I hate it when this happens

We’ve discussed BABIP a lot on this blog.  Mostly, I’ve used it for pitchers.  Well, it does apply to hitters too.  Let’s take a look at the Cards shortstop Rafael Furcal.  First off, the Cardinals have been struggling mightily since Mid-May due to, in no small part, a lot of injuries they weren’t expecting to deal with, and the fill in guys just aren’t that good.  This is causing the need for some players, like Furcal and David Freese, for playing more games without a rest which with spotty injury histories is going to drag them down a bit.  With that said, back to Raffy.

Through April of 2012, Furcal had a BABIP of 364 (slash line of 315/384/427).  In May, he had a BABIP drop down to 358, but his numbers stayed high because he started hitting for more power (349/397/486).  Now, in 12 games this month he has a BABIP of 136, with a line of 140/170/200.  Career wise, he has a BABIP of 313 and now for the year he has a BABIP of 315.  At some point he was bound for a stretch like this to make things even out.  He’s gotten on base once in his last 5 games.  It’s a big reason for the Cards struggles.  Raffy hasn’t had much in his tank this month.  He could probably use a day off or two soon.

That’s all for now.  More snarkiness to come soon.  Or more analysis.  Haven’t decided what’s more fun to post on here.

Aura, Pinstripes and Pettitte

Andy Pettitte.  “Mr. Game 2” (isn’t that a dumb name?).  A man that has “the aura”.  It’s so powerful that “ Perceived or not, his teammates believe in it, like they once believed in the likes of Clemens and Cone.”  First off, if you don’t believe you have a damn good shot at winning when Clemens was on the mound for most of his career, you’re an idiot.  Second, there’s nothing to this “aura” crap.  Why is it that every guy that puts on those pinstripes and does well has an “aura”?  Did Pettitte not have said aura in Houston, where he pitched pretty well?  Third, he’s having a decent year and helping stabilize a shaky New York rotation that really has just CC Sabathia and average at best junk after.  But, let's not get ahead of ourselves. 

For the year, Andy has a K-rate of 8.1, BB-rate of 1.8, a WHIP of 1.009 and all are better than his career numbers by a decent margin (6.6 and 2.8 and 1.353 respectively).  It’s possible that at age (almost) 40 he’s learned to be a better pitcher.  But, like every other pitcher that seems to be doing well for a short amount of time or poorly for a short amount of time and sports writers need to acknowledge it, his BABIP is unbelievably low.  Career he has a BABIP of 312.  This year?  Try 253.  That’s a very very large gap.  And, that will probably come up quite a bit which will make that shiny WHIP go back to his usual and he’ll be the regular ol’ 117 ERA+ Andy Pettite that we all know and have some affection for.  And if he doesn’t, it’ll be the luckiest thing this year.  More so than Baltimore being in the lead of the AL East in June.  And that’s just weird!

New York Yankees - Looking at the Rotation

Alright, time to wrap up the AL East. It’s time to look at the Yankees rotation. Truth be told, I was dragging my feet about this one, hoping against hope that the rotation would go through one stellar turn before I wrote this, and in the end... didn’t happen. So here we are: a staff that was expected to be anchored by CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda has been the exception to the rule that good pitching wins ball games. The defending AL East champs have gotten almost no value out of their starting rotation so far and if it weren’t for a stellar bullpen it’d be easy to see the Yanks doing no better than the dumpster fire that has been the Boston Red Sox so far.

Sabathia has been ugly over his first 4 starts, though his WHIP, walk rate, and strikeout rates have all been solid, he’s giving up home runs at about twice his normal pace. Despite being 31 years old Sabathia is in his 12th big league season. With all of his peripherals looking pretty good, his ERA will likely start to follow. As is the case for all of the Yankees pitchers, his BABIP is exceedingly high, and if last season is any indication, it could well stay that way.

Kuroda is going to experience some rough starts as he adjusts to a much more potent division and away from the very pitcher friendly parks of the NL West. Kuroda has been up and down in his 4 starts, pitching very well against the Angels, and pitching well enough to get a win almost any other day of the week against the Rangers and their new phenom Yu Darvish. He has however also had two very rough starts. As Kuroda settles in he should make adjustments to the AL. Expecting his numbers from last season would be unrealistic, but expecting to see some balance of the two pitchers he’s been so far is very plausable.

Phil Hughes has not looked good so far, going less than 3 innings in his most recent start, and compiling an ugly (7.88) ERA so far. Hughes’ fastball has been moving well, but his changeup isn’t very far along, and he’s been leaving his curveball up and very hittable so far. Unfortunately for Hughes as noted at River Ave Blues, a starting pitcher can not survive on one pitch. His BABIP is very high, more so than the team average by a fair bit but Hughes seems to give up hits to the outfield in droves. He needs to work on getting the ball down in the zone  if he expects to still be in the rotation at mid-season.

Ivan Nova has been the most consistent Yankee starter so far, and that is due in large part to what appears to be absolutely pinpoint control so far. He’s walking less than 1 batter per game, and striking out more than 1 per inning. He’s giving up a lot of hits, but his BABIP is sitting at a very robust .389, and that likely will fall if he is willing to relinquish some of the flashy stats for more ground balls.Nova’s giving up more fly balls and more line drives than last year, which are likely coming from a more strikeout friendly pitching approach. Nova hasn’t been unhittable, but he’s been very good so far, so it’s hard to say he needs to start looking to induce more ground balls, though it appears he can certainly turn that on if he has to.

Freddy Garcia has been worse than Hughes so far, and a lot of that looks to be his command failing him. Garcia isn’t a fireballer, he lives on the corners of the plate with nothing but smoke and mirrors. If Garcia can find his control there’s no reason he can’t perform as well as he did last year. Garcia’s BABIP is extraordinarily high sitting at .419 which spells disaster for a contact pitcher. Asking for him to return to last season’s 3.62 ERA might be a bit hopeful, but he can certainly pitch better than he has so far, and for his own sake he’ll have to with Andy Pettite likely to make his big league return in about two weeks. Garcia’s control is the X factor here, if he can start locating pitches he’ll start seeing much better results but at the moment his command is terrifyingly inconsistent.

As a bonus: Andy Pettite has been pitching pretty well in his minor league appearances trying to ramp up to 100 pitches. He has been locating balls very well keeping near a 3:1 strike to ball ratio so far. Pettite is not going to inject any youth into the rotation, but there is very little to say about decline over his 16 major league seasons, there may be some rust but Pettite’s return might be just what the Yankees need to start reversing their rotation woes.

As I said in the opening, the Yankees are the exception that proves the rule, for about 5 innings per game, they’ve received the worst pitching in the league, but have been able to overcome that and currently hold a 10 - 8 record. Jeter’s strong start has helped mask an otherwise unspectacular start for most of the lineup, and without major contributions from the bullpen, the Yanks would not be in a position to compete right now. I’d look for the rotation to turn it around, or for Cashman and Girardi to start shaking things up.

Writer Acknowledges Mistake, Publishes Article Anyway

Take it away, Joel Sherman!

Specifically the part where he's talking about CC Sabathia.  Look at this section here:

Not counting the playoffs, Sabathia made 91 Yankee starts through last July 26, going 55-20 with a 3.08 ERA and a .635 OPS against. In 12 starts since, he is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and a .855 OPS against. He has been particularly bedeviled by homers (.62 per nine innings before/1.45 since) and righty hitters (.653 OPS before/.928 since); both of which suggest he has not been as meticulous or overpowering in this period.

There's no denying that he's right that CC had a rough August and September last year.  His ERA and WHIP both spiked, but there's one thing he didn't realize (since he did cite his opponent's OPS, I'm guessing he did at least do SOME research).  His BABIP against skyrocketed.  In that timeframe, his BABIP against was almost 400!  Isn't it likely, nay probable, that some of his struggles were due to bad luck on balls hit in play which pitchers have very little control over?  I mean, the Yankee infield isn't known for defense too much, no matter what some people think.  It's not terrible, but it's also just OK at best I think (most dWAR's agree with me on that).  That's going to contribute to higher BABIPs some too.  His HR rate went up, but his walk rate and strikeout rates remained good.  He'll be fine going forward.


So...what really is the problem Mr. Sherman?

Maybe it is a small sample size or just April now.

Thank you.  Now, why were you writing this again?