Tim Lincecum

I felt bad for bashing the Giants in my last post, so let’s do some actual analysis of their worst starter....Tim Lincecum.  Fangraphs has done a decent look at what is causing the problems with Lincecum.  I’m going to do my best not to parrot them, but here’s their article on him.  In it, they explain that while Timmy’s xFIP and actual FIP are good, not stellar but good, there’s more to it than him not getting lucky, as his K-rate is inline with his career value.  The problem is that his walk-rate is up about one extra walk per game, his HR rate is much much higher than ever.  The sad thing is that this was coming, and was noticeably coming.  Since 2009, here are his walk-rates:

2.72
3.22
3.57
4.33

That’s a big increase in only a few years.  His HR rates are:

0.40
0.76
0.62
1.08

Again, since 2009, it’s gone up a considerable amount.  Like an amazing amount.  He was such a good pitcher a few years ago.  Now his slider doesn’t have the same bite, his fastball doesn’t move as much.  He’s lost about 2.5 MPH off of his fastball.  His slider has a batting average against increase from .118 in 2009 to .284 this year.

His mechanics and body frame have caught up to him.  His pitches aren’t as good.  That cooky delivery and large inning log from when he was younger (200+ innings each year from age 24 on will do that sometimes) have drained what life there was in his arm.  His fastball at most now is 94 MPH, his slider sucks, he’s got nothing left.

He’s got time to turn it around, but doubt it at this point.  It’ll be interesting to see what his contract will look like after 2013 when he becomes a free agent for the first time.  2 years ago you would have thought he’d set a record for FA pitchers.  Not looking like it now.  Unless Sabean has something to say about it.  Hell, he’ll probably give him a 7 year deal worth 150 mil just for old times sake.

Scrappy Whiteness will lead to a World Title!

If you’re a San Fransisco Giants fan, you have to be pretty excited right now.  One of your pitchers is in danger of posting the worst season ever for a starter, and it isn’t Barry Zito (who actually is putting up an OK season, not good but not piss poor either).  In the offseason, your GM picked did a great job by picking up a second baseman that has a scrappy-whiteness factor (SWF) of 3 (the lower the better).  For a frame of reference:

Darin Erstad: 0
David Eckstein: -5
Adam Kennedy: 5
Barry Bonds: 1000
Albert Pujols: 1400

Wow, Bonds really was not very scrappy....or white for that matter.  Pujols moreso.  Maybe all those people whining about him not running out grounders had a point.

And, as an added bonus, handed the starting SS position to another guy with a great SWF of 3.  You’ve got a scrappy scrappy middle infield!  And, as a surprise to no one, you’ve got a league average offense.  What is surprising to people is that it’s mostly on the strength of Melky Cabrerra, but also because of Buster Posey and The Panda.  Now that Panda is hurt, your GM decides to get even scrappier and whiter by picking up....Marco Scutaro.  SWF of 0.  Scutaro, while playing for Colorado posted an OPS of 684.  That’s a terrible terrible number, even for a scrappy white guy.  In Coors, he had an OPS of 793, which is pretty good for a guy at 2B and SS most of the time.  But, away from Coors, his OPS drops to 570.  And you’re going to put that in that cavernous ballpark in San Fran?

Is everyone thinking what I am?  San Fran just became the favorite in the NL.  And it’s not due to their 4th best pitching staff in the NL which has allowed the 5th fewest HR.  No.  It’s due to the scrappiness of their lineup.  Just watch.  The NL West will be dominated by this great scrappy team and they’ll march on to their 2nd title in 3 years.

Melky Cabrera: All-star MVP, Unreal Outfielder, Possible Free Agent

Melky Cabrera was named the All-star MVP last night and carried his career year into the exhibition without a hitch. Cabrera who only 2 years ago was non-tendered by the Braves has been making a strong case for an extension in his time with KC and now with the Giants. As a free agent after this season, the now much trimmer Melky is primed to receive a pretty solid contract. If the Giants don’t make him a satisfying option he will be joining a fair number of pretty serious names on the free agent market. Nick Swisher, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, and (potentially) Ryan Ludwick will all be clamoring for contracts themselves but the Melk-Man’s surge to legitimacy will have interest in the (soon to be) 28 year old outfielder should be pretty serious, especially given his ability to play all 3 outfield positions with aplomb.

Cabrera has primarily played left field this season, but his arm is certainly strong enough that he can play right or center without any issues. Depending on the metrics you use his defense is anywhere from cripplingly inadequate to excellent, sometimes at the same position. Anecdotally from what I’ve seen, outside of his first brief stint with the Yankees where he looked overwhelmed all around, his defense has been excellent any time I’ve seen him in the field, I’m sure that is somewhat colored by seeing his rocket throws from the outfield to some degree.

That much said, Melky isn’t without his faults, his BABIP has been off the charts since joining KC. Sitting with a .388 BABIP is unreal, the results have been undeniable however, he’s getting on base almost 40% of the time, and when he puts the ball in play, it’s finding holes. Playing on the west coast, Melky’s not showing a ton of power, but he still has an outside chance at 20 homers this year and his speed has been passable, if not impressive. Overall Cabrera has managed to put together an impressive 2 year stretch which has fueled his unbelievable turnaround from being a fringe starter/4th outfielder to being one of the better all around outfielders in the game.

Looking at comparable players including Nick Swisher, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, and Andre Ethier, none of whom is really a great match up for the Melk-Man overall, but all of whom can be called very good to great outfielders.Ethier or Holliday’s contract certainly won’t be good matches for Melky, while Ethier has similar power numbers and a worse batting average than Melky, his contract is based partly on his 30 homer season at 27, his defense, and his consistency. Over the past 2 years Melky has been arguably the better of the two but he hasn’t been as consistent. Cruz is a much stronger power hitter, but couldn’t match Melky’s on base skills and hasn’t been a comparable power threat since 2010, he’s also 31 years old. Upton is much younger, has already shown sustained success and potential for greater power and comparable, probably superior speed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-4 year deal worth around 10-12 million per year for Melky weighing his relatively short period of true success and the startlingly strong year he’s having.

San Francisco Giants: How Far Can the Rotation Take Them?

The San Francisco Giants have managed to stay afloat so far, and with the tight battle in the NL East, could eek out a playoff spot despite the Dodgers command on their division. The Giants have their question marks like any other team, but how much of that really comes into play in the starting rotation?

Ryan Vogelsong returned to the show last season after 5 years between Japan and the Minor Leagues. When Vogelsong left the states he had put together several years of generally ineffective pitching and after bouncing through 3 organizations before returning to the Giants in 2010 and joining their AAA team. He had clearly learned more in those few years than could be put into words. He re-emerged last season as a 33 year old ace caliber pitcher. He has so far this year managed to continue his dominance. He has so far pitched no less than 6 innings in any given outing, and has only given up 3 or more runs on 3 occasions this season. He does walk an abnormally large number of batters, 26 so far over his 61 innings but while he’s walking about 10% of batters faced, he is striking out around 18% as well, and has limited opposing hitters ability to put good wood on the ball, so far only 16% of balls in play have been line drives. Vogelsong has been effective so far, and more importantly very consistent on top of it. It looks like Vogelsong’s hot year last year was no fluke. Though I’d like to see him limit walks a bit more, there’s no arguing with his results, I don’t know that he’ll keep up this pace but he certainly has the ability to really help keep the Giants in the playoff race.

Madison Bumgarner didn’t start the year with his best performance, but has since that disappointing 4 inning outing, he has gone 6+ in each start having compiled 6 quality starts in 10 opportunities so far this season. So far in 66 innings he has sent 47 batters back to the dugout without contact, and has given up only 14 free passes. While the strikeout rate isn’t overwhelming, giving up less than 2 walks per 9 is very encouraging. Bumgarner seems to be relying on ground balls a bit more this season than he has over the past 2 seasons, racking them up a bit more than half of the time while keeping opposing batters to an extremely anemic 12% line drives. I wouldn’t look for the line drive rate to continue, but even if it comes up a bit it shouldn’t absolutely destroy the young pitcher. He has given up 7 home runs so far, which isn’t overwhelming, and is more in line with reality than the .5 per 9 he gave up last season. Bumgarner looks pretty good all things considered, but I’d be very surprised if he was able to force opposing hitters into making bad contact like this all year, in all likelihood he’ll stay effective, but will probably start giving up a few more hits as batters start adjusting and making better contact.

Matt Cain is putting up some excellent numbers this season, and is so far building upon his dominance from last year. He’s walking less than 2 batters per 9, has struck out 66 batters already, and has thrown 71 innings over his first 10 starts. He made quite the statement going back to back with 9 inning shutout performances (though the 2nd was not a complete game). Cain has been a beast so far, compiling 8 quality starts in 10 attempts and generally improving in almost every way from last season. The biggest concern one could have with Cain is that he’s regressed in his groundball/flyball splits. He’s giving up an overwhelming amount of fly balls, though he has shown that he can be incredibly effective when pitching like that. The NL west is known for allowing flyball pitchers to appear incredibly effective while being much less well suited to playing in a more hitter friendly stadium/division. Cain is making every effort to make good on his extension though, and looks like he’s going to be well worth what they’re paying him out in San Fran this year, even if he’d look less impressive on the east coast.

Tim Lincecum is looking like he’s taken an overall nosedive in effectiveness. Lincecum has been able to eat innings, but with mixed results and nothing approaching his dominance over the past 4 seasons. His walk rate is through the roof at 34 free passes in 60 & ⅓ innings. Lincecum’s BABIP is up to an ugly .333 likely in large part to his 22% line drive rate and his decreased effectiveness in getting ground balls. He’s never been a ground ball pitcher per se but he is typically more effective in keeping the ball on the ground than he has been this year, and for a pitcher who has averages 26+% strikeouts he can certainly give up a few fly balls without hurting his ERA. This season, everything seems to be betraying him however. He’s walking roughly ⅛ of the batters he faces and while he’s still striking out more than 1 per inning,  he’s getting fewer strikeouts than in the past. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him start to round into form as the year progresses but there’s not really any reason for hiccup in effectiveness. Perhaps he’s battling minor injury, perhaps he’s seeing a small mechanical issue, maybe he’s tipping pitches, but what is for sure is that he’s not quite right, and his walk rate has shown that more than anything else.

Barry Zito has continued to be the worst investment that the Giants have made in the last several years finally started providing a return on the Giants investment. Zito has had his rough starts this year, but so far he’s only really left the team hanging twice. He came out in his first start and put together a complete game shutout and followed that up with 3 more solid performances. Zito is still walking a lot of batters, so far 26 in his 58 innings pitched, and he’s most certainly a contact pitcher having only struck out 34 so far. He’s doing a good job of keeping hitters off balance and avoiding line drives (15%) but otherwise looks relatively pedestrian. I don’t know exactly what the Giants can expect out of Zito for the season, but at the moment he’s contributing, and that’s all anyone can really expect from him after 5 years of consistent disappointment. Zito might not actually be any better than he’s been over the past few years, but the extended stint on the DL last year might have been exactly what he needed to finally get himself right.

Overall it looks like the rotation is a strength in San Fran again this season, despite Lincecum’s troubles, the rest of the rotation really has stepped up to make for a very strong rotation. The Giants have the 4th best team ERA in the NL so far, and if Lincecum can right the ship, their rotation will be as formidable as any in the MLB. Their offense has been something of an interesting study, they have the 5th best batting average, but the 8th OBP and 10th most runs. Despite being quite proficient in making contact as a team, they’re not walking, and not hitting for power. I see them as a legitimate contender to snag a wildcard spot given the close race in the NL East preventing any given team from running away with that division. Their lineup could do with an upgrade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a move or two near the deadline to really help make a strong push, especially if they can see weakness out of the Dodgers.