given up 2 home runs so far in 15 and ⅓ innings, which runs right in line with his career average, much like his ERA sitting about .05 below his career number. The two things I can’t see him sustaining are his WHIP (0.978) and his strikeout rate (25% of batters faced). The WHIP will normalize as his BABIP comes back to earth from the .205 it sits at now, but that kind of strikeout rate is going to burn up his pitch count in a hurry. Niemann’s stats will regress and normalize, but he shouldn’t stray too far from being a league average pitcher.
David Price has the same amount of service time as Niemann despite being 3 years younger, and has put together a very respectable resume over the last few years. Price’s ERA is very good at the moment, and he’s certainly shown the ability to keep it right where it is now, but with his peripheral stats where they are now, that isn’t likely for the whole season. Price doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, but right now he’s only given up 1 over 24 innings, which is excellent for him but not likely to be sustained. He’s walking almost 4 batters per 9 which is a bit high for him. The walk rate wouldn’t concern me if his strikeout rate wasn’t down along with it. Price’s WHIP and BABIP are a bit higher than his career averages, but could certainly remain about where they are.
Matt Moore at 23 years old he’s experiencing a rough start to what could be his first full year in the majors. in 19 and ⅓ innings his walk rate and strikeout rate are near identical, which can’t remain that way if he looks to execute on the flash of skill we saw last year or in the playoffs against the Rangers. Moore’s minor league stats are pretty much right in line with what he showed at the end of last season, high strikeout totals, a few walks, but overall keeps the ball in the yard very well. Who knows what he’ll do after breaking camp with the big club this spring, but he’s looked rough so far. I don’t expect to see his AAA numbers in the AL East, but he can certainly start to adjust and get the ball down more. Moore probably won’t be a Cy Young candidate, but I can’t see him staying this far below league average for long if he expects to hang with the big club all year.
Jeremy Hellickson, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner has come out of the gate in mid season form. His ERA is excellent, though not Cy Young worthy, though his walk rate is up, and his strikeout rate is down some regression and growing pains are to be expected in his second year. His 10 walks and 16 hits in 19 and ⅓ innings aren’t pretty, but he hasn’t been stung too bad by them yet. If Hellickson is to be productive through the season he’ll do well to adjust some there, but having only given up 7 earned runs so far, obviously it’s working for him just fine.
The Rays have a very good young rotation and are able to count on both Price and Shields to pitch like aces. If Moore and Hellickson can settle down and get their command back to where it was a year ago, this rotation could carry a much lesser offense to a respectable record. I fully expect to see the Rays vying for a playoff spot late in the season.
James Shields has pitched very well so far, in fact his ERA+ is 5 points better than last year’s Cy Young candidate season. Shields has been up and down from year to year, having two very good years in ‘07 and ‘08, but regressed to league average in ‘09 and had a very rough 2010 (5.18 ERA). He followed up that very weak campaign with a 2.82 ERA and a 3rd place finish in Cy Young voting last year and if the early season is any indication, he’s looking to make a run at it again this season. He’s striking out fewer batters so far, but his walk rate is very close and he’s keeping the ball on the ground, garnering nearly 2 ground outs for each fly out, and has only given up 1 home run over 29 and ⅓ innings. I’d look for the strikeout rate to come back up a bit, and with it a few more fly balls, but if he can keep runners off base like he has been (1.091 WHIP) he’ll be positioned for another spectacular year.
Jeff Niemann is a bit more consistent across the board, he’s a league average pitcher who isn’t really doing any given thing wrong. He’s given up 2 home runs so far in 15 and ⅓ innings, which runs right in line with his career average, much like his ERA sitting about .05 below his career number. The two things I can’t see him sustaining are his WHIP (0.978) and his strikeout rate (25% of batters faced). The WHIP will normalize as his BABIP comes back to earth from the .205 it sits at now, but that kind of strikeout rate is going to burn up his pitch count in a hurry. Niemann’s stats will regress and normalize, but he shouldn’t stray too far from being a league average pitcher.
David Price has the same amount of service time as Niemann despite being 3 years younger, and has put together a very respectable resume over the last few years. Price’s ERA is very good at the moment, and he’s certainly shown the ability to keep it right where it is now, but with his peripheral stats where they are now, that isn’t likely for the whole season. Price doesn’t give up a lot of home runs, but right now he’s only given up 1 over 24 innings, which is excellent for him but not likely to be sustained. He’s walking almost 4 batters per 9 which is a bit high for him. The walk rate wouldn’t concern me if his strikeout rate wasn’t down along with it. Price’s WHIP and BABIP are a bit higher than his career averages, but could certainly remain about where they are.
Matt Moore at 23 years old he’s experiencing a rough start to what could be his first full year in the majors. in 19 and ⅓ innings his walk rate and strikeout rate are near identical, which can’t remain that way if he looks to execute on the flash of skill we saw last year or in the playoffs against the Rangers. Moore’s minor league stats are pretty much right in line with what he showed at the end of last season, high strikeout totals, a few walks, but overall keeps the ball in the yard very well. Who knows what he’ll do after breaking camp with the big club this spring, but he’s looked rough so far. I don’t expect to see his AAA numbers in the AL East, but he can certainly start to adjust and get the ball down more. Moore probably won’t be a Cy Young candidate, but I can’t see him staying this far below league average for long if he expects to hang with the big club all year.
Jeremy Hellickson, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner has come out of the gate in mid season form. His ERA is excellent, though not Cy Young worthy, though his walk rate is up, and his strikeout rate is down some regression and growing pains are to be expected in his second year. His 10 walks and 16 hits in 19 and ⅓ innings aren’t pretty, but he hasn’t been stung too bad by them yet. If Hellickson is to be productive through the season he’ll do well to adjust some there, but having only given up 7 earned runs so far, obviously it’s working for him just fine.
The Rays have a very good young rotation and are able to count on both Price and Shields to pitch like aces. If Moore and Hellickson can settle down and get their command back to where it was a year ago, this rotation could carry a much lesser offense to a respectable record. I fully expect to see the Rays vying for a playoff spot late in the season.
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