The Second NL Wild Card and the Teams that Want It

Something of a departure from the AL wild card picture, where all of the teams that are in the wild card race are close enough together that either/both of the spots could change hands at a moment’s notice, the NL is a totally different ballgame. Seven games separate the Braves and the Cardinals, and every team that’s chasing the cards are closer to being .500 teams than they are to being true playoff contenders. Also in a strange turn of events, just about everyone in the hunt for this last playoff spot is facing a reasonably tough schedule down the final stretch with not a single team in the mix having less than 6 games against current playoff bound opponents.

The Cardinals are in line for seven more games against sub par competition before closing out the season with three games against the Nationals and three more against the Reds. The four remaining games against Houston, and three against the Cubbies should have the Redbirds looking good going into that final stretch, and if ever there was a time to try to put some distance between themselves and the pack, it would behoove them to do so now.

The Brewers are two and a half games behind the Cards and have a marginally harder schedule to combat to actually make the playoffs this year, Currently in the midst of a three game set against the even .500 Pirates, they are also facing up against three games with the Reds and a four game set with the Nationals but they close the season with three against Houston and then the Padres, the Brewers need to gain ground during this last tough stretch and hope they can strike while the Cards are closing out the season against two playoff locks.

The Dodgers having split yesterday’s doubleheader are now two behind the Cards for the final playoff spot and aren’t exactly looking at a bunch of pushovers in the next few days to help them make their playoff push. They finish up a three game set against the Nats today followed by three games against the Reds. They get a six game respite from playoff bound opponents with three and three against the Padres and the Rockies but finish the season with a three game set against the Giants who, despite losing Melky Cabrera’s juiced up bat, gone 22 - 9 since the Melk Man’s forced vacation. The Dodgers certainly have enough talent on the team to make it through to the playoffs, but they will have to play their asses off against some stiff competition just to have a shot.

The Phillies are mathematically in the race, and if they had a cushy schedule to close the season, it might be a totally different story here, but with six games against the Nationals and three against the Braves in their last 13 I’m gonna have to call it for Phillies’ fans, there is no postseason this year, at least the Eagles are 2-0 so far.

The Pirates are similarly mathematically still involved but they’ve really only got the next eight games to make up ground before closing the year with three against the Reds and three against the Braves. The Pirates have been streaky enough to rattle off a few wins quickly, but they’ve faded over the second half and they might need another year or two to get over the hump and really make a postseason push.

Given the upcoming schedules for these postseason hopefuls, I don’t see too much reason to write the Cards out of it, honestly the Dodgers are just massively underperforming and while the Brewers have been hot of late (seriously, they haven’t lost two games in a row since before August 20th) it may just be too little too late.

Milwaukee Brewers: A Mid-Market Rotation with Mid-Market Mistakes

The Milwaukee Brewers are an interesting team to talk about at this point. They’re not looking good by even the loosest of definitions at the moment, which is anything but a surprise at the moment. The Brew Crew didn’t resign Prince Fielder this offseason and have replaced him in their lineup with a cast of various infielders which has, to state the obvious, not produced nearly as well as Prince would have. I’m not saying that committing 9+ years to a home run hitting blimp was necessarily the right decision, but replacing him with whoever else is still on the roster was certainly the wrong approach. That said Milwaukee probably could have done with upgrading their rotation some, while they have 3 very good starters, they were running with a 4 man rotation from the start, and that just won’t do in the bigs.

Chris Narveson made 2 starts for the Brew Crew early in the year, and has been a below average starter at the back of their rotation for a few years now. Almost fortunately for the Brewers who looked content to keep putting the 30 year old “innings eater” (not exactly great at that either) out there every 5th day, Narveson will be spending the rest of the year recovering from rotator cuff surgery. I don’t feel it’s right to revel in an injury for any player, but this might actually be a good thing for the team as they will be forced to see what someone else within the organization can do while it’s already clear what Narveson is capable of.

Marco Estrada appears to be that someone else. Estrada was pitching in relief for the Brewers early in the season, and much of last year. He doesn’t look to be a significant improvement overall, but with 2 years less experience, he may not have absolutely reached his ceiling yet. So far Estrada has thrown 5 starts, and has successfully eaten innings in 3 of those outings, one of which was a quality start. Estrada’s walk and strikeout numbers are encouraging, as he’s walking fewer than ever before while striking out batters at roughly the same rate as last season. His home run rate is more than a little troubling though. Estrada has given up 9 home runs in 35 innings so far. Estrada is an extreme flyball pitcher, and has seen batters tee off on him in the past. I’d be surprised to see Estrada make any significant changes to his approach, but if he does get closer to his groundball rate from last season he will probably be a good bit less homer prone and could become an effective back of the rotation arm who is cost effective for the mid/small market Brewers.

Randy Wolf has been holding down the fort as a league average pitcher who can really rack up the innings (where most of his value lies), and so far this year has looked like decline has come and taken his familiar brand of mediocrity and pounded it into the ground. Wolf has been neither of the things he’s usually good at, he’s well below league average with an ERA+ of 61 and he’s not eating innings at any particularly admirable clip (42 & ⅓ innings over 8 starts) If Wolf keeps this up, he’ll be putting together his first sub 200 inning effort with the Brewers and could be looking at having the team walk away from his contract option. Wolf’s BABIP is sitting at an eye popping .358, up about 67 points above his career average. What’s most perplexing about this is while his line drive rate is sitting right around his career average, he’s getting more ground balls than ever before and giving up fewer home runs than any time in recent memory. He has however walked 18 batters so far which has also contributed to his 1.795 WHIP. The Wolfman is a veteran who should certainly know how to pitch better than this. I’d look at him to make a few changes and get back to his own personal brand of 4 or 5 starter quality innings. I wouldn’t however be terribly surprised if he really is slipping some, and makes it a real tough call for Brewers brass with his 10 mil option looming at season’s end.

Shawn Marcum has 6 quality starts in his first 8 having thrown 49 rather effective innings for the Brew Crew so far this season. His walk rate is up about 1 walk every 2 innings over last year, though he’s also struck out about 1 more batter per 9 than ever before, so it’s something of a trade off. His WHIP is a respectable 1.245 and is about 90 points off of last year’s mark and is well closer to his career mark. Marcum is having a good year so far, and hasn’t changed much about his approach, his particular brand of flyball pitching seems to be suiting him just fine so far and despite giving up fewer homers than the past few years, he is giving up line drives at a higher than desirable pace (22% of balls in play). That could catch up with him, but he seems to be doing pretty well so far. I’d look at Marcum to try to limit line drives, and that’ll help him keep runners off the base paths and build even further on his strong start to the season.

Yovani Gallardo has started nine games so far and has had 7 quality starts so far. He has had to exit very early twice so far, his first start against a potent St. Louis lineup and yet again against that St. Louis lineup, so far compiling 5 and ⅔ innings and 14 earned runs against the Cards while pitching no less than 6 innings and putting up a quality start against every other opponent he has faced this year. Gallardo has walked a disgusting 4.4 per nine so far, which will have to change if he doesn’t expect for opponents other than the reigning WS champs to to take notice and start teeing off when he gets behind in counts. Aside from his walk rate however Gallardo has more or less been the same guy he’s always been this year. Not giving up a gaudy number of home runs, getting his fair share of strikeouts, and pitching deep enough into games that he shouldn’t be looked at to burn up bullpen arms on a regular basis.

Zack Greinke is putting on a show in his walk year.He has so far only allowed 1 home run in his 9 starts so far, is walking less than 2 per 9 and is striking out more than a batter per inning all to the tune of a pretty well deserved 2.70 ERA Greinke had one rather ugly outing (3 & ⅔ innings 8 ER) against the Cubbies early on but has otherwise only been knocked out of a game before the 6th once Greinke has the same real red flag as Marcum, he gives up an ugly number of line drives (21%) but that’s nothing new for him, and he is much more of a groundball pitcher than really anyone else on this Milwaukee staff, though that’s really just been the last 2 years for him. It appears that Greinke is going to use this season to gear up for his pay day this offseason. I’d look for Greinke’s performance to continue at an impressive (if not quite his current 145 ERA+) level. I wouldn’t exactly be shocked to see the Brewers flip Greinke at the deadline for a good haul if he’s continuing this type of production at the midway point in the season.

The Brewers are a middling team at best across the board and I’m sure it stings them to go from Postseason contenders to keeping the Cubbies company at the bottom of the NL Central, but thems the breaks. I don’t see much reason for the Brewers to pull themselves up from the bottom of their division, but with a division that has gotten very close over the weekend, more surprising things have happened. I’d lean toward seeing them as sellers at the deadline, rather than on the cusp buyers.