Hall of Rage

OK, the new player in the Hall of Fame is Deacon White.

Do I agree with this pick?  In a word, no.  I don't think any of the players on the ballot were that worthy this year, and I think we've got enough of the pre 1800 guys in already, although I think we probably shouldn't have as many of them as we do, maybe in a separate part where we honor the initial greats that gave way to the Ty Cobbs and Babe Ruths and Hank Aarons of the world.

Deacon White was a catcher and third baseman (which he was more of) in the very early years of baseball.  He wasn't too bad, an OPS+ of 127, but had an OBP of 346 and a SLG of 392.  He averaged roughly a HR a year, which was probably average back then.  In fact, I'd imagine that all of his stats are fairly typical for a decent hitter in his time.  His 127 OPS+ is like 200th all time (no joke).

That's the thing, when I look at his numbers, he looks mostly like a typical guy from his time and nothing really stands out for me.  Where is the dominance?  Where is the greatness?  He was a fine player in his day, but so were guys like Harold Baines and Fred Lynn.  Is anyone arguing for them to be inducted?  I hope not.

This guy cannot be an all time great.  This is why I've been slaving over the data for half a year looking at every Hall of Fame Player.  We've got to strive to be better than that.

I've read plenty of articles that say he was a superstar of the 1870s.  The venerable Bill James even thinks he should be inducted.  But, lets be real here for a moment.  The 1870s were a long time ago.  I agree that the Hall has a duty to honor the past.  But is he one of the greatest of all time?  I don't think he is.  He definitely has his place as an important person in the history of baseball, but not as a legendary player.  If you do, good, I just think there are better players that aren't in the Hall yet.

Edit: If the HoF puts him in as a Pioneer or something along those lines, then I fully agree with that decision.

Do You Ever Feel Like a Plastic BAGS?

With one career Astro down, lets look at the other one in Jeff Bagwell.  I know it’s going to sound strange to hear, but I had the utmost respect for Bags when he was playing.  Despite the fact that it seemed like he carried a bat designed specifically to torture the Cardinals pitching, he was a classy player.

So lets take a look at Mr. Bagwell:

Good Idea: Bagwell was the premiere first baseman in the NL in the 90s (until Mac showed up at least).  Despite playing a long time in the power suppressing Astrodome, he managed to rack up 449 career HR in 7797 AB for an average of 1 HR every 17.4 AB.  For reference, that’s better than Mel Ott, Joe DiMaggio and Ernie Banks, as well as lots of other HoF bats.  We’re talking great power numbers here.   He was a solid baserunner (6.5 BsR from Fangraphs-not huge, but good for a big guy like him), great defender (59.1 Tzr) and of course was a great hitter (405 wOBA and 149 wRC+ and 297 AVG for those who care about those things).  He played 15 years, and only once did he have a full season that is less than 4 WAR, which was his second to last year.  That means he only once had a mediocre full season, and played nearly every day for those 15 years.  There is no statistical reason for which he shouldn’t be inducted.

Bad Idea: Bags did play in the steroid era, so all of his numbers and especially the power numbers are suspect.  His rate stats are beautiful, but his raw totals are small due to playing only 15 years, and him being hurt for the last few of his career.  So it’s hard to endorse a power hitting first baseman that only had 449 HR, when some other guys like Gehrig, Foxx and Musial are first basemen in the HoF and all had many more HR than Bags did.  Part of it is the Astrodome robbing him of some, but he’s also 37^th in SLG, below guys like Carlos Delgado and Lance Berkman who were both contemporaries of his.  He’s good, but maybe not quite good enough for induction.

Verdict: I don’t care about supposed steroid users.  Either they used (Mac, Palmeiro, Clemens, Bonds, Sosa) or they didn’t.  Yes, we don’t know and will never know for sure.  However, I don’t think it’s a bad thing to induct roid users.  The Hall is a place that remembers its history.  Do we really want to forget how much fun we had in the Summer of 98?  I sure don’t.  I had loads of fun, roids or not, and most of you did too.  If we aren’t going to induct the best of the best from that era (with mentioning the era on their plaques), then we induct no one.

Beyond that, Bags has a score of 183 on my calculator, which is no doubt automatic induction.  By my mark, that would make him the 4^th best 1B in the Hall.  The only reason why he isn’t in is due to bullshit steroid speculation, which as you may be able to tell, I’m tired of.

Here’s what I propose for steroid users: If it’s known, put it on their plaque so future generations can judge them accordingly.  If there is no proof and only speculation, vote normally.  If a player is revealed as a steroid user after induction, set up a committee to vote on whether or not he should remain inducted.  If the consensus is No, then ceremoniously remove his plaque.  Otherwise, just vote like normal.  Please.  It’ll be less stressful on all of us.

And, it looks like there's a new player in the Hall.  I'll look closely at this guy next couple of days and get a report on him.

David Wright, the Golden Boy in Blue and Orange.

There have been rumors of the Mets tossing out contract offers to David Wright trying to extend their 29 year old 3rd baseman. He had a great year offensively as most would expect. His power wasn’t exactly overwhelming, but he did have 21 knocks with a .306 batting average and a .391 OBP. The question I’m posing is, in Wright’s shoes, why/why not accept a solid offer from the Mets? The comparables are obvious with Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria having both signed six year 100 million dollar extensions in recent memory. Both were however multiple years from free agency, and on winning franchises.

Wright is for better or worse, the face of the New York Mets for at least one more season. He does control how much longer he is part of that dumpster fire however, and could opt to take his show on the road after the season, possibly parking himself in a city where a .500 record isn’t a monumental achievement, but is instead a disappointment of the highest order. Hell, he’s already in a city that follows that mantra he just happens to be in the wrong borough. Wright has been almost as rock solid as a player can be, having only missed significant time once in his career. He also plays well above average defense at 3rd, which isn’t exactly amazing, but when coupled with his above average bat, and his solid pop makes Wright an incredible threat. Wright could very easily decline to talk contracts with the Mets until they show dedication to making the team competitive, or the season is over.

The debate for Wright will hinge squarely on how much he values the stability of the new contract vs the potential for a bigger contract with a contending team. Obviously the Yankees, Nationals, Tigers, and Rays are locked into long term 3rd base commitments, however the Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, and White Sox could all be potential suitors for the impending free agent. Wright has stated his intention to play his entire career with the Mets, and that in and of itself is commendable, however he will be sacrificing money, and potentially his chance at winning a world series to play for the city’s junior team. Wright may also be somewhat burned by the fact that so much has been written about what he has stated as his preference to be private negotiations between him and the team. Some if not all of that may be the team jockeying to get the contract negotiations handled quickly, it may also be Wright’s agent trying to find a way to gain leverage with the team, this has only served to ruffle Wright’s feathers however, and may not positively impact the negotiations regardless of who has made the information public.

Ultimately I think Wright will resign with the Mets, though I question whether or not he would be willing to take less money over the life of the contract, or take significant deferrals to keep the annual spending limit more reasonable for the team and see them spend at another position of need. Wright would find himself a very lucrative contract on the open market, there’s no doubt there, but how much is enough from the team that he’s played with his whole career? Will Wright be more concerned with his pay check, or his team’s long term flexibility is yet to be seen, however Wright may be saying all the right things publically but is secretly preparing himself for the free agent market next season. the 7 year extension he’s reportedly seeking is certainly possible given his history of durability and reliable play but whether or not he’ll price himself out for his current team is ultimately a very real possibility. The Mets are not contenders right now and signing a few players long term may not be the correct path to take for a rebuilding team. If Wright takes a contract from the Mets I’d expect it to run longer than the 6 years his comparables have received given his proximity to free agency but I doubt that the Mets front office is smart enough to frontload the contract and may hamstring themselves down the road with an aging third baseman on a big money contract. 7 years, 120MM is certainly possible but that doesn’t leave the team with as much payroll flexibility as they need to compete.

Good Idea, Bad Idea-Biggio And The Hall of Fame

Wow, it’s been a while.  There’s practically dust on here it’s been so long since I’ve done a post.  But, enough of that, let’s get to what I know really well, the Hall of Fame.

Since we last spoke, I revamped my study and took many things into account when looking at each and every player in the HoF.  Not to toot my own horn, but I feel as if I am an expert in the field compared to others, mostly because I have studied the numbers a lot and dove very hard into the analysis of every player.

This ballot coming up is an exciting one.  Here are the first time eligible players on the 2013 HoF Ballot:

 Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Julio Franco, Shawn Green, Steve Finley, Roberto Hernandez, Jeff Cirillo, Jose Valentin, Reggie Sanders, Jeff Conine, Jose Mesa, Royce Clayton, Bob Wickman, Ryan Klesko, Aaron Sele, Woody Williams, Rondell White, Mike Lieberthal, Tony Batista, Mike Stanton, Sandy Alomar Jr., Damian Miller, Todd Walker

Boy, are there some big names on that list.  And that is just the new guys.  Obviously, it’s an exercise in futility to go through each name to determine hall worthiness.  I plan on going over the first 7 guys on this ballot, along with some returning guys, before inductions are announced.

And, given the fact that there is currently an article on MLB.com about him discussing his chances for the Hall, let’s start with Craig Biggio.

Go here to find his stats, both standard and advanced.

Good Idea: I’ll just get the big one out of the way, he had 3000 hits.  3060 hits to be exact.  He also had a good average, played multiple challenging positions (most famously catcher and second base).  As a second baseman, he had really good secondary abilities (good OBP and really really good SLG) so he was a top offensive second baseman in his time.  I’d probably say that, outside of Ryne Sandberg, I don’t think there was necessarily a better offensive second baseman.  Maybe Kent, and I’d probably give you that one, but he should have been playing first base most of his career.  It’s probably because of guys like Biggio and Sandberg and Kent that we have guys like Cano and Utley as big time hitters at second base.  He created a lot of runs, and did so at a pretty high frequency for a guy at secondbase and catcher.

Bad Idea: Why does everyone bring up the 3000 hits?  It’s a nice round number, but it took him 12000+ PAs to get there!  That’s a long time to get there, and it was pretty obvious his last few years that he was just trying to get to that number.  His OBP was good, but also 10 points below that of a HoF second baseman.  His career WAR compares nicely to 2B (despite being 4 fewer than typical), but he only had a few GREAT seasons (years with 5+ WAR), and one outstanding year (had a 9+ season once).  He was a really good player for a long period of time, but not a great player.

Verdict: In my new system of grading for the HoF, he would get a B against all second basemen, ranking just slightly ahead of Jackie Robinson.  When it comes down to it, Biggio created a lot of runs, played tough positions, and played a long time.  While I’m not fond of that last attribute, the other two are more important to me.  I’d gladly let Biggio into the Hall, from either a SABR or a traditional standpoint.  I just wouldn’t use “3000 hits!” as my opening line.

More to come soon folks.  This felt great.

Jason Giambi: Manager?

So Jason Giambi says he’s willing to hang up the spikes if he gets a crack at the manager’s office. It’s an interesting proposition to be sure, some will paint him as an oaf with a bat in his hands which I feel is a bit harsh, and others will question his lack of experience to wit there is no argument here. Something I truly believe is that the superstars have a harder time adjusting to the managers chair, they expect that others, like themselves, are able to just go out and “do it”. There are many players on major league rosters who must work tirelessly to earn their keep, and while Giambi made his mistakes, he also had significant gaps in his game and has made a reasonably successful transition to a bench role.

Giambi isn’t necessarily a student of the game in the truest sense, he was a masher who played adequate defense at first base. His struggles however are the things that could help him become an effective if not stellar manager. Having played under Joe Torre could even have taught him how not to use your bullpen. Giambi has played the part of the quiet leader for a while in his baseball career, and if he’s given the opportunity to manage he could bring the same stoic even handed approach to coaching. How much he understands about the more situational aspects of the game is debatable though, Jason may be more of a players manager, but given his background as a masher would he be one to recognize the occasional need for smallball plays? Bunting runners over, pinch hitting for the pitcher, etc wouldn’t necessarily be his strongest points, but if he’s seriously considering management he may have been quietly studying all of this for years.

I have trouble seeing a player like Giambi making the comment that he’d like to be given the opportunity to be a manager without having put some serious thought into it. Just because outwardly he’s not a brilliant baseball mind doesn’t mean that the cogs aren’t spinning inside. Former Yankees teammate Robin Ventura has successfully transitioned into the managerial position, though his White Sox missed the playoffs they did out perform expectations and it came down to the last few games of the year for them to fall out of the playoff picture. There has also been talk of former Oakland A’s teammate and current Yankee Eric Chavez developing an interest in becoming a manager. Chavez, I think, would make a better manager than Giambi, he’s had to battle a lot of injuries in his career, he’s a very well spoken player, and from what I have read he has been discussing tactics with Joe Girardi with some great frequency. For his part though, Giambi is a smarter man than the media may allow one to see, and I cannot believe he would make a push to become a manager if he weren’t fairly well prepared. The real question would be execution, and for that we’ll need to see if he gets the job.

Jeremy Guthrie's Next Contract

Trying to make sense out of Jeremy Guthrie is almost like trying to explain the color red to a blind man. Guthrie was drafted by the Mets, wouldn’t sign, drafted by the Pirates, wouldn’t sign, and finally is the 22nd pick of the 2002 draft. He couldn’t put it together in three short seasons with Cleveland, they give up on him and let him go to Baltimore where he promptly turns it on for two years, follows it up with an inexplicable stinker in ‘09. Has a great year after that, then a weaker, but still respectable year in 2011. They sent him to the Rockies for two effective pitchers in Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. He was so bad that he was traded after ½ of a season for Jonathan Sanchez. He emerges as the replacement for Sanchez in the KC rotation and turns it on again.

It appears that Guthrie really flourishes when people give up on him. He can really turn it on, just concentrate on pitching, but not until he makes himself a burden first. He is a free agent after this season, and the market is thin on top flight pitchers. Guthrie was truly awful in the first ½ this season, just terrible, So much so that he was relegated to the bullpen to limit the damage he could do in a given week.  In all fairness, the time in Colorado was the worst he’s been for any extended stretch in his professional career, and a lot of it can be attributed to his home starts in Coors field, the thin air ruins the break of a curveball, and in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances at Coors this year, he gave up 14 home runs and 20 doubles over 41 and ⅔ innings. By comparison he’s made 8 starts at Kauffman Stadium this year and has given up 5 doubles, 3 homers, and pitched 12 & ⅓ more innings.

He is also a flyball pitcher, so that much cannot be excused, if you’re letting opposing hitters put the ball in the air in Coors field you may as well just let them put it in the seats and jog around the bases. All in all, the first ½ of this season could be considered a wash for Guthrie who was all but set up to fail from the onset. Poor decisions made by the Colorado Rockies front office may well negatively impact Guthrie’s next contract unfairly.

Looking at the 2013 free agent class for starters we’re faced with a near formulaic grouping: There are a few excellent starters coming off strong years in their late 20s/early 30s looking to sign a big multi year deal (Zack Greinke, Jake Peavy, and to a lesser extent Edwin Jackson), there are older pitchers who are still productive enough to look for a multi year contract, but are realistically going to receive a one year contract (Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Millwood, and Ryan Dempster), effective innings eaters (Joe Blanton, Joe Saunders), reclamation projects (Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka), and guys who aren’t living up to their potential (Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, arguably Carlos Zambrano). There’s no particular group that Guthrie fits into, he was terrible for ½ of a year, and he’s been an ace for ½ of a year. What do you do with that?

I think that many teams will be wary of the hot and cold nature of Guthrie’s performance but some are bound to be enticed by his potential. He’s got a successful track record, but has had bouts with ineffectiveness that have made his ace like potential difficult to count on. I am unsure of whether Guthrie will receive a multi-year contract, he’s 34 so counting on a 3+ year contract is unlikely, but maybe a 2 year contract somewhere around an annual value of 8 Million is not out of the question, but many teams may offer more on a 1 year contract with a 2nd year team option, maybe 10 million with a 2 million buyout and a 10 million 2nd year? Someone may be willing to overpay for his services given his track record but this season has certainly made it difficult to assess his true value to an acquiring team. There will certainly be suitors who are willing to give him a shot, possibly someone in the NL west, or the rebuilding Astros. In his position I may be one to look for a chance at the playoffs though, possibly accepting a 1 year deal with the Rays, White Sox, A’s, Yankees, Nationals, Braves, etc. would be in line with getting a chance at the championship. The Royals may make a play to keep the Stanford grad in their rotation, and there may be some interest in the NL Central from teams like the Cubbies, a pitcher like Guthrie can be valuable trade bait at the deadline if his contract is reasonable, so he may be a good gamble for a team that won’t likely be in the playoff hunt, but is looking to compete in a few years time.

The Second NL Wild Card and the Teams that Want It

Something of a departure from the AL wild card picture, where all of the teams that are in the wild card race are close enough together that either/both of the spots could change hands at a moment’s notice, the NL is a totally different ballgame. Seven games separate the Braves and the Cardinals, and every team that’s chasing the cards are closer to being .500 teams than they are to being true playoff contenders. Also in a strange turn of events, just about everyone in the hunt for this last playoff spot is facing a reasonably tough schedule down the final stretch with not a single team in the mix having less than 6 games against current playoff bound opponents.

The Cardinals are in line for seven more games against sub par competition before closing out the season with three games against the Nationals and three more against the Reds. The four remaining games against Houston, and three against the Cubbies should have the Redbirds looking good going into that final stretch, and if ever there was a time to try to put some distance between themselves and the pack, it would behoove them to do so now.

The Brewers are two and a half games behind the Cards and have a marginally harder schedule to combat to actually make the playoffs this year, Currently in the midst of a three game set against the even .500 Pirates, they are also facing up against three games with the Reds and a four game set with the Nationals but they close the season with three against Houston and then the Padres, the Brewers need to gain ground during this last tough stretch and hope they can strike while the Cards are closing out the season against two playoff locks.

The Dodgers having split yesterday’s doubleheader are now two behind the Cards for the final playoff spot and aren’t exactly looking at a bunch of pushovers in the next few days to help them make their playoff push. They finish up a three game set against the Nats today followed by three games against the Reds. They get a six game respite from playoff bound opponents with three and three against the Padres and the Rockies but finish the season with a three game set against the Giants who, despite losing Melky Cabrera’s juiced up bat, gone 22 - 9 since the Melk Man’s forced vacation. The Dodgers certainly have enough talent on the team to make it through to the playoffs, but they will have to play their asses off against some stiff competition just to have a shot.

The Phillies are mathematically in the race, and if they had a cushy schedule to close the season, it might be a totally different story here, but with six games against the Nationals and three against the Braves in their last 13 I’m gonna have to call it for Phillies’ fans, there is no postseason this year, at least the Eagles are 2-0 so far.

The Pirates are similarly mathematically still involved but they’ve really only got the next eight games to make up ground before closing the year with three against the Reds and three against the Braves. The Pirates have been streaky enough to rattle off a few wins quickly, but they’ve faded over the second half and they might need another year or two to get over the hump and really make a postseason push.

Given the upcoming schedules for these postseason hopefuls, I don’t see too much reason to write the Cards out of it, honestly the Dodgers are just massively underperforming and while the Brewers have been hot of late (seriously, they haven’t lost two games in a row since before August 20th) it may just be too little too late.