Yankees Trade Needs, Wants, and Realities

It’s been a while, and we’ve discussed the trade market in general, and a few specific trade possibilities, but I’mma go ahead and look at the Yankees needs and wants. I have to stress my bias here, if these are less than perfectly logical trades, so be it, I have my allegiances, and I’m being upfront about them. It’s pretty common amongst Yankees fans to overvalue our farm system, so I’ll try to stray away from that, and it’s been said repeatedly that we as a fanbase feel entitled to winning, entitled to having the best of everything, no matter the cost.

I’m going to assume that what Brian Cashman says means more than placating the media, and that he doesn’t want to A) cripple the farm system or B) put the team in a position to be over the luxury tax threshold in 2014. So, knowing all that there are a few areas of “need” which is a term I’m forced to use loosely given that the team is in first place and owns the best record in baseball. In the short term, the yanks need a third baseman. No matter how much I like Eric Chavez, he’s a great backup, solid defense, productive bat, some power, but with all that comes the fragility that kept him from being a superstar. Behind him there’s Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez, and Ramiro Pena within the organization, all offering something but not the ability to lessen the blow of a month+ without Alex Rodriguez. There’s room to upgrade at catcher as well, I like Russell Martin and I want him to start performing like he’s able to, but right now he’s calling a good game, but he’s essentially a guaranteed out against righties.There’s also room to upgrade the bullpen in light of Mariano Rivera’s injury and the general (Insert handedness) One Out GuY nature of the bulk of the ‘pen. 4 days ago I would have likely argued that adding an outfielder would have been beneficial as well, but after trading D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar for Ichiro Suzuki I think that’s reasonably well covered, though his bat may not be what it once was, he still has speed, and plays great defense, he’s more or less Brett Gardner with a modified howitzer for an arm (A Futurama reference, in a sports blog, does anyone else appreciate this?) at this point in his career.

the third base market is fairly thin, my knee jerk reaction was to say Ty Wigginton, he’s versatile, right handed, and has some power, but the Phillies have already shot that one down. Hanley Ramirez would have also been an option, but another prima donna in New York might be a bit much. Chase Headley is an option, in that he’s both good, and available, as well Aramis Ramirez is a possible fit. The yanks don’t need a long term third baseman, they are, for better or worse, A-rod is under contract for several more years, and making him a full time DH and part time fielder just doesn’t seem likely at the moment. so anyone like Headley or Ramirez would likely be acquired with trading them after the season in mind. Strategically, Headley could be a great fit, he’s young, affordable, has shown moderate power in the spacious Petco park, and plays solid defense. The biggest draw to getting, then flipping Headley would be the ability to potentially acquire a cost controllable pitcher for the 28 year old. Prying Headley away from the Padres would be a tricky proposition given the state of the Yankees farm system. Likely they would have to give up a number of prospects of some value, and at least one of the “can’t miss” prospects like Mason Williams, Manny Banuelos, or Dellin Betances would be part of that package.

As for catchers, the goal wouldn’t be to replace Martin, but to provide him a better platoon partner than Chris Stewart, though Francisco Cervelli can do that just fine. Catchers are tricky to trade mid-season, they have to build a rapport with the pitchers they work with, need to know not only what they like to throw, but how they’re comfortable operating. It’s a tall order to join a team in the midst of a pennant race, remain productive at the plate, and learn to effectively handle no less than 11 different pitchers. There are certainly good catchers on bad teams, though they all come with some caveats. while Joe Mauer would be a great catcher to acquire, he’s solid behind the plate, and he’s got a great bat for a catcher he did miss ½ of last year with an injury, and he is on a long term contract, so if his oversized (for a catcher) frame starts to break down, the yanks would be saddled with that. Knowing all of these things, there’s also no particular indication that Mauer is on the trading block, though the yanks could potentially deal some of their minor league pitching talent to entice the Twins who’ve got slightly less than no pitching at the major league level. Kansas City could potentially be enticed into giving up Salvador Perez, though overpaying for an unproven talent would be a near certainty, if the trade panned out, Perez would be a solid cost controlled addition. There is however no indication that he’s available, nor that at 6’3” he’ll be able to stay at catcher for his whole career. The Brew crew has two fairly productive, controllable catchers in Jonathan Lucroy and Martin Maldonaldo, and could potentially be talked into letting one of them leave. John Jaso could also be available at the right price given that he’s expendable with both Miguel Olivo and Jesus Montero in the fray, though the Mariners may prefer to keep Jaso with an eye to Montero’s future as a catcher being questioned. It has been mentioned that Carlos Ruiz of the Phillies would be a good fit, and given that they’re selling off pieces and Ruiz has an expiring contract I tend to agree, though for less than 1 year of Ruiz who has been tearing the cover off the ball this year the yanks would likely pay a king’s ransom. There just might not really be room to upgrade at catcher aside from letting Cervelli get his hacks in rather than stewart. He’s not exactly going to dominate pitching in the major leagues, but he calls a good game, he can hit a little, and having him spell Martin for 2 out of every 5 might just help Martin get his head on straight and start producing at the plate.

The market for relief pitching is pretty grim, most of the teams that are out of contention have either very young bullpens or very bad bullpens, in the former case the team trying to get a reliever is likely to have to give up a minor leaguer with some serious potential, and in the latter case, why bother? With that said, I tend to like pitchers leaving Colorado, if you can pitch effectively there, you can pitch effectively anywhere. You’re pitching in one of the most offensively friendly stadiums in the sport, and many breaking pitches don’t break as well there as they do closer to sea level. I’d be interested in Matt Belisle or Josh Roenicke if either is available, and failing that Shawn Camp is a relatively appealing option in his own right. The question is now, what are they worth? Roenicke is probably the toughest to acquire, though the Rox also say they’re not interested in moving Belisle either. I’d suspect that to get anyone really worth having, the yankees would have to give up something valuable from the farm, I’d be somewhat inclined to wait this one out, I think that Joba Chamberlain’s eventual return, and the prospect of Mariano Rivera being ready to pitch again before the postseason (nevermind) will be enough of a shot in the arm for the ‘pen, especially if David Phelps can keep producing like he has been.

Overall, I think that while a third baseman might be a viable trade option, I don’t know that if I were in Brian Cashman’s shoes I’d be too thrilled with what’s available. The Catching market is not friendly, everyone that’s an upgrade over Martin/Stewart is going to be cost prohibitive. I only really see Shawn Camp as an option as far as relief pitchers go unless someone begins shopping their closer at a discount price ASAP. I don’t personally believe that Cashman is interested in overpaying for anything short of greatness, and while the Montero for Michael Pineda deal hasn’t panned out so far, I seriously doubt that Cashman is in the habit of trading big value for very little return, and with that in mind I don’t really see any big moves for the Yankees between now and the deadline.

Writer Acknowledges Mistake, Publishes Article Anyway

Take it away, Joel Sherman!

Specifically the part where he's talking about CC Sabathia.  Look at this section here:

Not counting the playoffs, Sabathia made 91 Yankee starts through last July 26, going 55-20 with a 3.08 ERA and a .635 OPS against. In 12 starts since, he is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA and a .855 OPS against. He has been particularly bedeviled by homers (.62 per nine innings before/1.45 since) and righty hitters (.653 OPS before/.928 since); both of which suggest he has not been as meticulous or overpowering in this period.

There's no denying that he's right that CC had a rough August and September last year.  His ERA and WHIP both spiked, but there's one thing he didn't realize (since he did cite his opponent's OPS, I'm guessing he did at least do SOME research).  His BABIP against skyrocketed.  In that timeframe, his BABIP against was almost 400!  Isn't it likely, nay probable, that some of his struggles were due to bad luck on balls hit in play which pitchers have very little control over?  I mean, the Yankee infield isn't known for defense too much, no matter what some people think.  It's not terrible, but it's also just OK at best I think (most dWAR's agree with me on that).  That's going to contribute to higher BABIPs some too.  His HR rate went up, but his walk rate and strikeout rates remained good.  He'll be fine going forward.


So...what really is the problem Mr. Sherman?

Maybe it is a small sample size or just April now.

Thank you.  Now, why were you writing this again?

Johnny Damon Joins The Tribe

    Looks like Johnny Damon, self professed “idiot”, world series champion, and (potentially) the next member of the 3000 hit club will be replacing former Yankees teammate Shelly Duncan out in left field for the Cleveland Indians. After Damon tried to sell the Yankees on signing him for the year, Damon might be making out better in terms of playing time with the tribe, only having to play behind Grady Sizemore once/if he returns from the DL, where Damon would have been able to spell Mark Texiera at first base occasionally, and could be stuck out in left field in extreme cases for New York (Damon’s preferred destination) but Damon could potentially be an every day member of the Indians lineup between DH appearances, and left field when the platoon split doesn’t favor Duncan.

Damon is not the same man he was in 2008 or 2009, but he is still a productive hitter, and is a capable fielder in the position where most teams have decided to hide their biggest defensive liability. No longer having quite the wheels required to play center field, Damon still has some pop in his bat, and his legs are still able to carry him for a few stolen bases when the situation warrants it. I can’t see Johnny being so much better than Duncan that the tribe tries to flip Duncan for anything of value, though they might try as he’s becoming arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. Damon certainly wants to right the ship after having gotten on base progressively less over the past 4 seasons, though last season Damon proved there’s still some pop in his bat with 16 homers (I said some pop...) and looked to prove he can still wreak havoc on the base paths stealing 19 bases (and getting caught 6 times). Damon might have gotten a bit swing happy last year, seeing his walk rate drop a bit (taking 18 walks less than the previous year and 15 fewer than his career average), but that’s not necessarily going to carry over into this year.

Damon needs to put together a productive year with the tribe to get a crack at the 3000 mark next season, currently sitting 277 hits from the plateau. Given that his hits numbers having stayed pretty consistently around 145-155 for the past few seasons, getting those extra 15-20 walks could make a huge difference in where he signs next year. Damon could be a good signing for a team looking to get better on the cheap, especially in the AL, but I can’t see Damon being the only piece added if the tribe is serious about trying to get into playoff contention this year.

The Bullpen: Where the 6th Starter Goes to Keep His Job

There are two spots on a team where pitchers can make money: Starting, and Closing. The middle innings (say 6th through 8th on any given day) are reserved for the guys who’ve been in the minors too long, or are trying to become closers, or are up to help save the guys already in the ‘pen after a few 12 inning games. Something that’s becoming pretty prevalent is the attempt to convert young closers/set-up men into starters.

The reasons for this are numerous. If you can be dominant for one or two innings with 2 pitches, think how great you’ll be if you develop that third pitch you didn’t really need in AAA? Most one or two inning relievers rely on a standard set of pitches, the four-seam fastball and a slider, or maybe a four-seam fastball and a splitter, or in rare cases a four-seam fastball, and a cut fastball. Few late inning relievers use a big curveball or a changeup. These are the pitches that they’re ultimately being asked to perfect so that they can join the rotation, and rake in the cash.

The Yankees have tried to convert Joba Chamberlain back into a starter after an incredible run as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera, The Red Sox are currently hoping against hope that Daniel Bard will solve some of the woes associated with their rotation, and Neftali Feliz is filling the same role for the Rangers. It’s not that these teams don’t think that the pitchers should be in the bullpen, it’s the ever present “what if” factor. What if I’m squandering a future ace as my set-up man? What if my closer could turn into a No. 3 in my rotation? What if we mix and match relievers to fill in the 8th this year?

The two biggest things that weigh on managers and GMs making these decisions are simple: There’s no long term repercussions to trying, and there are, at any time 20+ pitchers who can fill the 7th or 8th inning for any given team between their farm system, waiver claims, various free agents, and even more available for the cost of an infielder at AAA who’s likely to only see much time as a defensive replacement. With so little to lose, and so much to gain, it’s no wonder teams have decided to use the best of their bullpens to try to make up the worst of their rotations. The players are happy because if it pans out, they could be in line for a pretty substantial raise, and if not they’ll slot right back in at the back end of the bullpen, no harm no foul. The teams are happy because they know that persistence will eventually find them gold despite really just digging around in their own junk drawer.

There’s a very real notion that the closer is one of the most important pitchers on any given team, and that to a certain degree is true, however saying that you need a top flight closer simply is not. Many teams will have a “closer by committee” throughout a large portion of the season, whether due to their closer developing an injury, or their closer at the onset of the season being generally ineffective. The Toronto Blue Jays last year finished 81-81, an even .500 record, with Frank Francisco sporting a 3.55 ERA, despite that unsightly (by closer’s standards) ERA, Francisco only blew 4 saves during the course of the season. He would have likely lost favor with the team much faster had he been given the opportunity to close more games, but he received only 21 save opportunities. Along with Francisco, Toronto “utilized” Jon Rauch as their closer. Rauch racked up 16 save opportunities, while converting 11 of them with a hefty 4.85 ERA. Despite this, the team still finished with an even record, in what is generally accepted as the toughest division in baseball, their record would have been good enough for 2nd place in the AL Central, and given an easier schedule in the Central division, would likely have been much better. Toronto’s woes last season were as much about who they were playing against as they were about who they sent out to play the game.

The closer is a luxury many teams don’t want to do without, but a luxury none the less.

The Value of Hindsight

You know that moment after your lefty specialist gives up a three run homer to David Ortiz/Jim Thome/Jason Giambi/Prince Fielder/Adrian Gonzalez/Carlos Pena/Ryan Howard and you scream at your TV that your manager is some type of giant idiot? Yeah, let’s stop doing that. That’s not to say that you shouldn’t question your manager, but managing 2 plays behind the game is a totally different beast than managing in the moment, largely in that you know exactly what not to do.

As an example of when it’s appropriate to question your manager, Joe Girardi looked to be provoking fate last night with Freddy Garcia last night, Garcia was gassed, and his command wasn’t there through most of his 4.2 innings last night. Sure Garcia’s a veteran, and he should be able to get out of a jam or two, but when you’re routinely missing the plate by over a foot, and your spot by well more than that, it’s time to come out. Garcia’s selective stat line from last night (4.2IP, 3ER, 3K, 3BB) only illuminates his trouble spotting his pitches. Looking at some other stats, he had 5 wild pitches, and a WHIP of 1.50 in less than 5 innings of play. His command wasn’t there, and a wild pitch in the 5th gave Robert Andino a chance to jog in from 3rd. Girardi second guessed himself, walking out to the mound, and making a near immediate about face rather than calling to the ‘pen, and ended up putting his team in a 4-1 hole because of it. Everyone watching saw Freddy was done, laboring to 98 pitches. There was no doubt that a pitching change was coming, but most fans had to expect the change earlier.

However, had Boone Logan given up a solo shot in the 9th to end the game, it would have been unfair to hammer Girardi for going with the lefty on lefty split. There’s no reason to assume that your manager is perfect, but calling for him to be fired if he pinch hits for your No. 9 hitter and it doesn’t pan out is just as foolish.

Curse of Cervelli? Really?!?!

I don't know how many interrobangs I can get away with in a blog title, but I think that deserves it.


Look, I am an honest man.  My screen-name on here may sound cocky to some, but I'm just trying to stay cool, rational, and logical.  When people don't do that in regards to baseball, I get angry.  And articles like this can get me angry.


It's called: "Did the Yankees suffer the Curse of Cervelli in Games 1 and 2?" and is written by Jon Heyman.  I like Jon Heyman, I think he provides some decent discussion on MLB Network and I do like reading him on twitter.  But come on, a curse?  Made by a backup catcher?


Lets just get this over with.


There is one obvious, logical explanation for why the Yankees started 0-2, and that is that they played an excellent team in the Tampa Bay Rays, and they were outplayed by the Rays. The other explanation is a bit more fanciful: Could it be the Curse of Cervelli?
Why didn't you stop writing after the first sentence?  That would have been easier on the both of us.
For those that don't know (by those I mean the less than 10 people who are reading this several day old blog), Francisco Cervelli is a backup catcher for the Yankees that they felt so highly of that they traded upcoming prospect Jesus Montero for Miguel Pineda (see Foment's post below) to make room on the roster.  I'm sure that at some point Heyman will explain how a backup catcher in the first two games of the year will have an effect on the outcome of a game.


The Yankees were only doing what they felt was prudent when they acquired backup catcher Chris Stewart in a trade from the Giants on the cusp of the season. The move definitely gave them peace of mind. With prospect Austin Romine out indefinitely with a back injury, the Yankees restored their depth by obtaining Stewart to replace him.

So they made a move based on an injury that occurred towards the end of spring training and added depth to their system after they lost some.  Sounds pretty sane so far.


But Stewart didn't exactly replace Romine. Stewart was placed on the major-league roster, forcing Francisco Cervelli, the primary backup the last three seasons, to the minors. The reason the Yankees demoted Cervelli and not Stewart was no fault of Cervelli. Everyone understands Cervelli is the better player, and should starter Russell Martin suffer an injury, presumably Cervelli would become the starter. Stewart would remain the backup.

Again, I'm still waiting to see how there is a curse.  Because they demoted their backup catcher, a move they did solely because he was the only one of the two with options remaining to be demoted?  And now he can get regular playing time in the minors (which he probably doesn't need, but gets it anyway) while the Yankees don't lose anyone important?  How would it have gone if the Yankees made this trade, then trying to demote Stewart lose him to waivers?  Then you'd be writing about the "Curse of Chris Stewart", wouldn't you?


I'm skipping his next two paragraphs.  This is how he ends:


This move will actually hurt the Yankees in the short term because Stewart, a career .200 hitter and defensive specialist, is not the all-around player Cervelli is. So to quell their concern about minor-league depth, they have taken a step backward on the major-league roster and needlessly punished Cervelli.

So, where's the evidence for the curse?  Just because Cervelli was demoted and they lost the first two games?  I figured I'd find something here about, ya know, the actual game being played.  And I checked the box score for the first two games.  Stewart, the backup catcher that ruined Cervelli, had a total of 0 PA and 0 chances in the field, meaning he effected a total of 0 plays and had 0 effect on the games.
St. Louis sent down Eduardo Sanchez before the season began.  After that, Scott Linebrink got hurt.  Maybe they're cursed too!

Montero For Pineda: Deliberations Continue

Well, deliberations should continue. It appears from talk radio, and general internet wide consensus that the Yankees were absolutely swindled in the Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda trade, but let’s reel that back for a minute.

Of the 4 players involved in the trade (Montero, Hector Noesi, Pineda, and Jose Campos) no given player has a full season in the major leagues yet. Pineda had a very good season as the Mariners No. 2 starter last season( 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .211 BAA over 171 innings in 28 starts) . So there’s a lot of potential there, and some of it has already been realized. There’s no telling what happens to those numbers when they’re adjusted for the AL East with a smaller home park, and more games against the potent lineups in Boston and Tampa Bay, but Pineda has shown a good bit of talent in his first season in the Majors, and clearly Brian Cashman believes he can repeat that kind of production for years to come.

Montero’s small sample numbers were impressive last fall, there’s no getting around that, but it happens time and again that players put up an excellent 2 month stretch and fizzle shortly thereafter. I certainly don’t expect that to be the case with Montero, his defense is really the only question mark I can come up with at the moment, but if he can be a serviceable catcher and carry a 30 HR bat, nobody’s going to really complain, and David Ortiz has managed quite a lucrative career despite only being valuable to AL teams as a great DH, worst backup first baseman in history combo.

Hector Noesi looked to be a pretty fair swingman, being able to spot start, or come out of the ‘pen as needed, but also only appeared in 30 games averaging a little under 2 innings per appearance. That is great, but there’s no shortage of cheap young players happy to spot start in the majors or fill a few of the middle innings for a team in need, so Noesi was a throw in given the Yankees rather deep AAA pitching roster.

Campos has put together good numbers in low A ball, but that’s all he’s got, 2 years in the Mariners farm system, and no higher than A ball so far, so there’s no telling what’ll come of that piece to the trade. Either Cashman was looking to save face and get a prospect packed in, or he really felt Campos has some fairly solid, potentially underrated upside that could be useful in a few years.

That said, so far Montero has managed 3 hits, 2 strikeouts, and no walks in 4 games for the Mariners.Meanwhile Pineda helped solve the Yankees rotation debate with a case of shoulder tendonitis landing him on the 15 day DL, but preceding that had looked pretty good through the spring, working out his changeup despite diminished velocity and a spare tire that Josh Beckett would proudly sport in the spring. Noesi has only pitched 3 innings to a 21.00 ERA, giving up 7 earned runs in his first start of the season (Losing to Yu Darvish and the Texas Rangers). So nobody’s gotten any “value” out of the trade yet, let’s all step back and realize that trading young players isn’t always about today, but about the several years of team control and cost certainty that have changed hands. There’s also another aspect to the trade that most people ignore: the team’s needs. The Yankees have had one of the most potent lineups in the majors for years, and losing Montero isn’t going to really change that, the Mariners are rebuilding and valued Montero’s bat (one of few in their lineup at the moment) and a potential No. 4 or 5 starter over Pineda who projected as their No. 2 again behind Felix Hernandez.

There’s no shortage of people prognosticating about this trade right now, but we all need to step back and realize that there is so much more to this trade than the first month of the 2012 season, and calling this a total loss is baseless and quite frankly stupid.