Jeremy Guthrie's Next Contract

Trying to make sense out of Jeremy Guthrie is almost like trying to explain the color red to a blind man. Guthrie was drafted by the Mets, wouldn’t sign, drafted by the Pirates, wouldn’t sign, and finally is the 22nd pick of the 2002 draft. He couldn’t put it together in three short seasons with Cleveland, they give up on him and let him go to Baltimore where he promptly turns it on for two years, follows it up with an inexplicable stinker in ‘09. Has a great year after that, then a weaker, but still respectable year in 2011. They sent him to the Rockies for two effective pitchers in Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. He was so bad that he was traded after ½ of a season for Jonathan Sanchez. He emerges as the replacement for Sanchez in the KC rotation and turns it on again.

It appears that Guthrie really flourishes when people give up on him. He can really turn it on, just concentrate on pitching, but not until he makes himself a burden first. He is a free agent after this season, and the market is thin on top flight pitchers. Guthrie was truly awful in the first ½ this season, just terrible, So much so that he was relegated to the bullpen to limit the damage he could do in a given week.  In all fairness, the time in Colorado was the worst he’s been for any extended stretch in his professional career, and a lot of it can be attributed to his home starts in Coors field, the thin air ruins the break of a curveball, and in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances at Coors this year, he gave up 14 home runs and 20 doubles over 41 and ⅔ innings. By comparison he’s made 8 starts at Kauffman Stadium this year and has given up 5 doubles, 3 homers, and pitched 12 & ⅓ more innings.

He is also a flyball pitcher, so that much cannot be excused, if you’re letting opposing hitters put the ball in the air in Coors field you may as well just let them put it in the seats and jog around the bases. All in all, the first ½ of this season could be considered a wash for Guthrie who was all but set up to fail from the onset. Poor decisions made by the Colorado Rockies front office may well negatively impact Guthrie’s next contract unfairly.

Looking at the 2013 free agent class for starters we’re faced with a near formulaic grouping: There are a few excellent starters coming off strong years in their late 20s/early 30s looking to sign a big multi year deal (Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, and to a lesser extent Edwin Jackson), there are older pitchers who are still productive enough to look for a multi year contract, but are realistically going to receive a one year contract (Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Millwood, and Ryan Dempster), effective innings eaters (Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders), reclamation projects (Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka), and guys who aren’t living up to their potential (Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, arguably Carlos Zambrano). There’s no particular group that Guthrie fits into, he was terrible for ½ of a year, and he’s been an ace for ½ of a year. What do you do with that?

I think that many teams will be wary of the hot and cold nature of Guthrie’s performance but some are bound to be enticed by his potential. He’s got a successful track record, but has had bouts with ineffectiveness that have made his ace like potential difficult to count on. I am unsure of whether Guthrie will receive a multi-year contract, he’s 34 so counting on a 3+ year contract is unlikely, but maybe a 2 year contract somewhere around an annual value of 8 Million is not out of the question, but many teams may offer more on a 1 year contract with a 2nd year team option, maybe 10 million with a 2 million buyout and a 10 million 2nd year? Someone may be willing to overpay for his services given his track record but this season has certainly made it difficult to assess his true value to an acquiring team. There will certainly be suitors who are willing to give him a shot, possibly someone in the NL west, or the rebuilding Astros. In his position I may be one to look for a chance at the playoffs though, possibly accepting a 1 year deal with the Rays, White Sox, A’s, Yankees, Nationals, Braves, etc. would be in line with getting a chance at the championship. The Royals may make a play to keep the Stanford grad in their rotation, and there may be some interest in the NL Central from teams like the Cubbies, a pitcher like Guthrie can be valuable trade bait at the deadline if his contract is reasonable, so he may be a good gamble for a team that won’t likely be in the playoff hunt, but is looking to compete in a few years time.

Melky Cabrera: All-star MVP, Unreal Outfielder, Possible Free Agent

Melky Cabrera was named the All-star MVP last night and carried his career year into the exhibition without a hitch. Cabrera who only 2 years ago was non-tendered by the Braves has been making a strong case for an extension in his time with KC and now with the Giants. As a free agent after this season, the now much trimmer Melky is primed to receive a pretty solid contract. If the Giants don’t make him a satisfying option he will be joining a fair number of pretty serious names on the free agent market. Nick Swisher, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, B.J. Upton, and (potentially) Ryan Ludwick will all be clamoring for contracts themselves but the Melk-Man’s surge to legitimacy will have interest in the (soon to be) 28 year old outfielder should be pretty serious, especially given his ability to play all 3 outfield positions with aplomb.

Cabrera has primarily played left field this season, but his arm is certainly strong enough that he can play right or center without any issues. Depending on the metrics you use his defense is anywhere from cripplingly inadequate to excellent, sometimes at the same position. Anecdotally from what I’ve seen, outside of his first brief stint with the Yankees where he looked overwhelmed all around, his defense has been excellent any time I’ve seen him in the field, I’m sure that is somewhat colored by seeing his rocket throws from the outfield to some degree.

That much said, Melky isn’t without his faults, his BABIP has been off the charts since joining KC. Sitting with a .388 BABIP is unreal, the results have been undeniable however, he’s getting on base almost 40% of the time, and when he puts the ball in play, it’s finding holes. Playing on the west coast, Melky’s not showing a ton of power, but he still has an outside chance at 20 homers this year and his speed has been passable, if not impressive. Overall Cabrera has managed to put together an impressive 2 year stretch which has fueled his unbelievable turnaround from being a fringe starter/4th outfielder to being one of the better all around outfielders in the game.

Looking at comparable players including Nick Swisher, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, and Andre Ethier, none of whom is really a great match up for the Melk-Man overall, but all of whom can be called very good to great outfielders.Ethier or Holliday’s contract certainly won’t be good matches for Melky, while Ethier has similar power numbers and a worse batting average than Melky, his contract is based partly on his 30 homer season at 27, his defense, and his consistency. Over the past 2 years Melky has been arguably the better of the two but he hasn’t been as consistent. Cruz is a much stronger power hitter, but couldn’t match Melky’s on base skills and hasn’t been a comparable power threat since 2010, he’s also 31 years old. Upton is much younger, has already shown sustained success and potential for greater power and comparable, probably superior speed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-4 year deal worth around 10-12 million per year for Melky weighing his relatively short period of true success and the startlingly strong year he’s having.

Who Wants Vlad? Anybody?

In light of the fact that Vladimir Guerrero has been released by the Blue Jays the question has to be asked; who might be interested in the rightfielder as a backup/DH option? He’s not much more than an insurance policy for any given team at this point. He’s more or less a replacement level player, potentially he could be a bit better than that again, but given the Blue Jays lack of confidence he may not really be worth too much. That said, the Jays would have had to displace someone productive for him. Edwin Encarnacion has been quite productive from the DH spot, he’s not near productive enough at this point in his career to replace Jose Bautista, but could have arguably been a reasonable replacement for Eric Thames. Vlad could have potentially taken Adam Lind’s place on the roster given his continued woes with the bat have extended to now having all but lost his power, but that would really be about it. There are other teams in both leagues who could potentially use someone like Vlad but few of them are currently in contention, and that will limit vlad’s marketability significantly.

The Pirates could potentially use someone like Vlad to take a day here or there for Alex Presley or Jose Tabata who are both young light hitting corner outfielders. Vlad isn’t any lock to be a great addition, but he could potentially help provide a bit of power and veteran leadership in the outfield and off the bench late in games for the Bucs. He wouldn’t necessarily be the kind of impact bat that the Pirates might want to sign to get them over the hump and keep them in contention but he’s a low risk, low money acquisition. This makes the most sense to me if the Bucs front office isn’t really sure that they’re really contenders, or just on a hot streak despite their league worst offensive production.

The KC Royals aren’t exactly hurting for someone like Vlad but might (as they often do) find value in his veteran status. He could serve as a bench bat and occasional corner outfielder if they chose to reach out to Fernando Cuza to see what kind of interest Vlad would have in such a role.

The Indians could look to release Johnny Damon and give his at bats to Vlad. I’d like to see Damon and Vlad both go out by choice rather than due to a lack of production/interest but this could be a case where one veteran outfielder forces another to retire.

The Orioles could potentially look at Vlad as insurance as much as anything else. They’ve been dealing with injuries to Nolan Reimold as well as others and could look at a return trip with Vlad as a potential shot in the arm if they believe that hiding him in left field would be viable, though I feel that they may view him as an all but strictly DH candidate at this juncture.

The Tigers haven’t gotten a ton out of right field or the DH spots between Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch. I wouldn’t expect Vlad to be looked at as an everyday outfielder but they might be willing to give him a shot in light of Delmon Young’s off field antics this season and his unimpressive offensive numbers.

There is potentially a fit for any other team that could use a bench bat/4th outfielder type but these are the ones that stand out to me at the moment. The D-Backs or Marlins who were linked to him in the offseason make some sense if they’re looking to get some power off the bench but his career long habit of swinging at every pitch he can see might deter them. I’m tempted to say that the Padres will make a play for Vlad in light of their recent decision to become the league’s garbage heap but there’s really no good fit here. He’s not likely to produce any more than Mark Kotsay and certainly couldn’t take over in a full time capacity in left field for Jesus Guzman. I happen to feel the Pirates are probably the best bet for Vlad if he’s willing to work in a largely mentoring role again this year. If he plays it right he might be able to parlay that into something much like Jason Giambi’s role with the Rockies.

Details of conversation between Colletti and Ethier's Agent Found

Ned C. : "Hey Nez!  How's it going, my good friend?"

Nez Balelo: "Fine Mr. Colletti.  How are you?"

NC: "I'm doing fine.  The reason why I called was...well, you know how we have new owners."

NB: "It was in the news."

NC: "I told them that I want to start talks on an extension with Andre Ethier.  And they are cool with it!"

NB: "Oh.  I'm glad to hear that.  Say Ned?"

NC: "Yessir?"

NB: "Didn't you give Juan Pierre a $44 million contract in 2007?"

NC: *awkward silence for 1 minute, then* "Oh, you remember that?"

NB: *Eyes light up and $$ appear on each eyeball.  The sound of a thousand cash registers ca-chinging to the Hallelujah Chorus plays in the background.*

I am so looking forward to the overpay Neddy's going to do on this one.  Ethier's a really good player, and from what MLBTR has posted, is looking for 14-15 mil over 4-5 years.  Ethier is just now hitting 30, which means that in this contract he'd be getting 15 mil as a 35-36 year old OF.  That's a lot to be paying, especially since he hasn't played more than 139 games in the last 2 years and doesn't walk a whole lot (career 363 OBP) while providing decent power.  This has backfire written all over it, cause once he hits those 34-35-36 years, that lack of OBP can really bite him where, as my mother would say, "The Good Lord split him." as his OPS will start to tank.  But, this is Ned Colletti we're talking about here.  I'm sure he'll do the right thing.

Francisco Liriano One Season From ???

Francisco Liriano will be a free agent at the end of the season and as a starter who has realized his potential with excellent seasons and also shown to be only slightly more effective than the Dontrelle Willis we’ve become accustomed to seeing since ‘07, where will he land? Much like Willis, the fact that  he’s a lefty with excellent stuff will surely keep him in or near the league, but the real question is what he’ll do this year, and how that will impact him going forward.

Much like Joel Pineiro who we have already discussed here Liriano’s career numbers make him look pedestrian as a result of being both dominant one season and a push over the next. Unlike Pineiro who is 6 years older, Liriano is in his last year of arbitration and will be only 29 on opening day next season. Surely his unpredictable performance will be a deterrent to many possible suitors, but his dazzling stat line in even numbered years will be appealing to someone. Liriano’s got too much potential to be ignored completely, and will, barring a catastrophically bad year, be looking at a major league offer or two at the end of the season.

One of the biggest question marks looking over his stat sheet is his command, while his BABIP is high year in and year out (.312 for his career) it seems one of his biggest issues is keeping the ball over the plate, but not over the middle. If you see Liriano giving up walks, you can be sure he’s gearing up to give up a shot into the bleachers shortly thereafter. In his dominant years he has kept his walk rate in check, while also keeping more balls in the yard, which absolutely makes sense. That much all feels very obvious, when he’s having trouble spotting pitches, he’s leaving a few over the middle of the plate trying to reestablish his command. It’s hard to call Liriano a groundball pitcher, but he certainly does seem to induce more ground balls when he’s on. This of course would help him more if his defense was backing him up more, and if he were on a more defensively solid team his overall numbers are liable to look a good bit better.

Cole Hamels’s career BABIP sits at a comfortable .285 including last season’s .259 that helped keep his opposing batting average to a .214 and his ERA light at 2.79. Similarly former teammate Matt Garza has a .290 BABIP helping keep his opposing batting average to a .250 for his career. While Liriano’s opposing batting average is also at .250, his walk rates have gotten him into trouble, last year for instance his opposing on base percentage sat at .350, 101 points higher than his opposing batting average. While the defense behind him could help take some of the sting out of his shaky location, Liriano’s biggest key to success is absolutely no different than the typical mantra for pitchers. If he can settle down and spot his pitches, he’ll put up good numbers and could be looked at as an asset for many teams going into next season rather than a D-Train style reclamation project.

Oh Omar

You loveable dunderhead

“The No. 1 priority was not long-term. Long-term, we were going to be contracted. And if you were going to be contracted, the No. 1 priority was to be as competitive as you can."

I'm not actually bashing him for this trade, even though afterwards the Expos weren't even moved until 2005 (3 years  post trade).  I can understand the feeling that if you're being contracted, and have a chance for competition to make a deal like that in what might be your last hurrah.
Here's why I'm posting this:
When has Omar Minaya ever thought in the "long-term"?  He signed the following with the Mets:

1) Carlos Beltran (Insanely backloaded deal, 19+mil in his last 3 years)
2) Pedro Martinez (Not as backloaded, but still 2 years paying him almost 15 mil when he was 34 and 35)
3) Billy Wagner (4 year deal from ages 34-37 and 10.5 mil a year!!)
4) Fransisco Rodriguez (12 million in the last 2 years of a 3 year deal)
5) Jason Bay (16 mil this year, 18 mil last year, 16 mil next year, 17 mil vesting option)

Plus trading away several young players (Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom, Brian Bannister, Carlos Gomez) who have made positive impacts on their new teams while the Mets have gotten Johan Santana (who had to be signed to a long term extension and injured his shoulder) as the only player from those deals that is still with the Mets, who didn't have a farm system under Minaya.  Now that they have Alderson there, they aren't trading away their youth and are actually focusing on developing young talent instead of making reactionary trades (Ambiorix Burgois on line 1).

Minaya is one of the reasons the Mets are currently in their financial bind right now.  He's made a lot of big investments and got somewhat unlucky with injuries, but he also made some contracts that would have been poor with or without injury. I mean, did anyone really think Pedro or Wagner would be good at the end of their contracts?

I didn't think so.

Johnny Damon Joins The Tribe

    Looks like Johnny Damon, self professed “idiot”, world series champion, and (potentially) the next member of the 3000 hit club will be replacing former Yankees teammate Shelly Duncan out in left field for the Cleveland Indians. After Damon tried to sell the Yankees on signing him for the year, Damon might be making out better in terms of playing time with the tribe, only having to play behind Grady Sizemore once/if he returns from the DL, where Damon would have been able to spell Mark Texiera at first base occasionally, and could be stuck out in left field in extreme cases for New York (Damon’s preferred destination) but Damon could potentially be an every day member of the Indians lineup between DH appearances, and left field when the platoon split doesn’t favor Duncan.

Damon is not the same man he was in 2008 or 2009, but he is still a productive hitter, and is a capable fielder in the position where most teams have decided to hide their biggest defensive liability. No longer having quite the wheels required to play center field, Damon still has some pop in his bat, and his legs are still able to carry him for a few stolen bases when the situation warrants it. I can’t see Johnny being so much better than Duncan that the tribe tries to flip Duncan for anything of value, though they might try as he’s becoming arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. Damon certainly wants to right the ship after having gotten on base progressively less over the past 4 seasons, though last season Damon proved there’s still some pop in his bat with 16 homers (I said some pop...) and looked to prove he can still wreak havoc on the base paths stealing 19 bases (and getting caught 6 times). Damon might have gotten a bit swing happy last year, seeing his walk rate drop a bit (taking 18 walks less than the previous year and 15 fewer than his career average), but that’s not necessarily going to carry over into this year.

Damon needs to put together a productive year with the tribe to get a crack at the 3000 mark next season, currently sitting 277 hits from the plateau. Given that his hits numbers having stayed pretty consistently around 145-155 for the past few seasons, getting those extra 15-20 walks could make a huge difference in where he signs next year. Damon could be a good signing for a team looking to get better on the cheap, especially in the AL, but I can’t see Damon being the only piece added if the tribe is serious about trying to get into playoff contention this year.

What Can We Expect From Joel Pineiro?

With Pineiro being cut by the Phillies and now being picked up by the Orioles, now seems as good a time as any to look at his career, and see what, if anything, the Os can expect from the 33 year old. Pineiro has a 4.41 career ERA, which is about as pedestrian as they come (this equates to a career ERA+ of 96), but Pineiro has only ever been close to that ERA for a season twice, his 2004 season with the Mariners where he had a 4.67 ERA (98 ERA+) and in 2007 where he split time between Boston and St. Louis finishing  the season strong in St. Louis to lower his ERA for the season to 4.33 (though his ERA+ was a 105 for the year). Looking at Pineiro’s stat sheet he has been perhaps one of the cruelest jokes in baseball. He has either been fairly dominant (5 years with an ERA below 4.00 and 6 with an ERA+ over 100) or absolutely terrible (5 years with an ERA over 5, and an ERA+ of 83 or less). Pineiro has the ability to be a No. 2 starter on most staffs one year, and the next he could have the fans clamoring for his release as loudly as Yankees fans pushed to get rid of A.J. Burnett.

Pineiro’s opportunity for success lies largely on his ability to keep the ball down in the zone. In his best seasons since leaving the fly ball friendly Safeco Field, he has been able to keep his GB/FB ratio around 1.00 or better. Last season aside, his strikeout and walk ratios have been pretty steady, strikeouts hovering between 12 and 14.4% and walks not straying far from 6.5%, so if he can return to those numbers, he could find himself having one less thing to worry about this year.

The Orioles view Pineiro as a long reliever, likely with the first crack at the rotation if someone goes down with an injury, and that might work out for them as an affordable 1 year contract. There’s really nothing to lose for the Orioles who are penciled in to take last place in the AL East this year. There is however, a bunch to gain for Mr. Pineiro. I don’t know that I can see this improving Baltimore’s chances to get out of the basement in the AL East, but they may be looking at Pineiro as a clubhouse addition more than an on the field addition, and if he can produce even 0.5 WAR this season, they’ll be happy enough to have had him aboard.

Pineiro does need to return to form after last season, and as a product of Dave Duncan’s tutelage in St, Louis he can find success with his sinker, he can’t afford to give up too many fly balls with Baltimore, Camden Yards is not exactly a spacious park, and he’ll be seeing a very potent stream of AL East teams this year. For Pineiro to be effective this year though, his defense will have to come up in a big way, which so long as fate keeps the ball away from Mark Reynolds at 3rd base, could very well happen.