Does Schilling's Bloody Sock make him a HoFer?

My father and I discuss baseball frequently.  There are quite a few times that I agree with him.  This is one issue that we strongly disagree over.

Curt Schilling is probably the last big name starting pitcher that I wanted to look at for this upcoming ballot.  What Jack Morris and Andre Dawson represent to the traditionalists, Bert Blyleven and Curt Schilling represent for the SABR crowd.  Here are the viewpoints as I see them:

Good Idea: Curt Schilling was a very underrated pitcher in his career.  He struck out a ton of batters and didn't walk many which gives him the best K/BB in history.  He had a better WHIP than Clemens, and struck batters out at a faster rate than the Rocket.  Rocket may have been more valuable (due to the innings difference, and granted there's a big gap) but Schill was just as good, if not better, in the innings he threw.  His win total isn't high, but that can be attributed to a lot of things, teams with poor run support (esp after the WS run with the Phillies in 93), bad bullpen (Wild Thing Williams was a terrible closer), or just random bad luck.  He's a great choice, and shouldn't have much trouble making it in.

Bad Idea: He didn't throw a ton of innings, only won 216 games and was never really the best pitcher in the league.  His ERA is a tad too high, and was really prone to the long ball.  The innings thing is huge I think.  He was a closer for a bit early on, and again after that injury in the 04 playoffs, but it does hurt his overall value.  One of the big things a starter needs to be able to do is throw a good amount of innings.  A bunch of 5 inning starters hurts a rotation and a team because that increases wear and tear on the bullpen pitchers.  He was a very good pitcher, especially in the post season, but he isn't quite good enough.  Not an all time great.  Sorry.

Verdict: Schilling gets in my Hall of Fame easily, with a score believe it or not nearly equal to Nolan Ryan's.  Now, before everyone jumps on me and thinks I'm saying that Schill was as great as Ryan, take a step back and lets look at them:

Ryan struck out a large amount of batters, but also walked about half as many.  Which gives a slight advantage to Schilling I would think.  Ryan has a better raw ERA, but when you correct it for the home park (remember all the years that Ryan pitched in the big ol Astrodome?) Schilling comes out ahead, but not by much.  Ryan has more wins, but pitched 27 years and averaged 14 a year.  Schilling averaged 13 a year.  Ryan also has more losses a year than Schilling, 13 to 9.  Ryan beats him handily in innings, but the quality is roughly equal to Schillings when you factor everything in.  Schilling doesn't have the no-hitters that Ryan has, but other than that Schilling is Ryan's equal in almost everything but innings (which helps a lot of the non rate stats like K's).  He belongs in without a question.

The Second NL Wild Card and the Teams that Want It

Something of a departure from the AL wild card picture, where all of the teams that are in the wild card race are close enough together that either/both of the spots could change hands at a moment’s notice, the NL is a totally different ballgame. Seven games separate the Braves and the Cardinals, and every team that’s chasing the cards are closer to being .500 teams than they are to being true playoff contenders. Also in a strange turn of events, just about everyone in the hunt for this last playoff spot is facing a reasonably tough schedule down the final stretch with not a single team in the mix having less than 6 games against current playoff bound opponents.

The Cardinals are in line for seven more games against sub par competition before closing out the season with three games against the Nationals and three more against the Reds. The four remaining games against Houston, and three against the Cubbies should have the Redbirds looking good going into that final stretch, and if ever there was a time to try to put some distance between themselves and the pack, it would behoove them to do so now.

The Brewers are two and a half games behind the Cards and have a marginally harder schedule to combat to actually make the playoffs this year, Currently in the midst of a three game set against the even .500 Pirates, they are also facing up against three games with the Reds and a four game set with the Nationals but they close the season with three against Houston and then the Padres, the Brewers need to gain ground during this last tough stretch and hope they can strike while the Cards are closing out the season against two playoff locks.

The Dodgers having split yesterday’s doubleheader are now two behind the Cards for the final playoff spot and aren’t exactly looking at a bunch of pushovers in the next few days to help them make their playoff push. They finish up a three game set against the Nats today followed by three games against the Reds. They get a six game respite from playoff bound opponents with three and three against the Padres and the Rockies but finish the season with a three game set against the Giants who, despite losing Melky Cabrera’s juiced up bat, gone 22 - 9 since the Melk Man’s forced vacation. The Dodgers certainly have enough talent on the team to make it through to the playoffs, but they will have to play their asses off against some stiff competition just to have a shot.

The Phillies are mathematically in the race, and if they had a cushy schedule to close the season, it might be a totally different story here, but with six games against the Nationals and three against the Braves in their last 13 I’m gonna have to call it for Phillies’ fans, there is no postseason this year, at least the Eagles are 2-0 so far.

The Pirates are similarly mathematically still involved but they’ve really only got the next eight games to make up ground before closing the year with three against the Reds and three against the Braves. The Pirates have been streaky enough to rattle off a few wins quickly, but they’ve faded over the second half and they might need another year or two to get over the hump and really make a postseason push.

Given the upcoming schedules for these postseason hopefuls, I don’t see too much reason to write the Cards out of it, honestly the Dodgers are just massively underperforming and while the Brewers have been hot of late (seriously, they haven’t lost two games in a row since before August 20th) it may just be too little too late.