Good Idea/Bad Idea: The Great Closer Debate

Yep, two in a day.  I'm on fire!  And if I were, I'd have to call a Fireman.  And in baseball, the term "Fireman" refers to a closer, or a shut down reliever.  Are there any on the ballot for this year?  You betcha! Let's take a look at the controversial idea of Lee Arthur Smith being in the Hall of Fame.

Most of the decision about Lee Arthur has centered around what most people consider to be how to judge relief pitchers.  Currently in the Hall of Fame, there are  5.  Hoyt Wilhelm, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage.  All of them probably deserve to be inducted.  The question people have is does Lee Arthur belong in that group?  A lot of it also comes down to how we plan to use the save stat.  As I've opined on here before, it is a terrible stat.  And Lee Smith led the world in saves until Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera came along and blew his number out of the water.  So how does the argument shake out for and against Lee Arthur?

Good Idea: The fact is that saves are a bad stat and it is very easy to accumulate them over the course of a long career.  But Lee Arthur was a great reliever.  He has a higher K/9 than any other reliever in Cooperstown and the best HR/9 as well.  It's tough to do a full comp on him with other relievers in the hall because there are only the five of them and the RP position has evolved greatly in recent times.  While saves may not be a great stat, he did gain almost 500 which was the most for a long time.  He was a great reliever that shut down offenses.

Bad Idea: He struck out a lot of batters, true, but he also had the fewest innings when compared to the HoF relievers except for Sutter, fewer strikeouts too.  He also walked a lot of guys and had a mediocre WHIP, almost 1.3.  In fact, he never had a season where his WHIP was below 1.1, which means that teams had a lot of opportunities to score against him.  It's a testament that he was able to even get all those saves with the baserunners he was allowing, but the fact remains that he was allowing them at a fairly high clip.  Good reliever, worthy to be part of a good team's pen, but not Hall of Fame worthy.

Verdict: It's hard to do a calculation for relievers because there aren't that many in the Hall of Fame.  But, for what it's worth, his score came to 126, which was 2nd best for a reliever to Eckersley.  I don't know what has kept him out, if it's just that stuff I was talking about at the top about closers and relievers and how effective they are, etc.  I would put him in, especially since it tells the story of how relievers have evolved over the years.  Think about it, the best reliever of the pre-closer era was Wilhelm, and then we had guys like Fingers and Sutter and Gossage give way to guys like Eck and Smith, which led to guys like Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera to be great closers.  And it isn't like he is an indefensible choice, like some people currently in the Hall are.  He's a good choice and should be inducted.

Good Idea Bad Idea: a Hall-Mac Card

You can always count on me to drum up an awful pun.

I'm a McGwire fan.  No amount of steroids or self righteous angst from the writers can make me forget the joy that he brought me in 98 when he hit 70 HR, nor should it.  But, I'm not here to debate whether or not steroids should preclude someone from induction.  I'm here to determine if someone is statistically viable for the HoF.

Good Idea: The man almost single handedly brought people back to baseball and the sport to prominence.  Ripken's streak started it, but I believe that brought back long time fans.  Mac brought people that were new fans to baseball.  The sight of his swing resulting in HR after HR and hitting over 500 ft is incredible to me.
Statistically, people point to his low batting average.  While it's true that he only hit about 260, most of his career that was above league average.  More importantly, since batting average is a terrible stat, he OBP'd 394 for his career, and had an OPS+ of 163.  Think about that for a minute.  For his entire 15 year career, he was roughly better than 63% of the league according to this one decent but crude calculation.  He also had a wOBA of 415 and a wRC+ of 157.  That wRC+ is 11th all time, and 4th best for a right handed hitter, behind Hornsby, Pujols, and Foxx.  He's probably the best pure power right handed hitter of all time, as evidenced by his 325 ISO which trails only Babe Ruth on the all time list.  Put him in.

Bad Idea: We all know that Mac used steroids.  We know that his numbers may be slightly tainted.  I do question how much effect roids have on a player's stats, but also recognize that they may help you play through minor injuries more than you would have been able to without juicing.  It's a tough call and if the writers say they aren't equipped enough to answer those questions then I don't have much of a problem with him not being in the Hall.  Statistically, he was a poor defender at the easiest spot on the diamond, and was never a good baserunner.  Also, the low BA does suggest that he was almost an all or nothing hitter, as his BABIP in his career was 255 (well below league average).  He struck out 20% of the time and only had about 7600 PA.  His career wasn't that long due to injuries (which possibly could be tied to steroids), and there are just too many questions surrounding his numbers to put him in.

Verdict: I'm too biased, so I'm going to let my friend Foment come up with a verdict.  However, I will say that he scores at roughly the same level as a Johnny Mize type player on my list, who was inducted by the VC and should have been in by the writers.  I believe that without roids he'd be in, and I honestly believe he had the talent and smarts to play well.

The Second NL Wild Card and the Teams that Want It

Something of a departure from the AL wild card picture, where all of the teams that are in the wild card race are close enough together that either/both of the spots could change hands at a moment’s notice, the NL is a totally different ballgame. Seven games separate the Braves and the Cardinals, and every team that’s chasing the cards are closer to being .500 teams than they are to being true playoff contenders. Also in a strange turn of events, just about everyone in the hunt for this last playoff spot is facing a reasonably tough schedule down the final stretch with not a single team in the mix having less than 6 games against current playoff bound opponents.

The Cardinals are in line for seven more games against sub par competition before closing out the season with three games against the Nationals and three more against the Reds. The four remaining games against Houston, and three against the Cubbies should have the Redbirds looking good going into that final stretch, and if ever there was a time to try to put some distance between themselves and the pack, it would behoove them to do so now.

The Brewers are two and a half games behind the Cards and have a marginally harder schedule to combat to actually make the playoffs this year, Currently in the midst of a three game set against the even .500 Pirates, they are also facing up against three games with the Reds and a four game set with the Nationals but they close the season with three against Houston and then the Padres, the Brewers need to gain ground during this last tough stretch and hope they can strike while the Cards are closing out the season against two playoff locks.

The Dodgers having split yesterday’s doubleheader are now two behind the Cards for the final playoff spot and aren’t exactly looking at a bunch of pushovers in the next few days to help them make their playoff push. They finish up a three game set against the Nats today followed by three games against the Reds. They get a six game respite from playoff bound opponents with three and three against the Padres and the Rockies but finish the season with a three game set against the Giants who, despite losing Melky Cabrera’s juiced up bat, gone 22 - 9 since the Melk Man’s forced vacation. The Dodgers certainly have enough talent on the team to make it through to the playoffs, but they will have to play their asses off against some stiff competition just to have a shot.

The Phillies are mathematically in the race, and if they had a cushy schedule to close the season, it might be a totally different story here, but with six games against the Nationals and three against the Braves in their last 13 I’m gonna have to call it for Phillies’ fans, there is no postseason this year, at least the Eagles are 2-0 so far.

The Pirates are similarly mathematically still involved but they’ve really only got the next eight games to make up ground before closing the year with three against the Reds and three against the Braves. The Pirates have been streaky enough to rattle off a few wins quickly, but they’ve faded over the second half and they might need another year or two to get over the hump and really make a postseason push.

Given the upcoming schedules for these postseason hopefuls, I don’t see too much reason to write the Cards out of it, honestly the Dodgers are just massively underperforming and while the Brewers have been hot of late (seriously, they haven’t lost two games in a row since before August 20th) it may just be too little too late.

Molina's Mistake

Yadier Molina is my favorite catcher.  No joke, I think he’s great.  I’ve never seen someone fire missiles like he can from behind the plate.  And, over the past few years he has turned into a decent hitter and is having his best year currently with the stick.  I rarely can find fault with a catcher providing tremendous defense and hitting 313/366/490 with a wRC+ of 138.

But...

Top of the 9th in San Diego, NO ONE OUT, runner at second, he drops down a sacrifice bunt.  Good old fashioned NL style smart ball right?  Right?

No.  It isn’t smart or the right play in that situation.  Why?  Well I’m glad you asked.  Here’s the situation:

1) You’re on the road down by one.  You can’t play to tie on the road, you have to play to take the lead.  Especially with as poor and leaky as the Cardinals’ pen has been this year.  If you get a chance to take a lead, you go for it, but not taking the chance to tie.

2) The runner is already at second base, so getting him to third with one out is stupid.  With no outs and a runner at second, the run expectancy is 1.170.  You’re almost guaranteed to score more than one run.  With a runner at third and one out, the expectancy is 0.989, meaning that you are most likely but not nearly guaranteed to score the one run, but a big inning isn’t nearly as likely.  So, you’re wasting a precious out, one of three remaining mind you, for...nothing.

3) Adron Chambers came in to pinch run for Allen Craig following his leadoff double.  That means that even if the game gets tied, you’re down a big run producing bat in Craig which will make it way too difficult to take the lead in the later innings.

4) Molina is one of the best hitters on the team, and it’s a team that is struggling to score runs lately.  Taking the bat out of his hands is like telling one of your great pilots in the air force to become a Kamikaze bomber.  Or like taking the sword out of your best knight and tell him to protect a lesser knight with his chest.

Following the game, Molina and Matheny said that the bunt call was Molina’s.  Matheny said that he has earned that right.  Ugh.  Look, Yaddy, buddy, you haven’t earned that right.  Albert Pujols had earned the right to call plays on his own because he is a no doubt first ballot hall of fame player and hits the ball hard and well.  He has done that for the better part of 12 years now.  You, my squatting friend, have been a good hitter for only 4 or 5 years now.  You have NOT earned that right.  But with the boneheaded moves that Mike Matheny has made this year (might do a post on that later), I can see why you would do that.  But please, grow a brain and never do it again.  I’m begging you.  I still love you, but I might have to divorce you if you ever try something like that again.

I hate it when this happens

We’ve discussed BABIP a lot on this blog.  Mostly, I’ve used it for pitchers.  Well, it does apply to hitters too.  Let’s take a look at the Cards shortstop Rafael Furcal.  First off, the Cardinals have been struggling mightily since Mid-May due to, in no small part, a lot of injuries they weren’t expecting to deal with, and the fill in guys just aren’t that good.  This is causing the need for some players, like Furcal and David Freese, for playing more games without a rest which with spotty injury histories is going to drag them down a bit.  With that said, back to Raffy.

Through April of 2012, Furcal had a BABIP of 364 (slash line of 315/384/427).  In May, he had a BABIP drop down to 358, but his numbers stayed high because he started hitting for more power (349/397/486).  Now, in 12 games this month he has a BABIP of 136, with a line of 140/170/200.  Career wise, he has a BABIP of 313 and now for the year he has a BABIP of 315.  At some point he was bound for a stretch like this to make things even out.  He’s gotten on base once in his last 5 games.  It’s a big reason for the Cards struggles.  Raffy hasn’t had much in his tank this month.  He could probably use a day off or two soon.

That’s all for now.  More snarkiness to come soon.  Or more analysis.  Haven’t decided what’s more fun to post on here.

St Louis Cardinals: Can Their Rotation Help Them Repeat?

The St Louis Cardinals are the reigning WS Champs, and look in some ways to be stronger this year than last. That’s something of a strange statement given that they lost Albert Pujols to the Angels via free agency. However with largely the same team returning and very strong contributions from new acquisition Carlos Beltran, and an increase in productivity for David Freese the Cards seem to be doing just fine offensively. So, about that rotation...

Lance Lynn has come out of the gate hot in only his 2nd year in the bigs with 6 quality starts in his first 9 attempts. Lynn has faltered a bit lately, with his last 3 starts being his weakest efforts, though two of them were quality starts none were more than 6 innings, and he gave up 3 or more runs in each of them. This could signal something of a return to earth for the 25 year old who has been almost too good to be true for the Cards so far. Lynn’s 34 & ⅔ innings from last year don’t make the greatest set of benchmarks, but he’s struck out 52 batters so far in 56 & ⅔ innings, which is good for over 8 per 9, which is only a little bit lower than his rate from last year, and he’s walked 19 batters so far, good for a about 3 per 9. Lynn is doing pretty well with his overall stat line, giving up very few homers, and getting just better than 50% ground balls with 17% of balls in play going for line drives. Unless his dominant start is as much a product of the league’s unfamiliarity with him, he’s clearly got the stuff, and the makeup to be a successful pitcher in the majors.

Jake Westbrook has looked... great in the early going, he has looked a bit more hittable through May, but has still been relatively reliable over his starts this month (last night’s 6 run dumpster fire excluded). He has managed to keep his walk rate quite reasonable having walked only 16 batters in 56 innings, while his strikeout rate is at a 10 year high at 6.1 per 9. He has above all else been able to avoid the long ball, having given up only 3 homers in his 9 starts. Having always been a groundball pitcher, and this year is no exception, he’s garnered over 60% ground balls and has limited line drives to only 13% of balls in play. This all bodes well for Westy, who despite a down year last year, and a track record of being less than exceptional, could certainly be looking to repeat something like his ‘08 performance. Westbrook is looking good in a lot of regards, and there’s very little reason for me to believe that he’s absolutely going to fall off. Of course as he’s not a strikeout pitcher he can get into trouble giving up a lot of contact, but conservatively it looks like Westbrook is going to turn in a solid if unspectacular year, probably a bit better than league average when all is said and done.

Adam Wainwright looked to be struggling to shake off the rust after a year on the shelf but has flashed a bit of brilliance periodically, including his complete game shutout of the Padres in his most recent start. His strikeout rate is good at 8.4 per 9 though his walk rate is up (marginally) at 2.9 per 9 and he’s giving up a little more than a homer per 9 which, is atypical of Waino to say the least. He’s getting ground balls more than ever before, but not by a huge margin, and his Line drive percentage (18% of all balls in play) is pretty much in line with his career line. Coming back from Tommy John surgery isn’t an easy road for most pitchers, so it’s to be expected that Waino has some rough starts while he re-adjusts to pitching in the majors. Overall he looks to be turning the corner with that shiny new elbow ligament, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a few hiccups here and there. Waino is better than his ERA indicates so far, but he’s not quite back up to All-star/Cy Young level yet.

Jaime Garcia is solid, if unspectacular, but has actually looked quite steady so far. He has amassed 6 quality starts in his 9 attempts, and has only given up more than 3 runs twice so far. Garcia has been an effective innings eater for St. Louis so far, and that’s not an unappealing quality for the back of your rotation. in 58 & ⅓ innings so far he has struck out 43 and walked 15, so while he’s not walking anybody, he isn’t striking them out either. He is the owner of a rather ugly 1.406 WHIP so far, and has managed to stay out of more trouble than most who are letting batters so readily take to the base paths by only giving up 1  homer so far. His BABIP is an absolutely disgusting .361, and while last year it was .324, a 40 point jump is quite a bit, especially given that he’s more effectively limiting line drives (only 16% of balls in play) than over the past 2 years. Garcia might be a victim of some less than stellar luck to this point, and could look to see his WHIP drop a bit as that BABIP corrects itself. Garcia may despite a diminished strikeout rate be able to provide better value to the Cards this season if he is able to keep his line drive and flyball rates at or near their current levels.

Kyle Lohse has looked like something of the staff ace so far, and while that’s not necessarily fair to throw on Lohse, who’s never been looked upon as deserving of such a role before, his productivity in the early going has certainly been a boon to the Cards. Unfortunately for Lohse and the cards he’s been having some trouble making it through the 6th inning this month, having only done so once, when he was stung for 5 runs against the Cubbies. Lohse has been able to limit damage effectively, and has the exact same WHIP now that he finished last season with (1.168) though that’s due this year to more hits and less walks than last season, he’s been very good about keeping the ball in the yard so far having given up only 4 homers over his first 9 starts. Lohse looks to be more lucky than good overall so far, he’s never been a groundball pitcher, and this year is no exception. He’s giving up 22% of balls in play for line drives, which is not far off of last season’s mark at all. I’d worry about Lohse’s ability to return to the kind of effective pitching he put together last month, and he may revert to the type of ERA that we expect out of him more than what he has provided so far.

Chris Carpenter has been sidelined with a shoulder injury all year and hasn’t made a single start for the Cards this season. The glass ace has been effective over the past 3 years, and was a huge boon to the Cards while Wainwright was out last season, but looks to be back to old habits. With any luck this is a flukey injury and Carp can return around the All-star break and provide a bit of a pick me up for the Cards who are already seeing pretty solid production from the rotation, but giving the team leverage to move someone for a need elsewhere in the team is never a bad thing.

Overall the Cards pitching staff is ranking in the middle of the pack for the NL, but it looks more or less like that can be attributed to a less than perfect bullpen, which looks at a cursory glance to be a target for improvement. Jason Motte is pitching effectively, as are Mitchell Boggs and  Marc Rzepczynski (I understand after having finally typed that why you folks refer to him as “Scrabbles”), however the rest of the ‘pen has not fared quite as well so far. That said, the team is sitting on a very solid rotation, and has the best offense in the National League so far with 59 total homers and 240 runs. They also rank first in batting average, OBP, and SLG. They have been taking their walks and stealing bases effectively as well (6th and 5th respectively), so regardless of what could be happening with Pujols, the team is scoring runs just fine. With their very effective rotation, and their dominant offense (despite rather significant losses), the Cards are in position to make a nice post season run.